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Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index as a predictor for mechanical ventilation and 30-day mortality across COVID-19 variants

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 July 2023

Priyanka Parajuli
Affiliation:
Department of Internal Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA
Roy Sabo
Affiliation:
C. Kenneth and Dianne Wright Center for Clinical and Translational Research, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA Department of Biostatistics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA
Rasha Alsaadawi
Affiliation:
C. Kenneth and Dianne Wright Center for Clinical and Translational Research, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA Department of Biostatistics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA
Amanda Robinson
Affiliation:
C. Kenneth and Dianne Wright Center for Clinical and Translational Research, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA
Evan French
Affiliation:
C. Kenneth and Dianne Wright Center for Clinical and Translational Research, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA
Richard K. Sterling*
Affiliation:
Department of Internal Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA C. Kenneth and Dianne Wright Center for Clinical and Translational Research, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA Division of Infectious Disease, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA
*
Corresponding author: R. K. Sterling, MD; Email: richard.sterling@vcuhealth.org
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Abstract

Background:

The Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, a simple index that includes age, liver enzymes, and platelet count has been studied as a tool to identify patients at a risk of requiring mechanical ventilation due to its high negative predictive value. It is unknown if FIB-4 remains useful to predict the severity of respiratory disease requiring mechanical ventilation amongst new Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) variants and whether a relationship also exists between FIB-4 and 30-day mortality. The main objective was to determine if FIB-4 can predict mechanical ventilation requirements and 30-day mortality from COVID-19 across variants including Alpha, Delta, and Omicron.

Methods:

This was a population-based, retrospective cohort analysis of 232,364 hospitalized patients in the National COVID-19 Cohort Collaborative between the age of 18–90 who tested positive for COVID-19 between April 27, 2020 and June 25, 2022. The primary outcome was association between FIB-4 and need for mechanical ventilation. Secondary measures included the association of FIB-4 with 30-day mortality.

Results:

A FIB-4 > 2.67 had 1.8 times higher odds of requiring mechanical ventilation across all variants of COVID-19 (OR 1.81; 95% CI: [1.76, 1.86]). The area under the ROC curve showed high diagnostic accuracy with values ranging between 0.79 (Omicron wave) and 0.97 (delta wave). Increased FIB-4 was associated with 30-day mortality across the variates.

Conclusion:

The FIB-4 was consistently associated with both increased utilization of mechanical ventilation and 30-day mortality among COVID-19 patients across all waves in both adjusted and unadjusted models. This provides a simple tool for risk-stratification for front-line health care professionals.

Information

Type
Research Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of The Association for Clinical and Translational Science
Figure 0

Table 1. Odds ratios of mechanical ventilation using simple vs multiple logistic regression models for Alpha, delta, omicron-initial, and omicron-subsequent waves

Figure 1

Figure 1. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) across all COVID-19 variants.

Figure 2

Table 2. Predictability of mechanical ventilation by FIB-4

Figure 3

Figure 2. Odds ratios using simple vs. multiple logistic regression modeling for mechanical ventilation (a) and 30-day mortality (b) for a one unit change in continuous FIB-4 by COVID-19 variant.

Figure 4

Table 3. Odds ratios for 30-day mortality using simple vs. multiple logistic regression models for the initial, Alpha, delta, omicron-initial, and omicron-subsequent waves

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