Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home

Voting for Victors: Why Violent Actors Win Postwar Elections

  • Sarah Zukerman Daly (a1)

Abstract

Why do citizens elect political actors who have perpetrated violence against the civilian population? Despite their use of atrocities, political parties with deep roots in the belligerent organizations of the past win postwar democratic elections in countries around the world. This article uses new, cross-national data on postwar elections globally between 1970 and 2010, as well as voting, survey, archival, and interview data from El Salvador. It finds that belligerents’ varied electoral success after wars can be explained not by their wartime levels of violence or use of electoral coercion, but by the distribution of military power at the end of conflict. It argues that militarily stronger belligerents are able to claim credit for peace, which translates into a reputation for competence on the provision of security. This enables them to own the security valence issue, which tends to crosscut cleavages, and to appeal to swing voters. The stronger belligerents’ provision of security serves to offset and justify their use of atrocities, rendering their election rational. This article sheds light on political life after episodes of violence. It also contributes to understanding security voting and offers insights into why people vote in seemingly counterintuitive ways.

Copyright

References

Hide All
Acemoglu, Daron, James, A. Robinson, , and Rafael, J. Santos, . 2013. “The Monopoly of Violence: Evidence from Colombia.” Journal of the European Economic Association 11, no. S1: 544. doi: 10.1111/j.1542-4774.2012.01099.x.
Allison, , Michael, E. 2010. “The Legacy of Violence on Post-Civil War Elections: The Case of El Salvador.” Studies in Comparative International Development 45, no. 1: 104–24. doi: 10.1007/s12116-009-9056-x.
Anderson, , Leslie, E., and Lawrence, C. Dodd, . 2005. Learning Democracy: Citizen Engagement and Electoral Choice in Nicaragua 1990–2001. Chicago, Ill.: University of Chicago Press.
Arias, , Enrique, Desmond. 2017. Criminal Enterprises and Governance in Latin America and the Caribbean. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.
Arias, Eric, Larreguy, Horacio, Marshall, John, and Querubín, Pablo. 2018. “Priors Rule: When Do Malfeasance Revelations Help or Hurt Incumbent Parties?” NBER Working Paper no. 24888. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research. doi: 10.3386/w24888.
Balcells, Laia. 2012. “The Consequences of Victimization on Political Identities: Evidence from Spain.” Politics & Society 40, no. 3: 311–47. doi: 10.1177/0032329211424721.
Bass, Gary Jonathan. 2002. Stay the Hand of Vengeance: The Politics of War Crimes Tribunals. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Bateson, Regina. 2012. “Crime Victimization and Political Participation.” American Political Science Review 106, no. 3: 570–87. doi: 10.1017/S0003055412000299.
Bateson, Regina. 2015. “Persecution and Populism: Analyzing the Electoral Success of Guatemala’s FRG.” Manuscript. MIT.
Beath, Andrew, Christia, Fotini, and Enikolopov, Ruben. 2012. “Winning Hearts and Minds through Development? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Afghanistan.” Policy Research Working Paper no. WPS 6129. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. At http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/455111467989984735/Winning-hearts-and-minds-through-development-evidence-from-a-field-experiment-in-Afghanistan, accessed July 11, 2019.
Beber, Bernd, Roessler, Philip, and Scacco, Alexandra. 2014. “Intergroup Violence and Political Attitudes: Evidence from a Dividing Sudan.” Journal of Politics 76, no. 3: 649–65. doi: 10.1017/S0022381614000103.
Bellows, John, and Miguel, Edward. 2009. “War and Local Collective Action in Sierra Leone.” Journal of Public Economics 93, no. 11–12: 1144–57. doi: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2009.07.012.
Berman, Eli, Jacob, N. Shapiro, , and Joseph, H. Felter, . 2011. “Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq.” Journal of Political Economy 119, no. 4: 766819. doi: 10.1086/661983.
Bermeo, Nancy. 2016. “On Democratic Backsliding.” Journal of Democracy 27, no. 1: 519. doi: 10.1353/jod.2016.0012.
Berrebi, Claude, and Esteban, F. Klor, . 2008. “Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism? Direct Evidence from the Israeli Electorate.” American Political Science Review 102, no. 3: 279301. doi: 10.1017/S0003055408080246.
Bierman, Noah. 2016. “Not All Immigrants Are Voting against Donald Trump.” Los Angeles Times, November 8. At https://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-election-day-2016-not-all-immigrants-are-voting-against-1478621533-htmlstory.html, accessed June 7, 2019.
Blattman, Christopher. 2009. “From Violence to Voting: War and Political Participation in Uganda.” American Political Science Review 103, no. 2: 231–47. doi: 10.1017/S0003055409090212.
Bleck, Jaimie, and Michelitch, Kristin. 2017. “Capturing the Airwaves, Capturing the Nation? A Field Experiment on State-Run Media Effects in the Wake of a Coup.” Journal of Politics 79, no. 3: 873–89. doi: 10.1086/690616.
Bleck, Jaimie, and Walle, Nicolas van de. 2012. “Valence Issues in African Elections: Navigating Uncertainty and the Weight of the Past.” Comparative Political Studies 46, no. 11: 1394–421. doi: 10.1177/0010414012453448.
Boas, , Taylor, C., and Daniel, F. Hidalgo, . 2011. “Controlling the Airwaves: Incumbency Advantage and Community Radio in Brazil.” American Journal of Political Science 55, no. 4: 869–85. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00532.x.
Bonanno, , George, A., Galea, Sandro, Bucciarelli, Angela, and Vlahov, David. 2006. “Psychological Resilience after Disaster: New York City in the Aftermath of the September 11th Terrorist Attack.” Psychological Science 17, no. 3: 181–86. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01682.x.
Brancati, Dawn, and Jack, L. Snyder, . 2011. “Rushing to the Polls: The Causes of Premature Postconflict Elections.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 55, no. 3: 469–92. doi: 10.1177/0022002711400863.
Brancati, Dawn, and Jack, L. Snyder, . 2012. “Time to Kill: The Impact of Election Timing on Postconflict Stability.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 57, no. 5: 822–53. doi: 10.1177/0022002712449328.
Calvo, Ernesto, and Murillo, Maria Victoria. 2019. Non-Policy Politics: Richer Voters, Poorer Voters, and the Diversification of Electoral Strategies. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.
Cameron, A. Colin, , Jonah, B. Gelbach, , and Douglas, L. Miller, . 2008. “Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors.” Review of Economics and Statistics 90, no. 3: 414–27. doi: 10.1162/rest.90.3.414.
Canetti, Daphna, Brian, J. Hall, , Carmit, Rappaport, and Wayne, Carly. 2013. “Exposure to Political Violence and Political Extremism: A Stress-Based Process.” European Psychologist 18, no. 4: 263–72. doi: 10.1027/1016-9040/a000158.
Carreras, Miguel. 2013. “The Impact of Criminal Violence on Regime Legitimacy in Latin America.” Latin American Research Review 48, no. 3: 85107. doi: 10.1353/lar.2013.0040.
CIDAI. 2004. “La campaña subterránea de ARENA.” Proceso 1085. San Salvador, El Salvador: Centro de Información, Documentación y Apoyo a la Investigación, Universidad Centroamericana. At http://www.uca.edu.sv/publica/proceso/pro1085.html#Editoral, accessed June 25, 2019.
Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica. Infographics on Violent Events. At http://centrodememoriahistorica.gov.co/observatorio/infografias/, accessed June 7, 2019.
Christia, Fotini. 2012. Alliance Formation in Civil Wars. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.
Cienfuegos, Fermán. 1982. Commander Ferman Cienfuegos Speaks. Los Angeles, Calif.: Solidarity Committee.
Coker, Margaret. 2018. “US Takes a Risk: Old Iraqi Enemies Are Now Allies.” New York Times, May 11. At https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/11/world/middleeast/iraq-iran-election-enemies.html, accessed June 7, 2019.
Collier, Paul, and Pedro, C. Vicente, . 2014. “Votes and Violence: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Nigeria.” Economic Journal 124, no. 574: 327–55. doi: 10.1111/ecoj.12109.
Condra, , Luke, N., and Jacob, N. Shapiro, . 2012. “Who Takes the Blame? The Strategic Effects of Collateral Damage.” American Journal of Political Science 56, no. 1: 167–87. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00542.x.
Cruz, José Miguel, and González, Luis Armando. 1997. “Magnitud de la Violencia en El Salvador.” Estudios Centroamericanos 588, October: 977–92. At http://www.uca.edu.sv/publica/eca/588art2.html?hc_location=ufi, accessed June 7, 2019.
Cunningham, , David, E. 2006. “Veto Players and Civil War Duration.” American Journal of Political Science 50, no. 4: 875–92. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00221.x.
Cunningham, , David, E., Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Salehyan, Idean. 2009. “It Takes Two: A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53, no. 4: 570–97. doi: 10.1177/0022002709336458.
Cunningham, , David, E., Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Salehyan, Idean. 2013. “Non-State Actors in Civil Wars: A New Dataset.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 30, no. 5: 516–31. doi: 10.1177/0738894213499673.
Daly, Sarah Zukerman. 2011. “The Roots of Coercion and Insurgency: Exploiting the Counterfactual Case of Honduras.” Conflict, Security & Development 11, no. 2: 145–74. doi: 10.1080/14678802.2011.572454.
Daly, Sarah Zukerman. 2016. Organized Violence After Civil War: The Geography of Recruitment in Latin America. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.
Daly, Sarah Zukerman. 2019a. “Replication data for: Voting for Victors: Why Violent Actors Win Postwar Elections.” Harvard Dataverse, V1. doi: 10.7910/DVN/IGIJGG.
Daly, Sarah Zukerman. 2019b. “Supplementary data for: Voting for Victors: Why Violent Actors Win Postwar Elections.” doi: 10.1017/S0043887119000091.
De Figueiredo, , Miguel, F. P., Daniel, F. Hidalgo, , and Kasahara, Yuri. 2012. “When Do Voters Punish Corrupt Politicians? Experimental Evidence from Brazil.” Manuscript. University of California, Berkeley. At http://cega.berkeley.edu/assets/cega_events/44/CEGA_ResearchRetreat2012_deFigueiredo_Paper.pdf, accessed June 25, 2019.
De Zeeuw, Jeroen. 2008. From Soldiers to Politicians: Transforming Rebel Movements after Civil War. Boulder, Col.: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Dorff, Cassy. 2017. “Violence, Kinship Networks, and Political Resilience: Evidence from Mexico.” Journal of Peace Research 54, no. 4: 558–73. doi: 10.1177/0022343317691329.
Dresden, Jennifer Raymond. 2017. “From Combatants to Candidates: Electoral Competition and the Legacy of Armed Conflict.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 34, no. 3: 240–63. doi: 10.1177/0738894215593676.
Dunning, Thad. 2011. “Fighting and Voting: Violent Conflict and Electoral Politics.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 55, no. 3: 327–39. doi: 10.1177/0022002711400861.
Egan, Patrick. 2008. “Policy Initiatives and Valence Advantages in the Spatial Model of Elections.” Manuscript. NYU. Accessed October 11, 2017.
El Diario de Hoy. 1994. Archives. San Salvador, El Salvador.
Elster, Jon. Forthcoming. “Enthusiasm and Anger in History.” Inquiry.
Enikolopov, Ruben, Petrova, Maria, and Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina. 2011. “Media and Political Persuasion: Evidence from Russia.” American Economic Review 101, no. 7: 3253–85. doi: 10.1257/aer.101.7.3253.
Entman, , Robert, M. 2004. Projections of Power: Framing News, Public Opinion, and US Foreign Policy. Chicago, Ill.: University of Chicago Press.
Faiola, Anthony, and Lopes, Marina. 2018. “Brazilian Presidential Election Goes to a Second Round as Far-Right Candidate Narrowly Misses an Outright Win.” Washington Post, October 7. At https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/brazilians-vote-in-presidential-election-with-a-trump-fan-as-front-runner/2018/10/07/7d82d512-c65d-11e8-9c0f-2ffaf6d422aa_story.html?utm_term=.e320ad533181, accessed June 7, 2019.
Fearon, , James, D. 2004. “Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others?Journal of Peace Research 41, no. 3: 275301. doi: 10.1177/0022343304043770.
Fehr, Ryan, Michele, J. Gelfand, , and Nag, Monisha. 2010. “The Road to Forgiveness: A Meta-Analytic Synthesis of Its Situational and Dispositional Correlates.” Psychological Bulletin 136, no. 5: 894914. doi: 10.1037/a0019993.
Fergusson, Leopoldo, Juan, F. Vargas, , and Mauricio, A. Vela, . 2013. “Sunlight Dis-infects? Free Media in Weak Democracies.” Documento CEDE no. 2013–14. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2229506.
Fernandez, , Kenneth, E., and Kuenzi, Michele. 2010. “Crime and Support for Democracy in Africa and Latin America.” Political Studies 58, no. 3: 450–71. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9248.2009.00802.x.
Fiorina, , Morris, P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.
Flores, Thomas Edward, and Nooruddin, Irfan. 2012. “The Effect of Elections on Postconflict Peace and Reconstruction.” Journal of Politics 74, no. 2: 558–70. doi: 10.1017/s0022381611001733.
Fortna, Virginia Page. 2008. Does Peacekeeping Work? Shaping Belligerents’ Choices after Civil War. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Fortna, Virginia Page, and Huang, Reyko. 2012. “Democratization after Civil War: A Brush-Clearing Exercise.” International Studies Quarterly 56, no. 4: 801–08. doi: 10.2307/41804834.
Frank, Thomas. 2004. What’s the Matter with Kansas? How Conservatives Won the Heart of America. New York, N.Y.: Metropolitan Press.
García-Ponce, Omar, Zeitzoff, Thomas, and Wantchekon, Leonard. 2018. “Are Voters Too Afraid to Tackle Corruption? Survey and Experimental Evidence from Mexico.” Manuscript. Univerity of California, San Diego. At http://omargarciaponce.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/DF_experiment.pdf, accessed June 25, 2019.
Gibson, , James, L., and Gouws, Amanda. 1999. “Truth and Reconciliation in South Africa: Attributions of Blame and the Struggle over Apartheid.” American Political Science Review 93, no. 3: 501–17. doi: 10.2307/2585571.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Wallensteen, Peter, Eriksson, Mikael, Sollenberg, Margareta, and Strand, Håvard. 2002. “Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A New Dataset.” Journal of Peace Research 39, no. 5: 615–37. doi: 10.1177/0022343302039005007.
Goldberg, Julie, Jennifer, S. Lerner, , and Philip, E. Tetlock, . 1999. “Rage and Reason: The Psychology of the Intuitive Prosecutor.” European Journal of Social Psychology 29, no. 5-6: 781–95. doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-0992(199908/09)29:5/6<781::AID-EJSP960>3.0.CO;2-3.
Gromes, Thorsten, and Ranft, Florian. 2016. “The Dataset on Post-Civil War Power and Compromise, 1990 –2012.” Working Paper no. 33. Frankfurt, Germany: Peace Research Institute Frankfurt. At https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/143823589.pdf, accessed June 25, 2019.
Grzymala-Busse, , Anna, M. 2002. Redeeming the Communist Past: The Regeneration of Communist Parties in East Central Europe. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Gurses, Mehmet, and David, T. Mason, . 2008. “Democracy Out of Anarchy: The Prospects for Post-Civil-War Democracy.” Social Science Quarterly 89, no. 2: 315–36. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-6237.2008.00534.x.
Sanín, Gutiérrez, Francisco, , and Wood, Elisabeth Jean. 2014. “Ideology in Civil War: Instrumental Adoption and Beyond.” Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2: 213–26. doi: 10.1177/0022343313514073.
Gutiérrez-Romero, Roxana. 2014. “An Inquiry into the Use of Illegal Electoral Practices and Effects of Political Violence and Vote-Buying.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 58, no. 8: 1500–27. doi: 10.1177/0022002714547902.
Hafner-Burton, , Emilie, M., Susan, D. Hyde, , and Ryan, S. Jablonski, . 2014. “When Do Governments Resort to Election Violence?British Journal of Political Science 44, no. 1: 149–79. doi: 10.1017/S0007123412000671.
Healy, Andrew, and Malhotra, Neil. 2013. “Retrospective Voting Reconsidered.” Annual Review of Political Science 16: 285306. doi: 10.1146/annurev-polisci-032211-212920.
Hidalgo, , Daniel, F., and Lessing, Benjamin. 2015. “Endogenous State Weakness in Violent Democracies: Paramilitaries at the Polls.” Manuscript. University of Chicago. At https://drive.google.com/file/d/1g3-S2zKglk5TxqXw2HE6MO_uIRP8WJ_O/view, accessed June 25, 2019.
Högbladh, Stina. 2011. “Peace Agreements 1975–2011: Updating the UCDP Peace Agreement Dataset.” In Pettersson, Therése and Themnér, Lotta, eds., States in Armed Conflict 2010. Uppsala University: Department of Peace and Conflict Research. At http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.739.1886&rep=rep1&type=pdf, accessed June 25, 2019.
Holland, Alisha. 2013. “Right on Crime? Conservative Party Politics and Mano Dura in El Salvador.” Latin American Research Review 48, no. 1: 4467. doi: 10.2307/41811587.
Holland, , Alisha, C. 2018. “Diminished Expectations: Redistributive Preferences in Truncated Welfare States.” World Politics 70, no. 4 (October): 555–94. doi: 10.10 17/S0043887118000096.
Hong, Ji Yeon, and Kang, Woo Chang. 2017. “Trauma and Stigma: The Long-Term Effects of Wartime Violence on Political Attitudes.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 34, no. 3: 264–86. doi: 10.1177/0738894215593683.
Huang, Reyko. 2016. The Wartime Origins of Democratization: Civil War, Rebel Governance, and Political Regimes. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.
Huber, , John, D., and Stanig, Piero. 2009. “Individual Income and Voting for Redistribution Across Democracies.” Manuscript. Columbia University. At http://www.columbia.edu/~jdh39/Site/Research_files/huber_stanig_voting.pdf, accessed June 25, 2019.
International Foundation for Electoral Systems. 1994. Election Observation El Salvador, March 20–April 24, 1994. Washington D.C.: International Foundation for Electoral Systems.
Ishiyama, John, and Widmeier, Michael. 2013. “Territorial Control, Levels of Violence, and the Electoral Performance of Former Rebel Political Parties after Civil Wars.” Civil Wars 15, no. 4: 531–50. doi: 10.1080/13698249.2013.853424.
IUDOP. 1994. Public Opinion Surveys. La Libertad, El Salvador: Instituto Universitario de Opinión Pública, Universidad Centroamericana University. At http://uca.edu.sv/publica/iudop, accessed June 25, 2019.
Jenkins, Nash. 2016. “Why Did the Philippines Just Elect a Guy Who Jokes About Rape as Its President?Time, May 10. At https://time.com/4324073/rodrigo-duterte-philippines-president-why-elected/, accessed June 25, 2019.
Jentzsch, Corinna. 2014. “Militias and the Dynamics of Civil Wars.” Ph.D. diss., Yale University. At https://search.proquest.com/docview/1659839429, accessed June 25, 2019.
Jhee, Byong-Kuen. 2008. “Economic Origins of Electoral Support for Authoritarian Successors: A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting in New Democracies.” Comparative Political Studies 41, no. 3: 362–88. doi: 10.1177/0010414007300694.
Johnson, Kenneth Lance. 1993. “Between Revolution and Democracy: Business Elites and the State in El Salvador during the 1980s.” Ph.D. diss., Tulane University. At https://digitallibrary.tulane.edu/islandora/object/tulane%3A25114, accessed June 25, 2019.
Kaltenthaler, Karl. 2018. “Some Sunnis Voted for a Shiite—And 3 More Take-aways from the Iraqi Election.” Conversation, May 24. At http://theconversation.com/some-sunnis-voted-for-a-shiite-and-3-more-takeaways-from-the-iraqi-election-86904, accessed June 7, 2019.
Kalyvas, , Stathis, N. 2006. The Logic of Violence in Civil War. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.
Karol, David, and Miguel, Edward. 2007. “The Electoral Cost of War: Iraq Casualties and the 2004 US Presidential Election.” Journal of Politics 69, no. 3: 633–48. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2508.2007.00564.x.
Kasara, Kimuli. 2016. “Electoral Geography and Conflict: Examining the Redistricting through Violence in Kenya.” Manuscript. Columbia University. At http://www.columbia.edu/~kk2432/elecgeog0316.pdf, accessed June 25, 2019.
Kibris, Arzu. 2011. “Funerals and Elections: The Effects of Terrorism on Voting Behavior in Turkey.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 55, no. 2: 220–47. doi: 10.1177/0022002710383664.
Kiewiet, , Roderick, D., and Rivers, Douglas. 1984. “A Retrospective on Retrospective Voting.” Political Behavior 6, no. 4: 369–93. doi: 10.1007/BF00987073.
Kinzer, Stephen. 2008. A Thousand Hills: Rwanda’s Rebirth and the Man Who Dreamed It. Hoboken, N.J.: John Wiley & Sons.
Kitschelt, Herbert, and Steven, I. Wilkinson, . 2007. “Citizen-Politician Linkages: An Introduction.” In Kitschelt, Herbert and Steven, I. Wilkinson, , eds., Patrons, Clients, and Policies: Patterns of Democratic Accountability and Political Competition. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.
Kreutz, Joakim. 2010. “How and When Armed Conflicts End: Introducing the UCDP Conflict Termination Dataset.” Journal of Peace Research 47, no. 2: 243–50. doi: 10.1177/0022343309353108.
Lasswell, , Harold, D. 1938. Propaganda Technique in the World War. New York, N.Y.: Peter Smith.
LAPOP. 1991. “The AmericasBarometer.” Latin American Public Opinion Project, Vanderbilt University. At www.LapopSurveys.org, accessed June 7, 2019.
LAPOP. 1995. “The AmericasBarometer.” Latin American Public Opinion Project, Vanderbilt University. At www.LapopSurveys.org, accessed June 7, 2019. La Prensa Gráfica. 1994. Archives. San Salvador, El Salvador.
Levitsky, , Steven, R., and Lucan, A. Way, . 2012. “Beyond Patronage: Violent Struggle, Ruling Party Cohesion, and Authoritarian Durability.” Perspectives on Politics 10, no. 4: 869–89. doi: 10.1017/S1537592712002861.
Lewis-Beck, , Michael, S., and Stegmaier, Mary. 2000. “Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes.” Annual Review of Political Science 3: 183-219. doi: 1094-2939/00/0623-0183.
Lindberg, , Staffan, I., Coppedge, Michael, Gerring, John, and Teorell, Jan. 2014. “V-Dem: A New Way to Measure Democracy.” Journal of Democracy 25, no. 3: 159–69. doi: 10.1353/jod.2014.0040.
Londoño, Ernesto, and Andreoni, Manuela. 2018. “Brazil Election: Jair Bolsonaro Heads to Runoff after Missing Outright Win.” New York Times, October 7. At https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/world/americas/jair-bolsonaro-brazil-election.html, accessed June 7, 2019.
Loxton, James Ivor. 2014. “Authoritarian Inheritance and Conservative Party-Building in Latin America.” Ph.D. diss., Harvard University. At https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/13070023, accessed June 25, 2019.
Loxton, James, and Mainwaring, Scott, eds. 2018. Life after Dictatorship: Authoritarian Successor Parties Worldwide. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.
Lupu, Noam. 2016. Party Brands in Crisis: Partisanship, Brand Dilution, and the Breakdown of Political Parties in Latin America. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.
Lupu, Noam, and Peisakhin, Leonid. 2017. “The Legacy of Political Violence across Generations.” American Journal of Political Science 61, no. 4: 836–51. doi: 10.1111/ajps.12327.
Lyall, Jason, Blair, Graeme, and Imai, Kosuke. 2013. “Explaining Support for Combatants during Wartime: A Survey Experiment in Afghanistan.” American Political Science Review 107, no. 4: 679705. doi: 10.1017/S0003055413000403.
Lyons, Terrence. 2002. “Postconflict Elections: War Termination, Democratization, and Demilitarizing Politics.” Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution, George Mason University, Working Paper no. 20. George Mason University. At http://mars.gmu.edu/bitstream/handle/1920/10693/SCAR_WP_20.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y, accessed June 25, 2019.
Mampilly, Zachariah Cherian. 2011. Rebel Rulers: Insurgent Governance and Civilian Life during War. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.
Manning, Carrie. 2008. The Making of Democrats: Elections and Party Development in Postwar Bosnia, El Salvador, and Mozambique. New York, N.Y.: Pal-grave MacMillan.
Mares, Isabela, and Young, Lauren. 2016. “Buying, Expropriating, and Stealing Votes.” Annual Review of Political Science 19: 267–88. doi: 10.1146/annurevpolisci-060514-120923.
Marten, Kimberly. 2006/07. “Warlordism in Comparative Perspective.” International Security 31, no. 3: 4173. doi: 10.1162/isec.2007.31.3.41.
Matanock, , Aila, M., and Staniland, Paul. 2018. “How and Why Armed Groups Participate in Elections.” Perspectives on Politics 16, no. 3: 710–27. doi: 10.1017/S1537592718001019.
McDermott, , Monika, L., and Panagopoulos, Costas. 2015. “Be All that You Can Be: The Electoral Impact of Military Service as an Information Cue.” Political Research Quarterly 68, no. 2: 293305. doi: 10.1177/1065912915572151.
McElhinny, , Vincent, J. 2006. “Inequality and Empowerment: The Political Foundations of Post-War Decentralization and Development in El Salvador, 1992–2000.” Ph.D. diss., University of Pittsburgh. At http://d-scholarship.pitt.edu/8223/, accessed June 25, 2019.
McGrattan, Cillian. 2013. Memory, Politics and Identity: Haunted by History. New York, N.Y.: Palgrave Macmillan.
Montgomery, Tommie Sue. 1982. Revolution in El Salvador: Origins and Evolution. Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press.
Mueller, , John, E. 1973. War, Presidents, and Public Opinion. New York, N.Y.: John Wiley & Sons.
Mukhopadhyay, Dipali. 2014. Warlords, Strongman Governors, and the State in Afghanistan. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.
Newhagen, , John, E. 1998. “TV News Images that Induce Anger, Fear, and Disgust: Effects on Approach-Avoidance and Memory.” Journal of Broadcasting and Electronic Media 42, no. 2: 265–76. doi: 10.1080/08838159809364448.
Nindorera, Willy. 2012. “The CNDD-FDD in Burundi: The Path from Armed to Political Struggle.” Berghof Transitions Series 10. At https://www.berghof-foundation.org/fileadmin/redaktion/Publications/Papers/Transitions_Series/transitions10_burundi.pdf, accessed June 25, 2019.
Paige, , Jeffery, M. 1997. Coffee and Power: Revolution and the Rise of Democracy in Central America. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.
Sandoval, Panamá, Ernesto, David. 2005. Los Guerreros de la Libertad. Andover, Mass.: Versal Books.
Paris, Roland. 2004. At War’s End: Building Peace after Civil Conflict. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.
Pérez, , Orlando, J. 2003. “Democratic Legitimacy and Public Insecurity: Crime and Democracy in El Salvador and Guatemala.” Political Science Quarterly 118, no. 4: 627–44. doi: 10.1002/j.1538-165X.2003.tb00408.x.
Petersen, , Roger, D. 2002. Understanding Ethnic Violence: Fear, Hatred, and Resentment in Twentieth-Century Eastern Europe. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Petersen, Roger, and Daly, Sarah Zukerman. 2010. “Revenge or Reconciliation: Theory and Method of Emotions in the Context of Colombia’s Peace Process.” In Bergsmo, Morten and Kalmanovitz, Pablo, eds., Law in Peace Negotiations, 2nd ed. Oslo, Norway: Forum for International Criminal and Humanitarian Law, Peace Research Institute Oslo. At http://www.toaep.org/ps-pdf/5-bergsmo-kalmanovitz-second, accessed June 25, 2019.
Petrocik, , John, R. 1996. “Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study.” American Journal of Political Science 40, no. 3: 825–50. doi: 10.2 307/2111797.
Pyes, Craig. 1983. Salvadoran Rightists: The Deadly Patriots. Albuquerque, N.M.: Albuquerque Journal.
Reno, William. 1998. Warlord Politics and African States. Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Robinson, , James, A., and Torvik, Ragnar. 2009. “The Real Swing Voter’s Curse.” American Economic Review, 99, no. 2: 310–15. doi: 10.1257/aer.99.2.310.
Roemer, , John, E. 1998. “Why the Poor Do Not Expropriate the Rich: An Old Argument in New Garb.” Journal of Public Economics 70, no. 3: 399424. doi: 10.1016/S0047-2727(98)00042-5.
Rothstein, Edward. 2011. “Not Forgotten.” New York Times, March 16. At https://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/arts/design/in-the-south-civil-war-has-not-been-forgotten.html, accessed June 7, 2019.
Rozenas, Arturas, Schutte, Sebastian, and Zhukov, Yuri. 2017. “The Political Legacy of Violence: The Long-Term Impact of Stalin’s Repression in Ukraine.” Journal of Politics 79, no. 4: 1147–61. doi: 10.1086/692964.
Rustad, Siri Aas, and Binningsbø, Helga Malmin. 2012. “A Price Worth Fighting For? Natural Resources and Conflict Recurrence.” Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 4: 531–46. doi: 10.1177/0022343312444942.
Samii, Cyrus. 2013. “Who Wants to Forgive and Forget? Transitional Justice Preferences in Postwar Burundi.” Journal of Peace Research 50, no. 2: 219–33. doi: 10.1177/0022343312463713.
Seligson, , Mitchell, A., and McElhinny, Vincent. 1996. “Low-Intensity Warfare, High-Intensity Death: The Demographic Impact of the Wars in El Salvador and Nicaragua.” Canadian Journal of Latin American and Caribbean Studies 21, no. 42: 211–41. doi: 10.1080/08263663.1996.10816742.
Silverman, Daniel. 2018. “What Shapes Civilian Beliefs about Violent Events? Experimental Evidence from Pakistan.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 63, no. 6: 1460–87. doi: 10.1177/0022002718791676.
Sindre, Gyda Marås. 2016. “Internal Party Democracy in Former Rebel Parties.” Party Politics 22, no. 4: 501–11. doi: 10.1177/1354068814550436.
Snyder, Jack, and Ballentine, Karen. 1996. “Nationalism and the Marketplace of Ideas.” International Security 21, no. 2: 540. doi: 10.1162/isec.21.2.5.
Söderberg, Mimmi. 2007. “From Rebellion to Politics: The Transformation of Rebel Groups to Political Parties in Civil War Peace Processes.” Ph.D. diss. Uppsala University.
Somers, , Margaret, R. 1994. “The Narrative Constitution of Identity: A Relational and Network Approach.” Theory and Society 23, no. 5: 605–49. doi: 10.1007/BF00992905.
Sprenkels, Ralph. 2011. “Roberto d’Aubuisson vs Schafik Handal: Militancy, Memory Work and Human Rights.” European Review of Latin American and Caribbean Studies 91, October: 1530. At www.jstor.org/stable/41305291.
Stahler-Sholk, Richard. 1994. “El Salvador’s Negotiated Transition: From Low-Intensity Conflict to Low-Intensity Democracy.” Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs 36, no. 4: 15. doi: 10.2307/166318.
Staniland, Paul. 2015. “Armed Groups and Militarized Elections.” International Studies Quarterly 59, no. 4: 694705. doi: 10.1111/isqu.12195.
Stanley, William. 1996. The Protection Racket State: Elite Politics, Military Extortion, and Civil War in El Salvador. Philadelphia, Pa.: Temple University Press.
Stanton, , Jessica, A. 2016. Violence and Restraint in Civil War: Civilian Targeting in the Shadow of International Law. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.
Steele, Abbey. 2011. “Electing Displacement: Political Cleansing in Apartadó, Colombia.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 55, no. 3: 423–45. doi: 10.1177/0022002711400975.
Stewart, , Megan, A. 2018. “Civil War as State-Making: Strategic Governance in Civil War.” International Organization 72, no. 1: 205–26. doi: 10.1017/S0020818317000418.
Stockmann, Daniela, and Mary, E. Gallagher, . 2011. “Remote Control: How the Media Sustain Authoritarian Rule in China.” Comparative Political Studies 44, no. 4: 436–67. doi: 10.1177/0010414010394773.
Stokes, , Donald, E. 1963. “Spatial Models of Party Competition.” American Political Science Review 57, no. 2: 368–77. doi: 10.2307/1952828.
Stokes, , Susan, C., Dunning, Thad, Nazareno, Marcelo, and Brusco, Valeria. 2013. Brokers, Voters, and Clientelism: The Puzzle of Distributive Politics. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.
Stover, Eric, and Harvey, M. Weinstein, , eds. 2004. My Neighbor, My Enemy: Justice and Community in the Aftermath of Mass Atrocity. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.
Taub, Amanda. 2017. “Why Americans Vote ‘Against Their Interest’: Partisan-ship.” New York Times, April 12. At https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/12/upshot/why-americans-vote-against-their-interest-partisanship.html?partner=bloomberg, accessed June 7, 2019.
Teigen, , Jeremy, M. 2013. “Military Experience in Elections and Perceptions of Issue Competence: An Experimental Study with Television Ads.” Armed Forces & Society 39, no. 3: 415–33. doi: 10.1177/0095327X12451561.
Thachil, Tariq. 2014. “Elite Parties and Poor Voters: Theory and Evidence from India.” American Political Science Review 108, no. 2: 454–77. doi: 10.1017/S0003055414000069.
Toft, Monica Duffy. 2009. Securing the Peace: The Durable Settlement of Civil Wars. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Trejo, Guillermo, and Ley, Sandra. 2018. “Why Did Drug Cartels Go to War in Mexico? Subnational Party Alternation, the Breakdown of Criminal Protection, and the Onset of Large-Scale Violence.” Comparative Political Studies 51, no. 7: 900–37. doi: 10.1177/0010414017720703.
United Nations Commission on the Truth for El Salvador. 1993. From Madness to Hope: The 12-Year War in El Salvador: Report of the Commission on the Truth for El Salvador. Report no. S/25500. New York, N.Y.: United Nations. At http://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/file/ElSalvador-Report.pdf, accessed June 25, 2019.
United Nations Peacebuilding Commission. 2009. “Report of the Secretary-General on Peacebuilding in the Immediate Aftermath of Conflict: Report of the Peacebuilding Commission.” Report no. A/63/881–S/2009/204. New York, N.Y.: United Nations.
Vaishnav, Milan. 2017. When Crime Pays: Money and Muscle in Indian Politics. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.
Vickers, George, Spence, Jack, and Huff, Melrose. 1994. “Elections: The Right Consolidates Power.” NACLA Report on the Americas 28, no. 1: 611. doi: 10.1080/10714839.1994.11722971.
Wade, , Christine, J. 2008. “El Salvador: Contradictions of Neoliberalism and Building Sustainable Peace.” International Journal of Peace Studies 13, no. 2: 1532. At www.jstor.org/stable/41852975, accessed June 25, 2019.
Walsh, Katherine Cramer. 2012. “Putting Inequality in Its Place: Rural Consciousness and the Power of Perspective.” American Political Science Review 106, no. 3: 517–32. doi: 10.1017/S0003055412000305.
Walter, , Barbara, F. 2002. Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Wantchekon, Leonard. 1999. “Strategic Voting in Conditions of Political Instability: The 1994 Elections in El Salvador.” Comparative Political Studies 32, no. 7: 810–34. doi: 10.1177/0010414099032007003.
Wantchekon, Leonard, and Neeman, Zvika. 2002. “A Theory of Post-Civil War Democratization.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 14, no. 4: 439–64. doi: 10.1177/095162902774006822.
Watt, Nigel. 2008. Burundi: The Biography of a Small African Country. London, UK: Hurst and Company.
Weinstein, Jeremy M. 2006. Inside Rebellion: The Politics of Insurgent Violence. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.
Weyland, Kurt. 2000. “A Paradox of Success? Determinants of Political Support for President Fujimori.” International Studies Quarterly 44, no. 3: 481502. doi: 10.1111/0020-8833.00168.
Wilkinson, , Steven, I. 2004. Votes and Violence: Electoral Competition and Ethnic Riots in India. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Wolf, Sonja. 2009. “Subverting Democracy: Elite Rule and the Limits to Political Participation in Post-War El Salvador.” Journal of Latin American Studies 41, no. 3: 429–65. doi: 10.1017/S0022216X09990149.
Wood, Elisabeth Jean. 2000a. “Civil War and the Transformation of Elite Representation in El Salvador.” In Middlebrook, Kevin J., ed., Conservative Parties, the Right, and Democracy in Latin America. Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Wood, Elisabeth Jean. 2000b. Forging Democracy from Below: Insurgent Transitions in South Africa and El Salvador. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.
Wood, Elisabeth Jean. 2003. Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Wood, Elisabeth Jean. 2009. “Armed Groups and Sexual Violence: When Is Wartime Rape Rare?Politics & Society 37, no. 1: 131–61. doi: 10.1177/0032329208329755.
Wood, , Reed, M. 2014. “Opportunities to Kill or Incentives for Restraint? Rebel Capabilities, the Origins of Support, and Civilian Victimization in Civil War.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 31, no. 5: 461–80. doi: 10.1177/0738894213510122.
Yashar, , Deborah, J. 2012. “The Illicit, Violence, and Citizenship.” In Sznajder, Mario, Roniger, Luis, and Carlos, A. Forment, , eds., Shifting Frontiers of Citizenship: The Latin American Experience. Boston, Mass.: Brill Publishers.
Yashar, , Deborah, J. 2018. Homicidal Ecologies: Illicit Economies and Complicit States in Latin America. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.
Zamora, Rúben. 1998. El Salvador, Heridas que no Cierran: Los Partidos Políticos en la Post-guerra. San Salvador, El Salvador: FLACSO.
Zhukov, , Yuri, M., and Talibova, Roya. 2018. “Stalin’s Terror and the Long-Term Political Effects of Mass Repression.” Journal of Peace Research 55, no. 2: 267–83. doi: 10.1177/0022343317751261.

Keywords

Type Description Title
UNKNOWN
Supplementary materials

Daly Dataset
Dataset

 Unknown
PDF
Supplementary materials

Daly supplementary material
Daly supplementary material

 PDF (1.4 MB)
1.4 MB

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed