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INFERENCE ON EXTREME QUANTILES OF UNOBSERVED INDIVIDUAL HETEROGENEITY

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 January 2026

Vladislav Morozov*
Affiliation:
Universität Bonn
*
Address correspondence to Vladislav Morozov, Universität Bonn, Germany, e-mail: morozov@uni-bonn.de.
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Abstract

We develop a methodology for conducting inference on extreme quantiles of unobserved individual heterogeneity (e.g., heterogeneous coefficients and treatment effects) in panel data and meta-analysis settings. Inference is challenging in such settings: only noisy estimates of heterogeneity are available, and central limit approximations perform poorly in the tails. We derive a necessary and sufficient condition under which noisy estimates are informative about extreme quantiles, along with sufficient rate and moment conditions. Under these conditions, we establish an extreme value theorem and an intermediate order theorem for noisy estimates. These results yield simple optimization-free confidence intervals (CIs) for extreme quantiles. Simulations show that our CIs have favorable coverage and that the rate conditions matter for the validity of inference. We illustrate the method with an application to firm productivity differences across areas of varying population density. By analyzing the left tails of the productivity distributions, we find no evidence of stronger firm selection in more densely populated areas.

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Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press
Figure 0

Figure 1 Coverage and length for 95% nominal confidence interval. $F=t_3$. $u_{it}\sim G_\beta , \beta =8$ (8 finite moments).Note: (1) nonlinear x and y-axes; (2) intermediate CIs cannot be constructed for some quantiles (Remark 10).

Figure 1

Figure 2 Coverage and length for 95% nominal confidence interval. $F=t_3$. Noiseless data.Note: (1) nonlinear x and y-axes; (2) intermediate CIs cannot be constructed for some quantiles (Remark 10).

Figure 2

Figure 3 95% confidence intervals for extreme quantiles of total factor productivity. Split by below and above median experience density (BME and AME, respectively); split by sectors. Shaded area: zone where the rule of thumb of Section 4 suggests extreme-order approximations. For areas and sectors with $N\leq 1,000$, all the depicted quantiles fall into this zone. [Data source: BELab, De España (2024), CBI data 1995–2023, own computations.]

Figure 3

Figure 4 95% confidence intervals for extreme quantiles of total factor productivity. Split by sector. Top panel: AMD and BMD data standardized to have the same mean and variance. Bottom panel: no standardization. CIs based on Theorem 4.3 with critical values estimated as in Remark 7. [Data source: BELab, De España (2024), CBI data 1995–2023, own computations.]

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