Hostname: page-component-5db58dd55d-h5th4 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2026-05-30T21:37:15.341Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Do external threats increase bipartisanship in the United States? An experimental test in the shadow of China's rise

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 February 2025

Eddy S. F. Yeung*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
Weifang Xu
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
*
Corresponding author: Eddy S. F. Yeung; Email: shing.fung.yeung@emory.edu
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Do external threats increase American bipartisanship? We subject this question to an experimental test. Leveraging the Biden and Trump administrations’ similar characterization of the China threat, we exposed American respondents to real-world primes about security threats from China, while randomizing the messenger of such primes. We find that the threat primes—regardless of the partisan identity of their messenger—boosted Democrats’ and Republicans’ support for assertive foreign policy in a largely parallel manner, thereby failing to reduce preference polarization. Importantly, there were no measurable changes across multiple indicators of affective polarization. These findings clarify the limits of external threats in uniting Americans, while also challenging recent perspectives that external threats—often colored by elite rhetoric—will further polarize the American public.

Information

Type
Research Note
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of EPS Academic Ltd
Figure 0

Figure 1. Average treatment effects on preferences for US foreign policy. Note: Plotted point estimates indicate the average treatment effects on foreign policy assertiveness, i.e., mean differences in preferences for assertive US foreign policy between the treatment and control groups. Higher values indicate stronger preferences for the assertive foreign policy. Error bars represent 95 percent confidence intervals.

Figure 1

Figure 2. CATEs and differences-in-CATEs for democrats’ and republicans’ US foreign policy preferences. Note: CATEs refer to the average treatment effects conditional on a respondent characteristic, which is partisanship in this case. Table S3 shows the regression estimates. Figures S2–S5 show the control mean and distribution of responses. Error bars represent 95 percent confidence intervals.

Figure 2

Figure 3. Average treatment effects on affective polarization. Note: Plotted point estimates indicate the average treatment effects on affective polarization, i.e., mean differences in indicators of negative out-party affect between the treatment and control groups. All variables are rescaled to take the range from 0 to 1, with higher values indicating higher levels of negative out-party affect. Error bars represent 95 percent confidence intervals.

Supplementary material: File

Yeung and Xu supplementary material

Yeung and Xu supplementary material
Download Yeung and Xu supplementary material(File)
File 1.5 MB