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Estimates of mpox effective reproduction number in Spain, April–August 2022

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 June 2023

David García-García
Affiliation:
National Centre of Epidemiology, Carlos III Health Institute, Madrid, Spain CIBER in Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
Diana Gómez-Barroso*
Affiliation:
National Centre of Epidemiology, Carlos III Health Institute, Madrid, Spain CIBER in Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
Victoria Hernando
Affiliation:
National Centre of Epidemiology, Carlos III Health Institute, Madrid, Spain CIBER in Infectious Diseases (CIBERINFEC), Madrid, Spain
Marta Ruiz-Algueró
Affiliation:
National Centre of Epidemiology, Carlos III Health Institute, Madrid, Spain CIBER in Infectious Diseases (CIBERINFEC), Madrid, Spain
Lorena Simón
Affiliation:
National Centre of Epidemiology, Carlos III Health Institute, Madrid, Spain
María Sastre
Affiliation:
National Centre of Epidemiology, Carlos III Health Institute, Madrid, Spain CIBER in Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
María José Sierra
Affiliation:
CIBER in Infectious Diseases (CIBERINFEC), Madrid, Spain Coordinating Centre for Health Alerts and Emergencies, Directorate General of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Madrid, Spain
Pere Godoy
Affiliation:
CIBER in Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain Lleida Biomedical Research Institute (IRBLleida), University of Lleida, Lleida, Spain
Asunción Diaz
Affiliation:
National Centre of Epidemiology, Carlos III Health Institute, Madrid, Spain CIBER in Infectious Diseases (CIBERINFEC), Madrid, Spain
*
Corresponding author: Diana Gómez-Barroso; Email: dgomez@isciii.es
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Abstract

We analysed the transmission of the human mpox virus in Spain by estimating the effective reproduction number of the disease from official surveillance data. Our computations show that this decreased steadily after an initial burst phase, dropping below 1 on July 12, and thus the outbreak was expected to reduce in the following weeks. Differences in trends were found across geographical regions of the country and across MSM and heterosexual populations.

Information

Type
Original Paper
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BYCreative Common License - NCCreative Common License - ND
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided that no alterations are made and the original article is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained prior to any commercial use and/or adaptation of the article.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press
Figure 0

Figure 1. Epidemic curve of MPX in Spain, Madrid, and Barcelona, 25 April–19 August 2022. The date of new cases was obtained as the date of the onset of symptoms, offset by the incubation period.

Figure 1

Table 1. Model parametrisation

Figure 2

Figure 2. MPX effective reproduction number (Rt) in Spain, 25 April 2022–10 August 2022. Shaded area represents 95% confidence interval.

Figure 3

Figure 3. MPX effective reproduction number (Rt) in Madrid and Barcelona, 25 April 2022–10 August 2022. Shaded areas represent 95% confidence intervals.

Figure 4

Figure 4. MPX effective reproduction number by mobility-based community in Spain, 25 April–10 August 2022. Shaded areas represent 95% confidence intervals.

Figure 5

Figure 5. MPX effective reproduction number across the MSM and heterosexual populations in Spain, 25 April–10 August 2022. Shaded areas represent 95% confidence intervals.

Supplementary material: File

García-García et al. supplementary material

Table S1 and Figures S1-S3

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