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FROM CHRONOLOGICAL NETWORKS TO BAYESIAN MODELS: CHRONOLOG AS A FRONT-END TO OXCAL

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 February 2022

E Levy*
Affiliation:
Tel Aviv University, Archaeology and Ancient Near Eastern Cultures, Tel Aviv 69978, Israel
E Piasetzky
Affiliation:
Tel Aviv University, Archaeology and Ancient Near Eastern Cultures, Tel Aviv 69978, Israel
A Fantalkin
Affiliation:
Tel Aviv University, Archaeology and Ancient Near Eastern Cultures, Tel Aviv 69978, Israel
I Finkelstein
Affiliation:
Tel Aviv University, Archaeology and Ancient Near Eastern Cultures, Tel Aviv 69978, Israel School of Archaeology and Maritime Cultures, University of Haifa, Mount Carmel, Haifa 3498838, Israel
*
*Corresponding author. Email: eythan.levy@gmail.com
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Abstract

We present a new method for creating an OxCal Bayesian model that bypasses the complex task of writing OxCal code. Our methodology employs the recent ChronoLog software as a graphical front-end for generating OxCal scripts. This approach enables archaeologists to create complex Bayesian models—including termini post and ante quem, duration bounds and synchronisms—with the help of a user-friendly interface. The target audience can be divided into beginners, who might struggle to create chronological models using OxCal directly, and experienced OxCal users, who should find that ChronoLog saves time when coding complex models. Three case-studies from recent publications are presented.

Information

Type
Research Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press for the Arizona Board of Regents on behalf of the University of Arizona
Figure 0

Figure 1 Graphical syntax of a ChronoLog time-period. The time-period has an earliest start of 1200, a latest end of 1300 and lasts 30 to 60 years. These data are shown on the left side of the time-period (“input bounds”). The right side of the time-period displays the “computed bounds,” i.e., the tightest possible bounds computed by ChronoLog.

Figure 1

Figure 2 The ChronoLog graphical syntax. The model shows two kings and two strata. The strata have a duration of at least 20 years, King Albert started reigning after 1200 CE and reigned at most 10 years, and King Baldwin died before 1300 and reigned at least 35 years. In addition, two synchronisms connect a king to a stratum. Input bounds are displayed on the left side of the time-period, and tightened bounds on its right side.

Figure 2

Figure 3 Same model as previously (Figure 2), but with a 25 years maximum duration for Baldwin (instead of minimum 35 years). The model is inconsistent because the resulting 35 years maximum duration of the dynasty (10+25 years) is too short to contain the 40 years minimum duration of the two strata (20+20 years). The inconsistency is automatically detected and by ChronoLog.

Figure 3

Figure 4 ChronoLog’s “OxCal export” window.

Figure 4

Figure 5 A ChronoLog time-period (with date and duration bounds), and the automatically generated OxCal script (using input bounds, rather than computed bounds, and omitting radiocarbon dates). Note: a ChronoLog earliest date of X is modeled in OxCal as After(“”, X.0), with X.0 meaning the start of year X. A ChronoLog latest date of X is modeled in OxCal as Before(“”, X.999), to represent the end of year X.

Figure 5

Figure 6 Converting a ChronoLog sequence to OxCal code (using input bounds and omitting radiocarbon dates).

Figure 6

Figure 7 Example of converting a contemporaneity synchronism to OxCal. Radiocarbon dates are omitted for the sake of conciseness. The OxCal constraints corresponding to the ChronoLog synchronism are shown in bold. The +1 and –1 have been added to emulate ChronoLog’s ≥ and ≤ operators using OxCal’s “>” and “<” operators.

Figure 7

Figure 8 ChronoLog model for the second half of the Egyptian 18th dynasty. All reigns feature a duration estimate adapted from Quiles et al. (2013). The Sennefer tomb is dated to between the start of Tutankhamen and the start of Horemheb. The model includes radiocarbon determinations (from Bronk Ramsey et al. 2010) in all reigns, except Neferneferuaten, Ay and Horemheb. Further radiocarbon determinations are included in the tomb of Sennefer (from Quiles et al. 2013). See Appendix C for full details on the model.

Figure 8

Figure 9 Egyptian 18th dynasty: sketch of the OxCal script generated by ChronoLog. The sketch omits radiocarbon determinations and several reigns, for the sake of conciseness (see Appendix C for the full script).

Figure 9

Table 1 Results of the OxCal script generated by ChronoLog, compared to those of Bronk Ramsey et al. (2010).

Figure 10

Figure 10 Bayesian model of Fantalkin et al. (2015: 30, their Fig. 2) for Aegean chronology from the late Late Helladic IIIB to the Middle Geometric II.

Figure 11

Figure 11 ChronoLog model for Aegean chronology from the late Late Helladic IIIB to the Early Proto-Geometric (adapted from Fantalkin et al. 2015). All the synchronisms are of type “A is included in B”.

Figure 12

Figure 12 Sketch of the OxCal script automatically generated by ChronoLog for the Aegean chronology case-study (see Appendix C for the full script).

Figure 13

Table 2 Results of the OxCal script generated by ChronoLog, compared to those of Fantalkin et al. (2015: 31, their Table 2).

Figure 14

Figure 13 Bayesian model for the Iron I/Iron II transition in the southern Levant (Bronk Ramsey 2009a: 351, their Figure 7, adapted from Mazar and Bronk Ramsey 2008, their Figure 2).

Figure 15

Figure 14 ChronoLog representation of the Mazar and Bronk Ramsey model shown in Figure 13 (partial view, hiding the strata included in each cultural phase, see Appendix C for the full ChronoLog model).

Figure 16

Figure 15 OxCal script generated by ChronoLog on the basis of the model of Figure 14 (omitting 14C dates, see Appendix C for full model).

Figure 17

Figure 16 Alternative model, imposing the additional constraint: “Late Iron I starts after the start of Iron I”.

Figure 18

Table 3 Results of the OxCal script generated by ChronoLog, compared to those of Mazar and Bronk Ramsey (2008: 173, their Figure 1, Model C3).

Figure 19

Figure 17 The contemporaneity synchronism and special cases thereof. In the images, time flows from above to below.

Figure 20

Figure 18 Additional ChronoLog synchronisms. In the images, time flows from above to below.

Figure 21

Table 4 Detailed ChronoLog to OxCal conversion rules (sequences and bounds).

Figure 22

Table 5 Detailed ChronoLog to OxCal conversion rules (synchronisms).

Figure 23

Table 6 Detailed ChronoLog to OxCal conversion rules (radiocarbon dates).

Figure 24

Table 7 Radiocarbon determinations included in the first case-study (Egyptian 18th dynasty). The radiocarbon determinations for the kings are from Bronk Ramsey et al. 2010 (excluding outlier samples no. 18520, 19550, 19004, 19263, VERA-4686, VERA-4686B, 20482, and 18954). Those of the tomb of Sennefer are from Quiles et al. 2013 (“Bouquet 1” only). Dates with an asterisk are combined.

Figure 25

Table 8 Radiocarbon dates for the Aegean chronology from the late Late Helladic IIIB to the Early Proto-Geometric (adapted from Fantalkin et al. 2015: 28, their Table 1). Dates with an asterisk are combined.

Figure 26

Table 9 Radiocarbon dates for the Iron I/II transition in the southern levant (adapted from Mazar and Bronk Ramsey 2008, model C3, excluding additional samples HM3 and QS6). In cases of discrepancies (samples MG5, MG9, Y1, Y3, GrN-26121, GrN-18825) between Mazar and Bronk Ramsey’s OxCal script (p. A23) and their table (Table 2, p. 164), we have followed the script. Regarding the Tel Miqne samples (originating in Stratum V but initially reported as coming from Stratum IV), see Mazar and Bronk Ramsey 2008, note 3. Dates with an asterisk are combined.