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Pooled influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates for Australia, 2012–2014

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 April 2016

S. G. SULLIVAN*
Affiliation:
WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Department of Epidemiology, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA; Discipline of General Practice, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia; School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia;
K. S. CARVILLE
Affiliation:
Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia;
M. CHILVER
Affiliation:
Discipline of General Practice, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia;
J. E. FIELDING
Affiliation:
School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; National Centre for Epidemiology and Public Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia;
K. A. GRANT
Affiliation:
Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia;
H. KELLY
Affiliation:
School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; National Centre for Epidemiology and Public Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia;
A. LEVY
Affiliation:
PathWest Laboratory Medicine, Perth, Western Australia, Australia; School of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia;
N. P. STOCKS
Affiliation:
Discipline of General Practice, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia;
S. S. TEMPONE
Affiliation:
PathWest Laboratory Medicine, Perth, Western Australia, Australia;
A. K. REGAN
Affiliation:
School of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia; Communicable Diseases Control Directorate, Western Australian Department of Health, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
*
*Author for correspondence: Dr S. G. Sullivan, WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, 792 Elizabeth Street, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia. (Email: sgsullivan@ucla.edu)
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Summary

Data were pooled from three Australian sentinel general practice influenza surveillance networks to estimate Australia-wide influenza vaccine coverage and effectiveness against community presentations for laboratory-confirmed influenza for the 2012, 2013 and 2014 seasons. Patients presenting with influenza-like illness at participating GP practices were swabbed and tested for influenza. The vaccination odds of patients testing positive were compared with patients testing negative to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) by logistic regression, adjusting for age group, week of presentation and network. Pooling of data across Australia increased the sample size for estimation from a minimum of 684 to 3,683 in 2012, from 314 to 2,042 in 2013 and from 497 to 3,074 in 2014. Overall VE was 38% [95% confidence interval (CI) 24–49] in 2012, 60% (95% CI 45–70) in 2013 and 44% (95% CI 31–55) in 2014. For A(H1N1)pdm09 VE was 54% (95% CI–28 to 83) in 2012, 59% (95% CI 33–74) in 2013 and 55% (95% CI 39–67) in 2014. For A(H3N2), VE was 30% (95% CI 14–44) in 2012, 67% (95% CI 39–82) in 2013 and 26% (95% CI 1–45) in 2014. For influenza B, VE was stable across years at 56% (95% CI 37–70) in 2012, 57% (95% CI 30–73) in 2013 and 54% (95% CI 21–73) in 2014. Overall VE against influenza was low in 2012 and 2014 when A(H3N2) was the dominant strain and the vaccine was poorly matched. In contrast, overall VE was higher in 2013 when A(H1N1)pdm09 dominated and the vaccine was a better match. Pooling data can increase the sample available and enable more precise subtype- and age group-specific estimates, but limitations remain.

Information

Type
Original Papers
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2016 
Figure 0

Table 1. Patients’ characteristics by vaccination status, 2012–2014

Figure 1

Fig. 1. Presentation of cases by influenza status.

Figure 2

Table 2. Patients’ characteristics by influenza status, 2012–2014

Figure 3

Fig. 2. Forest plots showing results of the initial exploration of heterogeneity by meta-analysis of unpooled data against all influenza types. Data for each year suggested moderate heterogeneity of around 35–54% according to I2. I2 represents variation in vaccine effectiveness attributable to heterogeneity. This statistic measures overlap between the confidence intervals and point estimates among studies. For example, the heterogeneity in 2012 has resulted from failure of the confidence interval of ASPREN to overlap the point estimate of SPNWA (and vice versa). Random-effects model from the DerSimonian & Laird method [25]. Fixed-effects estimate from the Mantel–Haenszel method. Cochran's P value not shown as it is underpowered. ASPREN, Australian Sentinel Practices Research Network; VicSPIN, Victorian Sentinel Practice Influenza Network; SPNWA, Sentinel Practitioners Network of Western Australia.

Figure 4

Fig. 3. Vaccine effectiveness and 95% confidence interval [VE (95% CI)] estimates by age group within types/subtypes.

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