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Populism and emotions: a comparative study using Machine Learning

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 May 2023

Manuela Caiani*
Affiliation:
Faculty of Political and Social Sciences, Scuola Normale Superiore, Palazzo Strozzi, Piazza degli Strozzi, Florence 50123, Italy
Jessica Di Cocco
Affiliation:
Department of Political and Social Sciences, European University Institute, Badia Fiesolana, Via della Badia dei Roccettini 9, Fiesole 50014 (Florence), Italy Department of Political Science, Luiss Guido Carli, Viale Romania 32, Roma 00197, Italy
*
*Corresponding author. Email: manuela.Caiani@sns.it

Abstract

This study aims to unpack the mobilization of emotions in the political discourse of populist and non-populist parties and above all, across ‘varieties of populism’ (right wing vs. left wing or hybrid). Is there an empirical connection between emotions and populism? Are all types of populisms alike with regards to the emotional appeals within their political discourse? Focusing on Italy as a crucial case for populist communication and using a novel methodological approach based on supervised machine learning, it systematically investigates the intensity and trends of specific emotions in political discourses (institutional and informal, i.e. leaders’ speeches) of all Italian political parties over the last 20 years, for a corpus of more than 13,000 sentences analysed. The findings confirm that (i) populists tend to use more (and a broader repertoire of) emotional appeals than non-populist parties; however (ii) overall, there is an increase in the use of these appeals in the Italian political party discourse over time, especially in terms of negative emotions; and, most importantly, (iii) different types of emotions are mobilized by different types of populisms. Right wing populism mainly uses negative emotions while left wing or hybrid populism employs positive emotional appeals. The communication arena (party manifestoes vs. speeches) nevertheless does matter in the degree and types of emotions mobilized by political actors. This study identifies important implications for research on emotional appeals in politics, populist communication and political campaigning, and populist contagion from an emotion-based perspective.

Information

Type
Research Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Società Italiana di Scienza Politica
Figure 0

Figure 1. The overall emotional level (i.e. presence of emotions) in the populist vs. not -populist party political discourse in Italy (2000–2020). (a) aggregated. (b) by type of communication arena (electoral manifestoes vs. speeches).Note: The scores showed in the figures represent the percentages of ‘emotional sentences’ per year, and have to be considered as a proxy of a political actors’ emotional level. For example, a score of 0.122 (i.e. the emotional score of populists in 2016–20 fig.1a) means that 12.2% of the codified sentences of the Italian populist political discourse in 2016–2020 contained emotions (at least one among the five broad emotions analysed in this study).

Figure 1

Figure 2. Different types of emotions in the populist vs. not -populist party political discourse in Italy (2000–2020).Note: In the figures, the label hate refers to ‘hate against outgroup’; indignation’ to ‘indignation against neoliberalism’. The scores showed in the figures represent the percentages of ‘emotional sentences’ per year, and have to be considered as a proxy of a political actors’ emotional level related to the specific emotion.

Figure 2

Figure 3. Different types of emotions in the political discourse of varieties of populism (lef wing, right wing, hybrid, i.e. ‘other’), Italy (2008–2020).Note: In the figures, the label hate refers to ‘hate against outgroup’; indignation’ to ‘indignation against neoliberalism’. The Italian party ‘Potere al Popolo’ has been classified as Left wing populism (see also Di Cocco and Monechi, 2022); the party Lega as Right wing populism; and, finally, the 5SM party as hybrid (i.e. ‘other’) (see also Mosca and Tronconi, 2019). The scores showed in the figures represent the percentages of emotional sentences per year, per emotion, per type of populism, and have to be considered as a proxy of a political actors’ emotional level.

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Caiani and Di Cocco Dataset

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