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Development and evaluation of a predictive algorithm and telehealth intervention to reduce suicidal behavior among university students

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 September 2023

Penelope A. Hasking*
Affiliation:
School of Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Australia Faculty of Health Sciences, enAble Institute, Curtin University, Perth, Australia
Kealagh Robinson
Affiliation:
School of Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Australia Faculty of Health Sciences, enAble Institute, Curtin University, Perth, Australia
Peter McEvoy
Affiliation:
School of Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Australia Faculty of Health Sciences, enAble Institute, Curtin University, Perth, Australia Centre for Clinical Interventions, Perth, Australia
Glenn Melvin
Affiliation:
Centre for Social and Early Emotional Development, School of Psychology, Faculty of Health, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia
Ronny Bruffaerts
Affiliation:
University Psychiatric Center, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
Mark E. Boyes
Affiliation:
School of Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Australia Faculty of Health Sciences, enAble Institute, Curtin University, Perth, Australia
Randy P. Auerbach
Affiliation:
Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University, New York, USA Division of Clinical Developmental Neuroscience, Sackler Institute, New York, USA
Delia Hendrie
Affiliation:
School of Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Australia
Matthew K. Nock
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA
David A. Preece
Affiliation:
School of Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Australia Faculty of Health Sciences, enAble Institute, Curtin University, Perth, Australia
Clare Rees
Affiliation:
School of Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Australia
Ronald C. Kessler
Affiliation:
Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA
*
Corresponding author: Penelope A. Hasking; Email: Penelope.Hasking@curtin.edu.au
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Abstract

Background

Suicidal behaviors are prevalent among college students; however, students remain reluctant to seek support. We developed a predictive algorithm to identify students at risk of suicidal behavior and used telehealth to reduce subsequent risk.

Methods

Data come from several waves of a prospective cohort study (2016–2022) of college students (n = 5454). All first-year students were invited to participate as volunteers. (Response rates range: 16.00–19.93%). A stepped-care approach was implemented: (i) all students received a comprehensive list of services; (ii) those reporting past 12-month suicidal ideation were directed to a safety planning application; (iii) those identified as high risk of suicidal behavior by the algorithm or reporting 12-month suicide attempt were contacted via telephone within 24-h of survey completion. Intervention focused on support/safety-planning, and referral to services for this high-risk group.

Results

5454 students ranging in age from 17–36 (s.d. = 5.346) participated; 65% female. The algorithm identified 77% of students reporting subsequent suicidal behavior in the top 15% of predicted probabilities (Sensitivity = 26.26 [95% CI 17.93–36.07]; Specificity = 97.46 [95% CI 96.21–98.38], PPV = 53.06 [95% CI 40.16–65.56]; AUC range: 0.895 [95% CIs 0.872–0.917] to 0.966 [95% CIs 0.939–0.994]). High-risk students in the Intervention Cohort showed a 41.7% reduction in probability of suicidal behavior at 12-month follow-up compared to high-risk students in the Control Cohort.

Conclusions

Predictive risk algorithms embedded into universal screening, coupled with telehealth intervention, offer significant potential as a suicide prevention approach for students.

Information

Type
Original Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press
Figure 0

Table 1. Pooled estimates of bivariate and multivariate associations between predictor variables and subsequent suicide plan or attempt

Figure 1

Table 2. Rates of suicide ideation, plan, attempt, at baseline and 12-month follow-up, separated by intervention cohort and algorithm outcome

Figure 2

Table 3. Hierarchical logistic regression predicting future suicidal behavior (i.e. recent suicidal behavior at 12-month follow-up)

Figure 3

Figure 1. Intervention condition moderates the relationship between algorithm outcome and probability of recent suicidal behaviors at 12-month follow-up.

Figure 4

Table 4. Rates of treatment access at baseline and 12-month follow-up periods as well as mental health resource use at 4-week follow-up, separated by intervention cohort and algorithm outcome

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