Political instability and violence escalated in northeastern Syria in October 2019, following President Trump's decision to withdraw most U.S. troops from the country. Trump's decision left U.S.-backed Kurdish forces vulnerable to attacks by Turkey, intensifying an already dire humanitarian situation. Soon thereafter, Kurdish leaders negotiated an agreement with the Russian-backed Syrian government to fill the vacuum left by the U.S. withdrawal. By late October, the president of Turkey agreed to a ceasefire in response to diplomatic and economic pressure from the United States and to the arrival of Russian and Syrian troops into northeastern Syria. Shortly thereafter, U.S. forces carried out a raid in northwestern Syria that resulted in the death of the leader of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)—a raid that relied in part on intelligence gathered earlier by Kurdish allies.
Since 2016, American Special Operation troops have been on the ground fighting alongside the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-led militia, in an effort to defeat ISIL.Footnote 1 On December 19, 2018, Trump abruptly announced that the United States would withdraw entirely from Syria in light of the territorial defeat of ISIL, but he scaled back this decision after receiving bipartisan criticism from Congress and significant opposition from executive branch officials.Footnote 2 In the months following this announcement, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan repeatedly threatened that Turkey would launch military operations into Kurdish-controlled northeastern Syria.Footnote 3
In August of 2019, the United States and Turkey moved forward with the creation of a “safe zone” in northeastern Syria. The American embassy in Turkey explained that they had agreed on:
(a) the rapid implementation of initial measures to address Turkey's security concerns;
(b) to stand-up a joint operations center in Turkey as soon as possible in order to coordinate and manage the establishment of the safe zone together;
(c) that the safe zone shall become a peace corridor, and every effort shall be made so that displaced Syrians can return to their country.Footnote 4
In the following month, U.S. troops worked with the Syrian Democratic Forces to remove their trenches and other military barriers within the safe zone.Footnote 5
Notwithstanding this development, Erdoğan informed Trump on October 6 of Turkey's intention to invade northeastern Syria.Footnote 6 The White House press secretary summarized the phone call as follows:
Turkey will soon be moving forward with its long-planned operation into Northern Syria. The United States Armed Forces will not support or be involved in the operation, and United States forces, having defeated the [ISIL] territorial “Caliphate,” will no longer be in the immediate area . . . . Turkey will now be responsible for all [ISIL] fighters in the area captured over the past two years in the wake of the defeat of the territorial “Caliphate” by the United States.Footnote 7
The next morning, Trump tweeted his wish to “get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars . . . and bring our soldiers home” and stated that other actors in the region would “have to figure the situation out.”Footnote 8 Trump's tacit acceptance of Turkey's planned advance into northern Syria and his promise to “get out” of the area drew sharp criticism from former Trump administration officials, congressional leaders, and European allies.Footnote 9 Within a week, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution expressing opposition to Trump's decision by a vote of 354 to 60.Footnote 10 Kurdish leaders, including Syrian Democratic Forces commander General Mazloum Kobane Abdi, responded to their abandonment by U.S. allies with dismay.Footnote 11
On October 9, Turkey launched its offensive into northeastern Syria, conducting air strikes and sending ground troops across the border.Footnote 12 Turkey informed the UN Security Council by letter that it was invoking its right to self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter to “target terrorists and their hideouts, shelters, emplacements, weapons, vehicles and equipment” and that, consistent with previous counter-terrorism operations, “Turkey's response will be proportionate, measured and responsible.”Footnote 13
In an unconventional diplomatic letter dated the same day, Trump wrote to Erdoğan as follows:
Let's work out a good deal! You don't want to be responsible for slaughtering thousands of people, and I don't want to be responsible for destroying the Turkish economy—and I will . . . .
I have worked hard to solve some of your problems. Don't let the world down. You can make a great deal. General Mazloum is willing to negotiate with you, and he is willing to make concessions that they would never have made in the past . . . .
History will look upon you favorably if you get this done the right and humane way. It will look upon you forever as the devil if good things don't happen. Don't be a tough guy. Don't be a fool!Footnote 14
In response to the Turkish offensive, Trump signed an executive order on October 14 that authorized significant sanctions against individuals and entities within the Turkish government involved in this offensive.Footnote 15 The order also authorized secondary sanctions on foreign banks doing business with such individuals or entities.Footnote 16 That same day, the Department of the Treasury designated two ministries and three senior Turkish government officials as subject to these sanctions.Footnote 17 The Treasury secretary stated that “[t]he United States is holding the Turkish Government accountable for escalating violence by Turkish forces, endangering innocent civilians, and destabilizing the region.”Footnote 18 Separately, on October 15, the Department of Justice indicted Halkbank, a Turkish state-owned bank, on fraud and money laundering charges relating to the evasion of U.S. sanctions on Iran.Footnote 19
Also in response to the Turkish offensive, Kurdish forces reached a deal with the Russian-backed Syrian government on October 13 that would allow government forces to return to northeastern Syria to combat Turkish military advances.Footnote 20 Filling the vacuum left by the U.S. withdrawal, Syrian government forces immediately moved in, along with Russian troops.Footnote 21
On October 17, Vice President Pence led a delegation to Ankara, Turkey, in an attempt to negotiate a ceasefire with Erdoğan. After several hours of diplomatic discussions, Turkey agreed to a five-day ceasefire.Footnote 22 The United States and Turkey issued a joint statement following the meeting that outlined a thirteen-point agreement.Footnote 23 This agreement included the following:
1. The US and Turkey reaffirm their relationship as fellow members of NATO. The US understands Turkey's legitimate security concerns on Turkey's southern border.
…
4. The two countries reiterate their pledge to uphold human life, human rights, and the protection of religious and ethnic communities.
…
7. The Turkish side expressed its commitment to ensure safety and well-being of residents of all population centers in the safe zone controlled by the Turkish Forces (safe zone) and reiterated that maximum care will be exercised in order not to cause harm to civilians and civilian infrastructure.
…
10. The safe zone will be primarily enforced by the Turkish Armed Forces and the two sides will increase their cooperation in all dimensions of its implementation.
11. The Turkish side will pause Operation Peace Spring in order to allow the withdrawal of [certain Syrian Kurdish forces] from the safe zone within 120 hours. Operation Peace Spring will be halted upon completion of this withdrawal.
12. Once Operation Peace Spring is paused, the US agrees not to pursue further imposition of sanctions under the Executive Order of October 14, 2019 . . . . Once Operation Peace Spring is halted as per paragraph 11 the current sanctions under the aforementioned Executive Order shall be lifted.Footnote 24
Five days later, on October 22, Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin reached an agreement that their forces would share supervision over a strip of territory more than twenty miles wide running hundreds of miles along Syria's northeastern border.Footnote 25 The next day, Trump announced a “permanent” ceasefire by Turkey:
Early this morning, the government of Turkey informed my administration that they would be stopping combat and their offensive in Syria, and making the ceasefire permanent. And it will indeed be permanent. However you would also define the word “permanent” in that part of the world as somewhat questionable, we all understand that. But I do believe it will be permanent.Footnote 26
Trump accordingly instructed the secretary of the Treasury “to lift all sanctions imposed on October 14 in response to Turkey's original offensive moves against the Kurds in Syria's northeast border region.”Footnote 27 Trump stated that this ceasefire “validates our course of action with Turkey that only a couple of weeks ago were scorned . . . .”Footnote 28 He also made clear that “a small number of U.S. troops will remain in the area where they have the oil. And we're going to be protecting it, and we'll be deciding what we're going to do with it in the future.”Footnote 29
Several days later, Trump announced one further, significant development stemming from U.S. military operations in Syria. This was the death of ISIL leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,Footnote 30 who died during a raid conducted by U.S. forces in northwestern Syria. Prior to this operation, Kurdish allies had tracked al-Baghdadi and provided information critical to the launch of the attack.Footnote 31 Although a spokesperson for the Kremlin declined to reveal whether the United States had informed Russia of the operation in advance,Footnote 32 Trump observed that “[w]e had to fly over certain Russia areas, Russia-held areas” and “Russia treated us great.”Footnote 33
On November 13, Erdoğan met with Trump at the White House.Footnote 34 At a joint press conference with Erdoğan, Trump stated:
Today, the ceasefire continues to hold. And I want to thank the President for his partnership and cooperation as we work to build a more stable, and peaceful, and prosperous Middle East. We've assured each other that Turkey will continue to uphold what it's supposed to uphold. I'm a big fan of the President, I have to tell you that. And I know that the ceasefire, while complicated, is moving forward and moving forward at a very rapid clip. There's a lot of people that want to see that work after so many decades and so many centuries, you might say.Footnote 35
In his remarks, Erdoğan noted his plans to repatriate one million Syrian refugees into the safe zone.Footnote 36 Erdoğan had met several weeks earlier with UN Secretary-General António Guterres to discuss this issue, and Guterres “stressed the basic principles relating to the voluntary, safe and dignified” return of refugees.Footnote 37 The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees is in the process of reviewing Erdoğan's plan,Footnote 38 which would involve settling Arab Syrians from other regions within Syria into the largely Kurdish northeast.Footnote 39 In early November, a senior UN humanitarian advisor indicated that “localized heavy fighting continues” in northeastern Syria, where “recent displacements are compounding an already dire situation in which some 710,000 people were already displaced and approximately 1.8 million remain in need of humanitarian assistance.”Footnote 40
