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Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on psychotropic medication uptake: time-series analysis of a population-wide cohort

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 August 2022

Aideen Maguire*
Affiliation:
Centre for Public, Queen's University, Northern Ireland
Lisa Kent
Affiliation:
Administrative Data Research Centre Northern Ireland (ADRC-NI), Queen's University, Northern Ireland
Siobhan O'Neill
Affiliation:
Ulster University/Northern Ireland Mental Health Champion, Northern Ireland
Denise O'Hagan
Affiliation:
Public Health Agency (PHA) Northern Ireland
Dermot O'Reilly
Affiliation:
Administrative Data Research Centre Northern Ireland (ADRC-NI), Queen's University, Northern Ireland
*
Correspondence: Aideen Maguire. Email: a.maguire@qub.ac.uk
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Abstract

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns were predicted to have a major impact on mental health, however current studies have produced contradictory findings with limited longitudinal data.

Aims

Nine years of linked, individual-level administrative data were used to examine changes in psychotropic medication uptake before and during the pandemic.

Method

Medication data from a population-wide prescribing database were linked to demographic and socioeconomic indicators from healthcare registration records (n = 1 801 860). Monthly prescription uptake was split (pre-restrictions: January 2012 to February 2020 and during restrictions: March to October 2020). Auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were trained in R taking into consideration trends and seasonal effects. Forecast (‘expected’) monthly values were compared with ‘actual’ values, stratified by demographic factors.

Results

Over the study period 38.5% of the study population were in receipt of ≥1 psychotropic medication. Uptake of these medications have been following a strong upward trend since January 2012. In March 2020 uptake of all medications increased beyond expected values, returning to expected trends from May 2020 for antidepressants, anxiolytics and antipsychotics. In the 8 months during restrictions uptake of hypnotic medication was 12% higher than expected among those <18 years, and anxiolytic medication higher than expected in those >65 years.

Conclusions

Results suggest an initial ‘stockpiling’ of medications in March 2020 before trends mostly returned to expected levels. The anticipated tsunami of mental ill health is not yet manifest in psychotropic medication uptake. There are indications of increased anxiety and sleep difficulties in some subgroups, although these conditions may resolve as we emerge from the pandemic without need for psychiatric intervention.

Information

Type
Paper
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Royal College of Psychiatrists
Figure 0

Table 1 Sociodemographic characteristics and number (%) of individuals within each subgroup in receipt of medications at any time January 2012 to October 2020

Figure 1

Fig. 1 Number of individuals in Northern Ireland in receipt of ‘any psychotropic’ medication each month from January 2012 to October 2020 by demographic factors (dashed vertical line depicts onset of pandemic March 2020/shaded areas 2017–2018 depict years affected by prescription scanning problem). (a) Full study cohort, (b) gender; (c) age in years; (d) household size; (e) deprivation; (f) rurality. F, female; M, male; Q, quartile.

Figure 2

Fig. 2 Auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) illustrating forecast versus actual values of uptake of all psychotropic medications during the first 8 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Northern Ireland (March 2020 to October 2020). (a) all psychotropic medications, (b) antidepressants; (c) anxiolytics; (d) antipsychotics; (e) hypnotics; (f) anti-epileptics (comparator). Dark grey band denotes the 80% confidence interval and the light grey band the 95% confidence interval.

Figure 3

Fig. 3 Auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) illustrating forecast versus actual values of uptake of all antidepressant medications during the first 8 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Northern Ireland (March 2020 to October 2020). (a and b) gender; (c–f) age in years; (g and h) household size; (i–m) deprivation; (n to p) rurality. Dark grey band denotes the 80% confidence interval and the light grey band the 95% confidence interval. Q, quartile.

Figure 4

Fig. 4 Auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) illustrating forecast versus actual values of uptake of all hypnotic medications during the first 8 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Northern Ireland (March 2020 to October 2020). (a and b) gender; (c–f) age in years; (g and h) household size; (i–m) deprivation; (n to p) rurality. Dark grey band denotes the 80% confidence interval and the light grey band the 95% confidence interval. Q, quartile.

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