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Do Citizens Stereotype Muslims as an Illiberal Bogeyman? Evidence from a Double-List Experiment

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 February 2025

Stuart J. Turnbull-Dugarte*
Affiliation:
Department of Politics & International Relations, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
Alberto López Ortega
Affiliation:
Center for European Studies, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
Michael Hunklinger
Affiliation:
Political Science Department, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
*
Corresponding author: Stuart J. Turnbull-Dugarte; Email: s.turnbull-dugarte@soton.ac.uk
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Abstract

Illiberal actors in Western democracies increasingly exploit the superficial defence of liberal values like gender equality and LGBTQ+ rights to demonize ethnic out-groups, portraying Muslims as inherently opposed to Western values. This paper investigates whether this stereotype reflects widespread public beliefs and asks: is the stereotypical view of the Muslim community as an illiberal ‘bogeyman’ endorsed by citizens? Leveraging an original double-list experiment design that minimizes sensitivity bias, we identify population-level estimates of this stereotype in Britain, Germany, the Netherlands, and the USA. Our cross-national results reveal a pervasive and ubiquitous stereotype of Muslims as a threat to LGBTQ+ communities across Western democracies. The implications of these findings are concerning as they signal that societal tolerance of ethnic out-groups across liberal democracies remains tainted by prejudicial stereotypes. The results also underscore the alarming electoral potential of far-right parties that exploit homonationalist and femonationalist stereotype-based threat perceptions to their political advantage.

Information

Type
Letter
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press
Figure 0

Table 1. Double-list experimental design

Figure 1

Figure 1. Treatment effect.

Figure 2

Figure 2. Subgroup analysis: LGBT+ vs. non-LGBT+ respondents.

Figure 3

Figure 3. Assessing treatment heterogeneity via causal random forest.

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