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The Risk of Cancer from CT Scans and Other Sources of Low-Dose Radiation: A Critical Appraisal of Methodologic Quality

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 February 2020

Carl H. Schultz*
Affiliation:
Professor Emeritus of Emergency Medicine and Public Health, Department of Emergency Medicine, UCI School of Medicine, Irvine, CaliforniaUSA
Romeo Fairley
Affiliation:
Assistant Clinical Professor of Emergency Medicine, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Texas Health School of Medicine, San Antonio, TexasUSA
Linda Suk-Ling Murphy
Affiliation:
Research Librarian for Health Sciences, University of California, Irvine, CaliforniaUSA
Mohan Doss
Affiliation:
Medical Physicist, Professor, Diagnostic Imaging, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, PennsylvaniaUSA
*
Carl H. Schultz, MD Department of Emergency Medicine Suite 640, Rt 128-01 UC Irvine Medical Center 333 The City Boulevard West OrangeCalifornia92868USA E-mail: schultzc@uci.edu
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Abstract

Introduction:

Concern exists that radiation exposure from computerized tomography (CT) will cause thousands of malignancies. Other experts share the same perspective regarding the risk from additional sources of low-dose ionizing radiation, such as the releases from Three Mile Island (1979; Pennsylvania USA) and Fukushima (2011; Okuma, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan) nuclear power plant disasters. If this premise is false, the fear of cancer leading patients and physicians to avoid CT scans and disaster responders to initiate forced evacuations is unfounded.

Study Objective:

This investigation provides a quantitative evaluation of the methodologic quality of studies to determine the evidentiary strength supporting or refuting a causal relationship between low-dose radiation and cancer. It will assess the number of higher quality studies that support or question the role of low-dose radiation in oncogenesis.

Methods:

This investigation is a systematic, methodologic review of articles published from 1975–2017 examining cancer risk from external low-dose x-ray and gamma radiation, defined as less than 200 millisievert (mSv). Following the PRISMA guidelines, the authors performed a search of the PubMed, Cochrane, Scopus, and Web of Science databases. Methodologies of selected articles were scored using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale (NOS) and a tool identifying 11 lower quality indicators. Manuscript methodologies were ranked as higher quality if they scored no lower than seven out of nine on the NOS and contained no more than two lower quality indicators. Investigators then characterized articles as supporting or not supporting a causal relationship between low-dose radiation and cancer.

Results:

Investigators identified 4,382 articles for initial review. A total of 62 articles met all inclusion/exclusion criteria and were evaluated in this study. Quantitative evaluation of the manuscripts’ methodologic strengths found 25 studies met higher quality criteria while 37 studies met lower quality criteria. Of the 25 studies with higher quality methods, 21 out of 25 did not support cancer induction by low-dose radiation (P = .0003).

Conclusions:

A clear preponderance of articles with higher quality methods found no increased risk of cancer from low-dose radiation. The evidence suggests that exposure to multiple CT scans and other sources of low-dose radiation with a cumulative dose up to 100 mSv (approximately 10 scans), and possibly as high as 200 mSv (approximately 20 scans), does not increase cancer risk.

Information

Type
Original Research
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s) 2020
Figure 0

Figure 1. Linear-No-Threshold (LNT) Model.

Note: Relationship between increased cancer risk and radiation dose as reported by the “Health Risks from Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation on: BEIR VII – Phase 2” report with 90% confidence bars. (Graph created by Stephen David Williams using the numbers reported in the BEIR report. Used with permission.)
Figure 1

Table 1. Article Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria

Figure 2

Figure 2. PRISMA Flow Diagram of Study Selection.

Note: Chart depicting the process of reviewing and selecting eligible articles from literature search for subsequent methodologic scoring. (From: DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000097.)
Figure 3

Table 2. Articles with Higher Quality Methodologies Characterized by Supporting or Not Supporting Cancer Induction by Low-Dose Radiation

Figure 4

Table 3. Articles with Lower Quality Methodologies Characterized by Supporting or Not Supporting Cancer Induction by Low-Dose Radiation

Figure 5

Figure 3. Cancer Risk for Males and Females as a Function of Increasing Radiation Exposure Up to 1 Gy.

Note: Panels A and B: Solid cancer dose-response functions for males and females (0–1 Gy). Fitted linear (black dashed line) and linear-quadratic (black solid curve) ERRs for all solid cancers using linear and linear-quadratic dose-response functions for males and females over the range of 0–1 Gy. Also shown are ERR estimates for 15 visible dose categories (points) and a nonparametric smoothed estimate (solid grey curve) with point-wise 95% CIs (dashed grey curves). The ERRs are given for subjects at attained age of 70 years after exposure at age 30 years. (Used with permission; copyright 2018 Radiation Research Society).
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