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Temporal patterns of suicidal ideation prevalence during the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal studies

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 December 2025

Xuefei Tao
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Adolescent CyberPsychology and Behavior, CCNU, Ministry of Education, Wuhan, China Key Laboratory of Human Development and Mental Health of Hubei Province, School of Psychology, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, China
Zhihui Zhang
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Adolescent CyberPsychology and Behavior, CCNU, Ministry of Education, Wuhan, China Key Laboratory of Human Development and Mental Health of Hubei Province, School of Psychology, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, China
Li Liang
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Adolescent CyberPsychology and Behavior, CCNU, Ministry of Education, Wuhan, China Key Laboratory of Human Development and Mental Health of Hubei Province, School of Psychology, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, China
Shen Xu
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Adolescent CyberPsychology and Behavior, CCNU, Ministry of Education, Wuhan, China Key Laboratory of Human Development and Mental Health of Hubei Province, School of Psychology, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, China
Xiayu Du
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Adolescent CyberPsychology and Behavior, CCNU, Ministry of Education, Wuhan, China Key Laboratory of Human Development and Mental Health of Hubei Province, School of Psychology, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, China
Zhihong Ren*
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Adolescent CyberPsychology and Behavior, CCNU, Ministry of Education, Wuhan, China Key Laboratory of Human Development and Mental Health of Hubei Province, School of Psychology, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, China School of Psychology, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian, China
Xianglian Yu
Affiliation:
Department of Education, Jianghan University, Wuhan, China
*
Corresponding author: Zhihong Ren; Email: ren@ccnu.edu.cn
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Abstract

Aims

Although extensive research has been conducted on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global mental health, a systematic synthesis of the cross-time dynamics of suicidal ideation (SI) remains lacking. This study aims to systematically synthesise the global aggregated prevalence of SI before and after the pandemic, investigate the potential association between pandemic exposure and the SI risk through meta-regression analysis of longitudinal studies, and explore key moderating factors.

Methods

A systematic search was conducted in Web of Science, PubMed, PsycINFO and ProQuest databases up to August 2025. Observational studies were included if they employed cross-sectional or longitudinal designs and reported the prevalence of SI before and after the pandemic across global regions.

Results

The analysis included 354 cross-sectional studies (N = 8,247,875) and 27 longitudinal studies. In cross-sectional studies, the pooled prevalence of SI was 13.20% [95% CI 12.06%–14.42%]. Pre-pandemic prevalence was 12.52% [95% CI 8.46%–18.14%], and post-pandemic prevalence was 13.24% [95% CI 12.07%–14.50%], with no significant difference. Meta-regression analysis identified three moderators. Specifically, larger sample sizes (n) were associated with lower prevalence (β = −0.232, P < 0.0001); higher study quality predicted lower prevalence (β = −0.278, P < 0.001); and studies on adults reported significantly lower prevalence than adolescents (β = −0.366, P < 0.05). Conversely, time progression during the pandemic, development level, geographical area, gender and measurement method did not show significant independent effects. Interaction analyses also found no significant moderating effect of economic development level or geographical area on the temporal trend of SI prevalence. Longitudinal analysis found no significant increase in prevalence from the pre-pandemic to the post-pandemic period (P = 0.101). However, a small but significant increase occurred between early and late stages within the pandemic (β = 0.265, P = 0.021). Subgroup analyses showed no significant moderation of these temporal changes.

Conclusions

The COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on SI was dynamic. While no significant prevalence change was found between pre- and post-pandemic periods, a significant increase occurred as the crisis progressed. This deteriorating trend was more pronounced in adolescents, identifying them as a key vulnerable group. Methodologically, findings were moderated by the measurement instrument, study quality and sample size, with evidence suggesting potential small-study effects. These findings underscore the need for robust mental health surveillance and targeted interventions for at-risk populations during prolonged public health crises.

The protocol was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42024603151).

Information

Type
Original Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press.
Figure 0

Figure 1. Study selection process.

Figure 1

Table 1. Details of included studies

Figure 2

Table 2. Meta-regression results of the random effects model for the prevalence of SI

Figure 3

Table 3. Results of the interaction analysis

Figure 4

Figure 2. Post-pandemic suicidal ideation prevalence. Source: Grey represents countries with missing data.

Figure 5

Figure 3. Forest plot. source: The effect size for each study is the log odds ratio (LOR), representing the change in prevalence between two time points. The top panel displays the comparison between the pre-pandemic and post-pandemic periods. The bottom panel displays the comparison between early and late post-pandemic periods. Diamonds represent the pooled LOR from random-effects models.

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