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Studying the seasonality of conceptions among five distinct population subgroups in mainland Greece: a story of similarities and variability

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 October 2022

K. N. Zafeiris*
Affiliation:
Laboratory of Physical Anthropology, Department of History and Ethnology, Democritus University of Thrace, O. Tsaldari1, Komotini 69132, Greece
C. Tsimbos
Affiliation:
Department of Statistics and Insurance Science, University of Piraeus, 80, M. Karaoli & A. Dimitriou St., Piraeus 18534, Greece
G. Verropoulou
Affiliation:
Department of Statistics and Insurance Science, University of Piraeus, 80, M. Karaoli & A. Dimitriou St., Piraeus 18534, Greece
K. Hatzisavva
Affiliation:
Laboratory of Physical Anthropology, Department of History and Ethnology, Democritus University of Thrace, O. Tsaldari1, Komotini 69132, Greece
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: kzafiris@he.duth.gr
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Abstract

The paper studies seasonality of conceptions among five distinct population subgroups of mainland Greece for the period 1951-2002. The populations explored include those residing in Metsovo, Dion, Organi, Kehros, as well as a “General” Sample consisting of persons located in various areas of continental Greece. The populations under investigation present diverse characteristics regarding religion, cultural background, socio-economic status etc. Records of births were derived from the Vital Registration System of the respective municipalities and communities of the populations under research were constructed. The date of child conception was estimated as the recorded date of birth minus 260 days.

The analysis focuses, among others, on the construction of seasonal indices, applying a variant ratio to moving averages method which reveal, in relative terms, the seasonality of the phenomenon. Subsequently, these ratios are considered as the dependent variable in regression models while months, expressed in terms of dummy variables, are introduced as predictors. Four main sub-periods are considered; 1951-64, 1965-80, 1981-92 and 1992-2002. The findings show that the extent of seasonality differs between periods as well as between the five population subgroups though the phenomenon becomes less prominent over time in all cases. There is a tendency of an increased number of conceptions among mountainous populations during summer, irrespective of religion or socio-economic status, possibly partly due to environmental factors (i.e. seasonal workload, domestic organisation of extended families, etc). Nevertheless, the mountainous populations differ regarding the intensity and duration of this phenomenon. By contrast, in Dion, a lowland Christian Orthodox population, conceptions increase after Easter and remain elevated until June.

Information

Type
Research Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press
Figure 0

Table 1. Major characteristics of the understudy populations

Figure 1

Table 2. Adjusted number of births per population and period of study

Figure 2

Figure 1. Observed monthly number of conceptions (OBS) and 12-month moving averages (M.A.): Total (all samples) 1951 - 2002.

Figure 3

Figure 2. Observed monthly number of conceptions (OBS) and 12-month moving averages (M.A.): General Sample 1951 - 2002.

Figure 4

Figure 3. Observed monthly number of conceptions (OBS) and 12-month moving averages (M.A.): Metsovo 1951 - 1998.

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Figure 4. Observed monthly number of conceptions (OBS) and 12-month moving averages (M.A.): Dion 1951 – 2002.

Figure 6

Figure 5. Observed monthly number of conceptions (OBS) and 12-month moving averages (M.A.): Organi 1951 - 1992.

Figure 7

Figure 6. Observed monthly number of conceptions (OBS) and 12-month moving averages (M.A.): Kehros 1951 - 1992.

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Figure 7. The seasonality of conceptions by population.

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Table 3. Coefficient of determination R2 of the regressions

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Figure 8. Coefficient of variation (ratio of standard deviation to the mean %).