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The association between cannabis abuse and subsequent schizophrenia: a Swedish national co-relative control study

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 July 2014

G. N. Giordano
Affiliation:
Center for Primary Health Care Research, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden
H. Ohlsson
Affiliation:
Center for Primary Health Care Research, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden
K. Sundquist
Affiliation:
Center for Primary Health Care Research, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden Stanford Prevention Research Center, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
J. Sundquist
Affiliation:
Center for Primary Health Care Research, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden Stanford Prevention Research Center, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
K. S. Kendler*
Affiliation:
Virginia Institute for Psychiatric and Behavioral Genetics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA Department of Psychiatry, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond VA, USA Department of Human and Molecular Genetics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA
*
* Address for correspondence: K. S. Kendler, M.D., Virginia Institute for Psychiatric and Behavioral Genetics of VCU, Box 980126, Richmond, VA 23298-0126, USA. (Email: kendler@vcu.edu)
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Abstract

Background

Although cannabis abuse (CA) is known to be associated with schizophrenia, the causal nature of this association is unclear, with prodromal effects complicating its interpretation.

Method

From Swedish national registry databases, we used a co-relative case–control design with full-sibling, half-sibling and first-cousin comparisons, alongside a general Swedish population sample. Using ICD codes, 5456 individuals with an initial diagnosis of schizophrenia (2000–2010) were matched with five schizophrenia-free controls. We further identified first-cousin, half-sibling and full-sibling pairs discordant for CA and statistically extrapolated results for discordant monozygotic (MZ) twins.

Results

Within the general Swedish population, CA was strongly associated with later schizophrenia [odds ratio (OR) 10.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) 8.99–12.11]. This association was substantially attenuated both by increasing temporal delays between CA exposure and schizophrenia diagnosis and by controlling for increasing degrees of familial confounding. Extrapolated discordant MZ pairs suggested that fully controlling for confounding familial factors reduced the association between CA and later schizophrenia to more modest levels (ORs of approximately 3.3 and 1.6 with 3- and 7-year temporal delays respectively). Opiate, sedative, cocaine/stimulant and hallucinogen abuse were also strongly associated with subsequent schizophrenia in the general population. After controlling for familial confounding, only cocaine/stimulant exposure remained associated.

Conclusions

CA has an appreciable causal impact on future risk for schizophrenia. However, population-based estimates of cannabis–schizophrenia co-morbidity substantially overestimate their causal association. Predictions of the cases of schizophrenia that might be prevented by reduced cannabis consumption based on population associations are therefore likely to be considerably overestimated.

Information

Type
Original Articles
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BYCreative Common License - NCCreative Common License - SA
The online version of this article is published within an Open Access environment subject to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike licence . The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use.
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2014
Figure 0

Table 1. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) describing the risk of hospital diagnosis of schizophrenia after prior registration for cannabis abuse (CA) in (i) a general population sample and (ii) a co-relative sample, allowing the time between exposure and disease to vary by 1, 3, 5 and 7 years

Figure 1

Table 2. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) describing the risk of hospital diagnosis of schizophrenia after prior registration for cannabis abuse (CA) in (i) a general population sample and (ii) a co-relative sample

Figure 2

Table 3. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) describing the risk of hospital diagnosis of schizophrenia after prior registration for different types of drug abuse in (i) a general population sample and (ii) a co-relative sample (cannabis cases excluded)

Supplementary material: File

Giordano Supplementary Material

Appendix

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