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Comparison of two methods for the estimation of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness of the autumnal booster within the VEBIS-EHR network in 2022/23

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 March 2025

Susana Monge*
Affiliation:
Department of Communicable Diseases, National Centre of Epidemiology, Institute of Health Carlos III, Madrid, Spain CIBER on Infectious Diseases, Madrid, Spain
James Humphreys
Affiliation:
Department of Epidemiology, Epiconcept, Paris, France
Nathalie Nicolay
Affiliation:
Vaccine Preventable Diseases and Immunisation, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Solna, Sweden
Toon Braeye
Affiliation:
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Sciensano, Elsene, Belgium
Izaak Van Evercooren
Affiliation:
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Sciensano, Elsene, Belgium
Christian Holm Hansen
Affiliation:
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark
Hanne-Dorthe Emborg
Affiliation:
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark
Massimo Fabiani
Affiliation:
Infectious Diseases Department, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy
Chiara Sacco
Affiliation:
Infectious Diseases Department, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy European Programme on Intervention Epidemiology Training (EPIET), European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden
Jesús Castilla
Affiliation:
Instituto de Salud Pública de Navarra – IdiSNA, Pamplona, Spain CIBER on Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain
Iván Martínez-Baz
Affiliation:
Instituto de Salud Pública de Navarra – IdiSNA, Pamplona, Spain CIBER on Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain
Brechje de Gier
Affiliation:
Center for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Susan Hahné
Affiliation:
Center for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Hinta Meijerink
Affiliation:
Department of Infection Control and Vaccines, Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH), Oslo, Norway
Anja Bråthen Kristoffersen
Affiliation:
Department of Method Development and Analytics, Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH), Oslo, Norway
Ausenda Machado
Affiliation:
Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge, Lisboa Portugal
Patricia Soares
Affiliation:
Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge, Lisboa Portugal
Mario Fontán-Vela
Affiliation:
Department of Communicable Diseases, National Centre of Epidemiology, Institute of Health Carlos III, Madrid, Spain Public Health and Epidemiology Research Group, School of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, Spain
Anthony Nardone
Affiliation:
Department of Epidemiology, Epiconcept, Paris, France
Esther Kissling
Affiliation:
Department of Epidemiology, Epiconcept, Paris, France
Baltazar Nunes
Affiliation:
Department of Epidemiology, Epiconcept, Paris, France
*
Corresponding author: Susana Monge; Email: smonge@isciii.es
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Abstract

Within an infrastructure to monitor vaccine effectiveness (VE) against hospitalization due to COVID-19 and COVID-19 related deaths from November 2022 to July 2023 in seven countries in real-world conditions (VEBIS network), we compared two approaches: (a) estimating VE of the first, second or third COVID-19 booster doses administered during the autumn of 2022, and (b) estimating VE of the autumn vaccination dose regardless of the number of prior doses (autumnal booster approach). Retrospective cohorts were constructed using Electronic Health Records at each participating site. Cox regressions with time-changing vaccination status were fit and site-specific estimates were combined using random-effects meta-analysis. VE estimates with both approaches were mostly similar, particularly shortly after the start of the vaccination campaign, and showed a similar timing of VE waning. However, autumnal booster estimates were more precise and showed a clearer trend, particularly compared to third booster estimates, as calendar time increased after the vaccination campaign and during periods of lower SARS-CoV-2 activity. Moreover, the decrease in protection by increasing calendar time was more clear and precise than when comparing protection by number of doses. Therefore, estimating VE under an autumnal booster framework emerges as a preferred method for future monitoring of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns.

Information

Type
Original Paper
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press
Figure 0

Table 1. Vaccine effectiveness (95% confidence intervals) in those aged ≥80 years against hospitalization due to COVID-19 according to two approaches. Protocol v1.0: vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the first, second, and third booster dose, compared to complete primary vaccination without booster administered ≥168 days ago. Protocol v2.0: autumnal (bivalent) vaccine effectiveness among individuals eligible for an annual vaccine. For each 8-week overlapping study period between November 2022 and July 2023

Figure 1

Table 2. Vaccine effectiveness (95% confidence intervals) in those aged 65 to 79 years against hospitalization due to COVID-19 according to two approaches. Protocol v1.0: vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the first, second, and third booster dose, compared to complete primary vaccination without booster administered ≥168 days ago. Protocol v2.0: autumnal (bivalent) vaccine effectiveness among individuals eligible for an annual vaccine. For each 8-week overlapping study period between November 2022 and July 2023

Figure 2

Figure 1. Vaccine effectiveness (95% confidence intervals) against hospitalization due to COVID-19 according to two approaches. Protocol v1.0: vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the first, second, and third booster dose, compared to complete primary vaccination without booster administered ≥168 days ago. Protocol v2.0: autumnal (bivalent) vaccine effectiveness among individuals eligible for the autumnal vaccine dose. For each 8-week overlapping study period between November 2022 and July 2023.

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