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Long COVID incidence across SARS-CoV-2 lineages and identification of conserved spike targets for multivalent vaccines

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 December 2025

Grace Jaeyoon Kim
Affiliation:
Department of Genetics, Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center, New Orleans, LA, USA School of Medicine, Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center, New Orleans, LA, USA
Md Ashad Alam
Affiliation:
Ochsner Center for Outcomes Research, Ochsner Medical Center, New Orleans, LA, USA
Judy S. Crabtree
Affiliation:
Department of Genetics, Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center, New Orleans, LA, USA
Rebecca Rose
Affiliation:
Department of Research and Development, BioInfoExperts LLC, Thibodaux, LA, USA
Susanna L. Lamers
Affiliation:
Department of Research and Development, BioInfoExperts LLC, Thibodaux, LA, USA
San Chu
Affiliation:
Department of Population and Public Health, LSU Pennington Biomedical Research Center, Baton Rouge, LA, USA
Ronald Horswell
Affiliation:
Department of Population and Public Health, LSU Pennington Biomedical Research Center, Baton Rouge, LA, USA
Daniel Fort
Affiliation:
Ochsner Center for Outcomes Research, Ochsner Medical Center, New Orleans, LA, USA
Lucio Miele*
Affiliation:
Department of Genetics, Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center, New Orleans, LA, USA LSU-LCMC Health Cancer Center, New Orleans, LA, USA
*
Corresponding author: L. Miele; Email: lmiele@lsuhsc.edu
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Abstract

Background:

Long COVID remains poorly characterized at the genomic level. The primary aim of this study was to examine the relationship between viral sequences and the incidence of Long COVID at a tertiary care center in Louisiana between April 2020 and December 2022. A secondary aim was analysis of the Spike protein to identify conserved regions for multivalent vaccine targets.

Method:

To estimate Long COVID incidence across variants, we linked 4789 SARS-CoV-2 sequences to 3090 de-identified patient electronic health record information. The base population was defined as any patient with an International Classification of Diseases-10-Clinical Modification COVID-19 diagnosis code (U07.1) based definitions of Long COVID presentation developed by the N3C consortium.

Results:

1,554 patients (1,536 Long COVID-negative) met Long COVID definitions, with 56.3% being female, 36.1% self-reported as African American, 5.5% self-reported as Hispanic/Latino, and 54.5% had received at least one vaccine dose 14 days prior to SARS-CoV-2 collection. Long COVID-positive patients were older (mean age 43.1 years) than negative patients (35.9 years; p = 0.0054) and were more likely to be female (p = 0.0001). Among unvaccinated patients, those with Long COVID were significantly younger than their vaccinated counterparts (p < 0.00001). Long COVID incidence varied by PANGO lineage, ranging between 14% in AY.13 to 67.8% in B.1.1.7. Analysis of spike protein diversity revealed eight conserved amino acid regions (Shannon entropy < 0.43), representing potential targets for vaccine design.

Conclusion:

Long COVID rates across thousands of annotated SARS-CoV-2 sequences revealed lineage-specific risk and conserved epitopes for future interventions.

Information

Type
Research Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Association for Clinical and Translational Science
Figure 0

Table 1. Patient demographics, a total of 3090 patients (1554 long COVID positive, 1536 long COVID negative) were included in this study. Long COVID patients were more likely to be older in age (43 years vs 36 years, p = 0.0054) and of female sex (52.9% women [920/1739]; 40.41% men [634/1351]; p value = 0.0011)

Figure 1

Figure 1. Incidence of long COVID by PANGO variant. Proportion of viral variants (labeled as [variant, npatients infected with variant =, proportion developing long COVID], ex. B.1 [236, 66.1%]) resulting in long COVID plotted against inverse log Benjamini–Hochberg adjusted p-values (≥1.3 indicates significance). SARS-CoV-2 variants are listed in chronological order of appearance from earliest (ancestral B.1) to most recent (Omicron BQ.1), with a sample size less than n = 5 were excluded from this analysis. This figure was generated using the Seaborn python data visualization library.

Figure 2

Figure 2. Adjusted odds ratios of long COVID by variant group plotted by sample collection dates. Odds ratios are adjusted, via stratification, for age, gender, and race and reflect values indicated in Table S3. Statistical significance is indicated by the blue coloring.

Figure 3

Figure 3. Conserved and accessible regions of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein proposed for multivalent vaccine development. (A) Highly conserved and accessible regions (N = 8) displayed by spike protein domains. *Indicates accessibility in both open and closed confirmations. Figure 3A was adapted from Jackson et al. 2022 [34] (B) shannon entropy conservation score of spike amino acid positions (N = 1,273). Values range from 0 to 1, with higher values indicating greater probability of amino acid conservation. All positions had a value < 0.43, reflecting the high mutability of the spike protein. Conservation scores can be found in table format within the supplemental data files. Figure 2A-B was generated using biorender. (C to D) Ribbon structure of conserved regions, highlighted in red (N = 8), viewed in closed (PDB: 6VXX) (C) and open (PDB: 7ZH5) (D) protein confirmations using PyMOL.

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