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Accepted manuscript

Target Trial Emulation Shows That Supported Causal Effects of Religious Attendance on Well-Being Are Selective

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 March 2026

Joseph A. Bulbulia*
Affiliation:
Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
Don E. Davis
Affiliation:
Georgia State University, Matheny Center for the Study of Stress, Trauma, and Resilience
Crystal Park
Affiliation:
University of Connecticut, Department of Psychological Sciences
Kenneth G. Rice
Affiliation:
Georgia State University, Matheny Center for the Study of Stress, Trauma, and Resilience
Geoffrey Troughton
Affiliation:
School of Social and Cultural Studies, Victoria University of Wellington
Daryl R. Van Tongeren
Affiliation:
Hope College
Chris G. Sibley
Affiliation:
School of Psychology, University of Auckland
*
Corresponding author: Joseph A. Bulbulia; Email: joseph.bulbulia@vuw.ac.nz

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Abstract

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Religious service attendance is associated with better well-being, but observational associations do not establish causation. We analyse six annual waves of the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study (N = 46, 377) to estimate causal effects of monthly attendance on 24 well-being indicators using target trial emulation. Deterministic 'make everyone attend' contrasts fail positivity: only 2-3% of non-attenders initiate attendance per year. We therefore estimate supported stochastic interventions (δ= 5) among baseline non-attenders (N = 38,477) using a sequentially doubly robust estimator with cross-validated machine learning. Effects are selective: small gains appear in meaning and purpose, forgiveness, and sexual satisfaction, with little movement in somatic health, psychological distress, social belonging, or perceived social support. A comparison exposure (+1 hour per week socialising with others) does not reproduce the pattern. We interpret the selective pattern through a prominent cooperative account of religion: gains concentrate in coordination-relevant domains rather than in direct health pathways.

Information

Type
Research Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press