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Emergency Care Interventions for Victims of Explosive Ordnance Reduce Mortality: A Modeling Study

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 August 2025

Hannah B. H. Wild*
Affiliation:
Department of Surgery, University of Seattle, Washington, USA Explosive Weapons Trauma Care Collective, International Blast Injury Research Network, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
Benjamin Q. Huynh
Affiliation:
Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA Center for Humanitarian Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
Sebastian Kasack
Affiliation:
Mines Advisory Group, Manchester, United Kingdom
Alex Munyambabazi
Affiliation:
Amputee Self Help Network Uganda, Kampala, Uganda
Yves Sanou
Affiliation:
Captain Halassane Coulibaly Military Hospital, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
Yves Nacanabo
Affiliation:
Captain Halassane Coulibaly Military Hospital, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
Moumini Niaone
Affiliation:
Department of Public Health, University of Joseph Ki-Zerbo, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
Aparna Cheran
Affiliation:
Explosive Weapons Trauma Care Collective, International Blast Injury Research Network, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
Emilie Calvello Hynes
Affiliation:
World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
Nicolas Meda
Affiliation:
Department of Public Health, University of Joseph Ki-Zerbo, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
Adam Kushner
Affiliation:
Explosive Weapons Trauma Care Collective, International Blast Injury Research Network, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom Surgeons Overseas, New York, New York, USA
Barclay T. Stewart
Affiliation:
Department of Surgery, University of Seattle, Washington, USA Global Injury Control Section, Harborview Injury Prevention, Washington and Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
*
Correspondence: Hannah Wild, MD, 1959 NE Pacific St. Seattle, Washington 98195 USA; E-mail: hbwild@uw.edu
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Abstract

Background:

Modern conflicts are characterized by wide-spread use of conventional explosive ordnance (EO), improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and other air-launched explosives. In contrast to advances in military medicine and high-income civilian trauma systems since the United States-led wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the mortality rate among civilian EO casualties has not decreased in decades. Although humanitarian mine action (HMA) stakeholders have extensive presence and medical capabilities in EO-affected settings, coordination between HMA and health actors has not been leveraged systematically.

Methods:

Data from a prior systematic review of emergency care interventions feasible within the context of HMA activities and low-resource health care systems were used to model mortality reduction among EO victims. Interventions were categorized using the World Health Organization (WHO) Emergency Care System Framework sites of “scene,” “transport,” and “facility.” The cumulative impact of the interventions on EO-related mortality was estimated using pooled effect estimates and simulation modeling.

Results:

The meta-analysis included 16 reports from 13 countries, representing 127,505 injured persons. Pooled effect estimates across subcategories of emergency care interventions were 0.42 for layperson transportation (95%CI, 0.24-0.74), 0.79 for prehospital notification systems (95%CI, 0.51-1.19), 0.52 for prehospital trauma care training courses (95%CI, 0.46-0.59), 0.67 for facility-based trauma care training courses (95%CI, 0.48-0.92), and 0.66 for facility-based trauma team organization and activation protocols (95%CI, 0.45-0.97). A 68% reduction in mortality (95%UI, 57%-79%) was observed when implementing the full set of interventions in a region with no prior implemented interventions.

Conclusion:

Enhanced coordination between HMA and health actors to implement a structured set of emergency care interventions holds potential to significantly reduce preventable death among civilian EO casualties.

Information

Type
Original Research
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine
Figure 0

Figure 1. Selection of Included Studies.Note: Eligible reports from prior systematic review - Wild H, Leboa C, Markou-Pappas N, et al (2025).

Figure 1

Figure 2. Forest Plots for Meta-Analyses, Stratified by Intervention Category.Note: Circular dots indicate reported relative risk estimates from prior studies. Diamonds, placed in rows denoted as “Overall,” indicate our pooled estimates of relative risk per intervention category via meta-analysis. Uncertainty bars indicate 95% confidence intervals.

Figure 2

Table 1. Descriptive Characteristics of Included Reports, Ordered by Intervention Type

Figure 3

Table 2. Modeled Estimates of Mortality Reduction by Interaction Factor (IF) and Intervention Phase

Figure 4

Figure 3. Modeled Estimates of Mortality Reduction per Phase of Emergency Care Intervention.Note: Colored dots indicate median estimates at varying levels of interaction factors, a constant modeling the extent to which aggregated interventions exhibit overlapping effectiveness. Error bars indicate 95% uncertainty intervals, representing the 5th and 95th percentiles of values across all simulations. Grey lines indicate the range between minimum and maximum values across all simulations.

Figure 5

Figure 4. Relationship between Modeled Mortality Reduction and Interaction Factor, Stratified by Intervention Phases.Note: Interaction factor refers to a model parameter that determines the extent to which multiple interventions interact to reduce mortality in aggregate: a 0% interaction factor means that interventions do not overlap and only the most effective single intervention is applied; a 100% interaction factor means that all interventions fully overlap and can be applied sequentially with no diminishing marginal returns.

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