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RATE OF CONVERGENCE OF COMPUTABLE PREDICTIONS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 October 2025

KENSHI MIYABE*
Affiliation:
DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS MEIJI UNIVERSITY JAPAN
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Abstract

We consider the problem of predicting the next bit in an infinite binary sequence sampled from the Cantor space with an unknown computable measure. We propose a new theoretical framework to investigate the properties of good computable predictions, focusing on such predictions’ convergence rate.

Since no computable prediction can be the best, we first define a better prediction as one that dominates the other measure. We then prove that this is equivalent to the condition that the sum of the KL divergence errors of its predictions is smaller than that of the other prediction for more computable measures. We call that such a computable prediction is more general than the other.

We further show that the sum of any sufficiently general prediction errors is a finite left-c.e. Martin-Löf random real. This means the errors converge to zero more slowly than any computable function.

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Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of The Association for Symbolic Logic