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Opportunity cost neglect: a meta-analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 January 2025

Allegra Maguire
Affiliation:
JEDILAB, Division of Economics, Department of Management and Engineering, Linköping University, 581 83 Linköping, Sweden
Emil Persson
Affiliation:
JEDILAB, Division of Economics, Department of Management and Engineering, Linköping University, 581 83 Linköping, Sweden
Gustav Tinghög*
Affiliation:
JEDILAB, Division of Economics, Department of Management and Engineering, Linköping University, 581 83 Linköping, Sweden Department of Health, Medical and Caring Sciences, The National Center for Priority Setting in Health Care, Linköping University, 581 83 Linköping, Sweden
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Abstract

In a seminal paper, Frederick et al. (J Consum Res 36:553–561, 2009) showed that people’s willingness to purchase a consumer good declined dramatically when opportunity costs were made more salient (Cohen’s d = 0.45–0.85). This finding suggests that people normally do not pay sufficient attention to opportunity costs and as a result make poorer and less efficient decisions, both in private and public domains. To critically assess the strength of opportunity cost neglect, we carried out a systematic review and a meta-analysis including published and non-published experimental work. In total, 39 experimental studies were included in the meta-analysis (N = 14,005). The analysis shows a robust significant effect (Cohen’s d = 0.22; p < 0.001) of opportunity cost neglect across different domains, albeit the effect is considerably smaller than what was originally estimated by Frederick et al. (2009). Our findings highlight the importance of meta-analyses and replications of initial findings.

Information

Type
Original Paper
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2023
Figure 0

Fig. 1 Original experimental paradigm. Scenario from Study 1A in Frederick et al. (2009)

Figure 1

Fig. 2 Prisma flow diagram. Procedure for literature search and study inclusion with number of studies at each stage

Figure 2

Fig. 3 Forest plot and summary of the effects in rate of change of the alternative. Squares and whiskers represent the mean effect and 95% CI found in each study, respectively. The rhombus depicts the summary of the effect, with its centre representing the average effect and its length the 95% CI. Unpublished studies are followed by an asterisk

Figure 3

Fig. 4 Sunset (power-enhanced) funnel plot with both published (white dots) and unpublished (black dots) studies. The x axis shows the strength of the effect, the y axis shows the standard error of the effect, and colours depict the statistical power of the studies. Power is computed at the study level assuming the meta-analytic summary effect as the true effect. Contours represent 95 and 99% confidence intervals for an effect equal to zero, meaning that dots on top and outside both contours, or inside the purple area, are an indication of an effect different from zero. The vertical dotted line depicts the main effect found in the meta-analysis. Medpower is the median power of all studies included. d33 and d66 indicate the true effect size necessary such that the median power of the studies would have been 33% or 66% respectively. E, O and pTES show the results of a test of excess significance (Ioannidis & Trikalinos, 2007), and R-Index denotes expected replicability

Figure 4

Fig. 5 Leave-one-out analysis. Sensitivity analysis showing the change in the effect eliminating single groups of pooled studies. Unpublished studies are followed by an asterisk

Figure 5

Fig. 6 Forest plot with domain moderation analysis. Squares and whiskers represent the mean effect and 95% CI found in each study, respectively. The rhombus depicts the summary of the effect, with its centre representing the average effect and its length the 95% CI. Unpublished studies are followed by an asterisk

Figure 6

Table 1 Studies included in the meta-analysis

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