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Modelling spatial patterns of near-surface air temperature over a decade of melt seasons on McCall Glacier, Alaska

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 March 2020

Patrick Troxler
Affiliation:
Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Álvaro Ayala
Affiliation:
Centre for Advanced Studies in Arid Zones (CEAZA), La Serena, Chile
Thomas E. Shaw*
Affiliation:
Advanced Mining Technology Center, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Matt Nolan
Affiliation:
Fairbanks Fodar, Fairbanks, AK, USA
Ben W. Brock
Affiliation:
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK
Francesca Pellicciotti
Affiliation:
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
*
Author for correspondence: Thomas E. Shaw, E-mail: thomas.shaw@amtc.uchile.cl
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Abstract

We examine the spatial patterns of near-surface air temperature (Ta) over a melting glacier using a multi-annual dataset from McCall Glacier, Alaska. The dataset consists of a 10-year (2005–2014) meteorological record along the glacier centreline up to an upper glacier cirque, spanning an elevation difference of 900 m. We test the validity of on-glacier linear lapse rates, and a model that calculates Ta based on the influence of katabatic winds and other heat sources along the glacier flow line. During the coldest hours of each summer (10% of time), average lapse rates across the entire glacier range from −4.7 to −6.7°C km−1, with a strong relationship between Ta and elevation (R2 > 0.7). During warm conditions, Ta shows more complex, non-linear patterns that are better explained by the flow line-dependent model, reducing errors by up to 0.5°C compared with linear lapse rates, although more uncertainty might be associated with these observations due to occasionally poor sensor ventilation. We conclude that Ta spatial distribution can vary significantly from year to year, and from one glacier section to another. Importantly, extrapolations using linear lapse rates from the ablation zone might lead to large underestimations of Ta on the upper glacier areas.

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Papers
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2020
Figure 0

Fig. 1. Conceptual scheme of the spatial patterns of near-surface air temperature over a melting glacier under warm conditions prescribed by the three approaches discussed in this paper: a linear lapse rate derived from the data collected on the ablation zone, a typical solution of the GB model equations (Greuell and Böhm, 1998), and the modified GB (ModGB) model (Ayala and others, 2015).

Figure 1

Fig. 2. (a) Map of McCall Glacier, showing the distance along the flow line (m) and the elevation contour lines (m a.s.l). Meteorological stations correspond to single temperature loggers (T-loggers) and automatic weather stations (AWS). (b) The location of McCall Glacier in Alaska. (c) Elevation of the stations versus their distance along the flow line with its origin in the upper cirque of the glacier, where T6 is located. A line is fitted to the relation between the distance along the flow line and elevation of the meteorological observations. Flow line distance was calculated using Matlab's TOPOtoolbox (Schwanghart and Kuhn, 2010), and it is only shown for the upper area where T6 is located.

Figure 2

Table 1. Main characteristics of meteorological stations used in this study

Figure 3

Table 2. Location of meteorological stations

Figure 4

Fig. 3. Average off-glacier meteorological variables recorded at M1 in the melt seasons (June to August) of years 2005–2014. (a) Air temperature, (b) wind speed and (c) incoming shortwave radiation. Colours indicate different off-glacier temperature conditions (T > P90 percentile group: red, T = P45–55: green, T < P10: blue).

Figure 5

Fig. 4. Wind roses for on-glacier AWS T4 during relatively warm (P90) and cold (P10) off-glacier temperature conditions. The two selected years represent cold (2006) and warm (2007) off-glacier temperatures (recorded at M1 AWS). DC is the directional constancy of each wind rose.

Figure 6

Fig. 5. Near-surface air temperature (Ta) at different meteorological stations along the flow line of McCall Glacier during cold (blue, P10), average (green, P45-55) and warm (red, P90) off-glacier conditions. Dots represent mean air temperature at a specific station. Standard deviations are shown by shaded colour bounds that are linearly interpolated between the stations.

Figure 7

Table 3. Off-glacier temperature (Toff, measured at M1) ranges for the different percentiles in Figure 5

Figure 8

Fig. 6. Average temperature linear lapse rates with confidence intervals (a,c,e), and their corresponding coefficients of determination R2 between air temperature and elevation (b,d,f) for the period 2005–2014. The lapse rates are calculated using all T-loggers (from T1 to T6, black colours) and only those on the lower area of the glacier (from T1 to T5, orange colours). Dots represent the average and the bars show $95\%$ confidence intervals.

Figure 9

Fig. 7. Comparison of daily albedo measured at T4 (blue line), temporal distribution of the hours included in the P90 interval (orange bars), and daily average determination coefficient of hourly linear lapse rates (green line) between June and August of each year in the period 2005–2014. X and Y -axes are identical for each subplot.

Figure 10

Fig. 8. Fit of linear lapse rates and the ModGB model for the warmest conditions of each year (P90). The lower limit of air temperatures in P90 for each year is shown, together with the RMSE of linear lapse rates and the ModGB model. Black dots show the mean measured temperature at each station with error bars showing the measurement uncertainty (supplementary material) for T6 (light blue) and other stations (orange).

Figure 11

Fig. 9. Fitted ModGB model parameters (H, K and K L−1) as a function of T0 temperatures during warm conditions (P90) for the 2005–2014 period, excluding the three years when ModGB shows a performance similar to that of the linear lapse rates. The dashed lines represent the median values (H=7.6 m, K = 4.2°C and K/L = 1.2°C km−1).

Figure 12

Table 4. Fitted ModGB model parameters and T0 temperatures for McCall Glacier during P90 conditions of several years (Figure 4)

Figure 13

Fig. 10. Comparison of the inter-annual transferability of linear lapse rates and the ModGB model as a function of the off-glacier air temperature. Left axis shows the average RMSE of each model (in bars) and the right panel shows the ModGB model parameters (in lines).

Figure 14

Fig. 11. ModGB model fit and linear lapse rates for the observations in the melt season 2011. Linear lapse rates are fitted to (i) only lower data (T1–T4), (ii) only upper data (T5–T6) and (iii) all data with starting point T4.