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What Makes Party Systems Different? A Principal Component Analysis of 17 Advanced Democracies 1970–2013

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2021

Zsuzsanna B. Magyar*
Affiliation:
University of Lucerne, Lucerne, Switzerland. Email: zmagyar@ucla.edu
*
Corresponding author Zsuzsanna B. Magyar
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Abstract

Party systems, that is, the number and the size of all the parties within a country, can vary greatly across countries. I conduct a principal component analysis on a party seat share dataset of 17 advanced democracies from 1970 to 2013 to reduce the dimensionality of the data. I find that the most important dimensions that differentiate party systems are: “the size of the biggest two parties” and the level of “competition between the two biggest parties.” I use the results to compare the changes in electoral and legislative party systems. I also juxtapose the results to previous party system typologies and party system size measures. I find that typologies sort countries into categories based on variation along both dimensions. On the other hand, most of the current political science literature use measures (e.g., the effective number of parties) that are correlated with the first dimension. I suggest that instead of these, indices that measure the opposition structure and competition could be used to explore problems pertaining to the competitiveness of the party systems.

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Type
Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Society for Political Methodology
Figure 0

Figure 1 Loadings, PCA. Notes: The plot shows the loadings, the weight of parties in determining the principal components in the PCA.

Figure 1

Table 1 Eigenvalues and the explained variance, PCA seat shares.

Figure 2

Figure 2 Scree plot, PCA seat shares. Notes: The plot shows the scree plot of the PCA on seat shares. On the x-axis are the numbers of the eigenvalues, and on the y-axis are the unexplained variance.

Figure 3

Figure 3 Individual countries in the PCA two-dimensional plane. Notes: The plots show how the countries’ party systems change along the PC1 (size) and PC2 (competition) dimensions. The shading of the arrows shows the time progression, with darker colors signifying times closer to the present day.

Figure 4

Figure 4 Electoral versus legislative party system changes 1970–2013. The party system changes throughout the years are plotted in the two-dimensional plane determined by a PCA on both seat and vote shares. In black, I plot the outer polygon surrounding all the positions of a given country based on seat share PCA, whereas in dark grey, based on vote share PCA.

Figure 5

Figure 5 Comparison of Rokkan’s (1970) typology to PCA results. Notes: Figure 5a shows the first two dimensions of the PCA and the classification of Rokkan. Figure 5b shows the demarcation lines between groups. Top-left: Category (1). Top-right: Category (3)—Top(3b) and Bottom(3a). Bottom-right: Category (2).

Figure 6

Figure 6 Individual countries in the two-dimensional plane. Notes: The figures show how the countries’ party systems change along the PC1 (size) and PC2 (competition) dimensions through time. The lines represent the demarcation lines of different categories that Rokkan (1970) established. Top-left: 1. “British–German” party systems. Top-right: 3. Even multiparty systems—3a (bottom): Scandinavian “split working class” systems; 3b (top): Segmented pluralism. Bottom-right: “Scandinavian” party systems.

Figure 7

Table 2 Correlation table, traditional measures of party system size and opposition structure and principal components.

Figure 8

Figure 7 Measures on the PC dimensions. Notes: The plot shows how party system size measures relate to each other and the two first dimensions of the PCA. PC1: Dimension 1, Sizes of the two biggest parties. PC2: Dimension 2, Competition between the biggest and the second biggest parties. Abbreviations: HH, Herfindahl–Hirschman Index; Fract, Fractionalization Index; Entropy, entropies; ENP, effective number of parties; P.in Gov, number of parties in the government; Shap.ENP, effective number of parties (Shapley); Big Party, size of the biggest party over the size of the legislature; ENOP, effective number of opposition parties; OPOP, the difference between the first and the second biggest opposition parties over the size of the legislature; BOPP, size of the biggest opposition party over the size of the legislature; Competition, size difference between the biggest and the second biggest parties over the size of the legislature.

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Magyar Dataset

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