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The yield of tuberculosis contact investigation in São Paulo, Brazil: a community-based cross-sectional study

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 January 2025

José Mário Nunes da Silva*
Affiliation:
School of Public Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
Fredi Alexander Diaz-Quijano
Affiliation:
Department of Epidemiology – Laboratório de Inferência Causal em Epidemiologia (LINCE-USP), School of Public Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
*
Corresponding author: José Mário Nunes da Silva; Emails: zemariu@hotmail.com; zemariu@usp.br
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Abstract

The strategy of tuberculosis (TB) contact investigation is essential for enhancing disease detection. We conducted a cross-sectional study to evaluate the yield of contact investigation for new TB cases, estimate the prevalence of TB, and identify characteristics of index cases associated with infection among contacts of new cases notified between 2010 and 2020 in São Paulo, Brazil. Out of 186466 index TB cases, 131055 (70.3%) underwent contact investigation. A total of 652286 contacts were screened, of which 451704 (69.2%) were examined. Of these, 12243 were diagnosed with active TB (yield of 1.9%), resulting in a number needed to screen of 53 and a number needed to test of 37 to identify one new TB case. The weighted prevalence for the total contacts screened was 2.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.7%–2.9%), suggesting underreporting of 6021 (95% CI: 5269–6673) cases. The likelihood of TB diagnosis was higher among contacts of cases identified through active case-finding, abnormal chest X-ray, pulmonary TB, or drug resistance, as well as among children, adults, women, individuals in socially vulnerable situations, and those with underlying clinical conditions. The study highlights significant TB underreporting among contacts, recommending strengthened contact investigation to promptly identify and treat new cases.

Information

Type
Original Paper
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BYCreative Common License - NCCreative Common License - ND
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided that no alterations are made and the original article is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained prior to any commercial use and/or adaptation of the article.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press
Figure 0

Figure 1. Comparisons among observed versus predicted probabilities among count models.Abbreviations: PRM – Poisson Regression Model. NBRM – Negative Binomial Regression Model. ZIP – Zero-inflated Poisson.

Figure 1

Table 1. Characteristics of tuberculosis index cases, yield of tuberculosis contact investigations, number needed to screen, and number needed to treat in São Paulo, Brazil, 2010–2020

Figure 2

Figure 2. Flowchart of screening and yield from tuberculosis contact investigation in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, 2010–2020.

Figure 3

Table 2. Prevalences and multilevel Poisson regression analysis adjusted for characteristics of tuberculosis index cases associated with the presence of tuberculosis diagnosis among their contacts. São Paulo, Brazil, 2010–2020

Figure 4

Figure 3. Caterpillar plot showing the effect of municipalities on tuberculosis prevalence among contacts and their respective 95% confidence intervals (n = 639). São Paulo, Brazil, 2010–2020.

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