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Investigating the Determinants of High Case-Fatality Rate for Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Italy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 April 2020

Francesco Barone-Adesi*
Affiliation:
Department of Translational Medicine, University of Eastern Piedmont, Novara, Italy CRIMEDIM – Research Center in Emergency and Disaster Medicine, University of Eastern Piedmont, Novara, Italy
Luca Ragazzoni
Affiliation:
Department of Translational Medicine, University of Eastern Piedmont, Novara, Italy CRIMEDIM – Research Center in Emergency and Disaster Medicine, University of Eastern Piedmont, Novara, Italy
Maurizio Schmid
Affiliation:
Department of Engineering, Roma Tre University, Rome, Italy
*
Correspondence and reprint requests to Francesco Barone-Adesi, Department of Translational Medicine, University of Eastern Piedmont, Via Solaroli 17-28100 Novara, Hubei, Italy (e-mail: francesco.baroneadesi@uniupo.it).
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Abstract

Case-Fatality Rate (CFR) for COVID-19 in Italy is apparently much higher than in other countries. Using data from Italy and other countries we evaluated the role of different determinants of this phenomenon. We found that the Italian testing strategy could explain an important part of the observed difference in CFR. In particular, the majority of patients that are currently tested in Italy have severe clinical symptoms that usually require hospitalization and this translates to a large CFR. We are confident that, once modifications in the testing strategy leading to higher population coverage are consistently adopted in Italy, CFR will realign with the values reported worldwide.

Information

Type
Letter to the Editor
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright
© 2020 Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, Inc.
Figure 0

FIGURE 1 Relation Between the Proportion of Cases Admitted to the Hospital and Case-Fatality Rate in Different Italian Regions. (Only Regions With Mortality Rates for COVID-19 Above 1 per 10 000 Inhabitants are Reported.)