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Stirring the populist tide: campaign rhetoric and electoral choices in the 2022 Korean presidential election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 January 2026

Sunkyoung Park
Affiliation:
Division of Global Korean Studies, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
Yongwoo Jeung*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science and International Studies, Incheon National University, Incheon, Republic of Korea.
*
Corresponding author: Yongwoo Jeung; Email: jeung@inu.ac.kr
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Abstract

How and to what extent can populism emerge in a new democracy where strong populism politics has not previously existed? Contrary to earlier findings that the effects of populism on voting have been minimal in South Korea, the 2022 presidential campaigns were marked by populism rhetoric and mobilisations, raising questions about the sudden rise of populism politics. This paper argues that even in a new but consolidated democracy that has been relatively free from the threat of populism, populism can influence elections when politicians mobilise economic grievance and political dissatisfaction, and when voters with latent populist attitudes resonate with such appeals. To support this argument, this paper analyses all official campaign speeches and assesses their level of populist rhetoric with holistic grading methods. Quantitative analysis of pre- and post-election surveys shows that, while populist attitudes did not significantly influence vote choice before the campaign, voters with stronger populist attitudes were more likely to vote for the candidate who delivered more populist speeches after the campaign began. These findings demonstrate that populist voting can be activated even in political contexts without a strong historical presence of populism.

Information

Type
Research Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press
Figure 0

Figure 1. Hawkins’ populism scores for Yoon and Lee.

Figure 1

Table 1. Items measuring populist attitudes

Figure 2

Figure 2. Mean values of populist attitudes (IRT) by vote intention.

Figure 3

Table 2. Populist attitudes and votes in the 2022 presidential election

Figure 4

Table 3. Moderating effects of economic and political conditions (reduced form)

Figure 5

Figure 3. Marginal effects of housing market loss on vote choice.

Figure 6

Figure 4. Marginal effects of dissatisfaction with democracy on vote choice.

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Park and Jeung supplementary material

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