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Identification of a diagnosis-selective neurobiological substrate for bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder, and schizophrenia: a meta-analysis of 57,717 subjects

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 February 2026

Donato Liloia*
Affiliation:
Functional Neuroimaging and Complex Neural Systems (FOCUS) Laboratory, Department of Psychology, University of Turin, Turin, Italy Translational Neuroimaging & Brain Connectivity Group, GCS-fMRI Koelliker Hospital, Turin, Italy
Paola Rocca
Affiliation:
Department of Neuroscience “Rita Levi Montalcini”, University of Turin, Turin, Italy Neuroscience Institute of Turin (NIT), University of Turin, Turin, Italy
Claudio Brasso
Affiliation:
Department of Neuroscience “Rita Levi Montalcini”, University of Turin, Turin, Italy
Masaru Tanaka
Affiliation:
HUN-REN-SZTE Neuroscience Research Group, Hungarian Research Network,University of Szeged, Danube Neuroscience Research Laboratory, Szeged, Hungary
Jordi Manuello
Affiliation:
Functional Neuroimaging and Complex Neural Systems (FOCUS) Laboratory, Department of Psychology, University of Turin, Turin, Italy Neuroimaging & Data Science Group,GCS-fMRI Koelliker Hospital, Turin, Italy Department of Social and Human Science, University of Valle D’Aosta, Aosta, Italy
Annachiara Crocetta
Affiliation:
Functional Neuroimaging and Complex Neural Systems (FOCUS) Laboratory, Department of Psychology, University of Turin, Turin, Italy Translational Neuroimaging & Brain Connectivity Group, GCS-fMRI Koelliker Hospital, Turin, Italy Neuroimaging & Data Science Group,GCS-fMRI Koelliker Hospital, Turin, Italy
Sergio Duca
Affiliation:
Translational Neuroimaging & Brain Connectivity Group, GCS-fMRI Koelliker Hospital, Turin, Italy Neuroimaging & Data Science Group,GCS-fMRI Koelliker Hospital, Turin, Italy Computational Neuroimaging & Complex Systems Group, GCS-fMRI Koelliker Hospital, Turin, Italy
Tommaso Costa
Affiliation:
Functional Neuroimaging and Complex Neural Systems (FOCUS) Laboratory, Department of Psychology, University of Turin, Turin, Italy Neuroscience Institute of Turin (NIT), University of Turin, Turin, Italy Computational Neuroimaging & Complex Systems Group, GCS-fMRI Koelliker Hospital, Turin, Italy
Franco Cauda
Affiliation:
Functional Neuroimaging and Complex Neural Systems (FOCUS) Laboratory, Department of Psychology, University of Turin, Turin, Italy Translational Neuroimaging & Brain Connectivity Group, GCS-fMRI Koelliker Hospital, Turin, Italy Neuroscience Institute of Turin (NIT), University of Turin, Turin, Italy Neuroimaging & Data Science Group,GCS-fMRI Koelliker Hospital, Turin, Italy Computational Neuroimaging & Complex Systems Group, GCS-fMRI Koelliker Hospital, Turin, Italy
*
Corresponding author: Donato Liloia; Email: donato.liloia@unito.it
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Abstract

Background

Neuroimaging studies have consistently revealed neuroanatomical abnormalities in individuals with bipolar disorder (BD), major depressive disorder (MDD), and schizophrenia (SZ). However, it remains unknown whether and to what extent disorder-selective gray matter variations occur in these prominent psychiatric disorders. This study conducted a meta-analysis of 25 years of published voxel-based morphometry (VBM) research to assess the presence of selective and robust neuroanatomical substrates of gray matter variation in BD, MDD, and SZ.

Methods

Peer-reviewed experiments encompassing subjects with target disorders were systematically searched in the MEDLINE database. Additionally, peer-reviewed data on 30 other psychiatric disorders and 65 neurological diseases were obtained from the BrainMap database. Experiments reporting whole-brain group comparisons between patients and healthy controls were included if they identified significant reductions in gray matter morphometry.

Results

The data were analyzed using the Bayes fACtor mOdeliNg algorithm. A total of 1,021 VBM experiments were included, comprising 29,540 patients and 28,177 healthy controls. Primary analyses of psychiatric data revealed strong evidence of gray matter reduction in the right middle temporal gyrus for BD and the posterior dorsal anterior cingulate cortex for SZ (P ≥ 95% selectivity). The robustness of these findings was confirmed using the fail-safe method tailored to the neuroimaging meta-analytic environment. No selective findings were observed in additional analyses that included neurological diseases.

Conclusions

Taken together, these findings offer a framework that underscores the significance of diagnosis-selective neural substrates in psychopathology, a new perspective that could inform distinct pathophysiological processes and assist in diagnosis and treatment.

Information

Type
Original Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press
Figure 0

Figure 1. Overview of the analytical procedures. (A) A total of 8,740 coordinates of significant gray matter variation from 29,540 patients were extracted from 1,021 published voxel-based morphometry experiments. (B) Graphical representation of the data analytic pipeline, from the variation coordinates to the selectivity whole-brain map. The final statistical parametric map, which represents the values of the selective probability of the disorder of interest, is obtained with the Bayes factor computation implemented in the Bayes fACtor mOdeliNg plugin. (C) Data groupings for estimating the selectivity of the gray matter landscape in BD (analysis 1), MDD (analysis 2), and SZ (analysis 3) patients. (D) Robustness and supplementary functional and behavioral analyses of the Bayes fACtor mOdeliNg results. Note: BACON = Bayes fACtor mOdeliNg; BD = bipolar disorder; BF = Bayes factor; EXP. = experiment; MDD = major depressive disorder; SZ = schizophrenia.

Figure 1

Figure 2. Overview of literature selection and coding (PRISMA flowchart). Note: BD = bipolar disorder; MDD = major depressive disorder; N = number of; ROI = region-of-interest; SZ = schizophrenia disorder; SVC = small volume correction; WM = white matter; VBM = voxel-based morphometry.

Figure 2

Table 1. Clusters of selective gray matter variation in bipolar disorder (A), major depressive disorder (B), and schizophrenia (C) derived from Bayes fACtor mOdeliNg analysis of psychiatric-only data and thresholded at P (disorder-of-interest | variation) $ \ge $ 0.95 (95%)

Figure 3

Figure 3. Robust clusters of selective gray matter variation in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia and their network-level functional and behavioral characterizations. (A) Brain cluster of selective gray matter variation in bipolar disorder derived from Bayes fACtor mOdeliNg analysis of psychiatric disorders data thresholded at P (bipolar disorder | variation) $ \ge $ 0.95 (95%) and remaining stable over 30% of injected random experiments via fail-safe analysis. On the right side, the meta-analytic coactivation map (MACM) shows areas coactivated with the cluster of variation in healthy participant task-based activation experiments in the BrainMap database, as well as its statistically linked physiological mental processes derived from the behavioral analysis of the BrainMap database. (B) Brain cluster of selective gray matter variation in schizophrenia derived from Bayes fACtor mOdeliNg analysis of psychiatric disorders data thresholded at P (schizophrenia | variation) $ \ge $ 0.95 (95%) and remaining stable over 30% of injected random experiments via fail-safe analysis. On the right side, the MACM shows areas coactivated with the cluster of variation in healthy participant task-based activation experiments in the BrainMap database, as well as its statistically linked physiological mental processes derived from the behavioral analysis of the BrainMap database. The Bayes fACtor mOdeliNg results are visualized as hemispheric surfaces (three-dimensional view). MACM results are visualized as axial slices (two-dimensional cortical and subcortical views). Templates are in neurological convention. Note: ACC = posterior dorsal anterior cingulate cortex; ALE = activation likelihood estimation; MTG = middle temporal gyrus.

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