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A Bayesian approach to estimating the population prevalence of mood and anxiety disorders using multiple measures

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 January 2021

Jordan Edwards*
Affiliation:
Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada Lawson Health Research Institute, London, Ontario, Canada
A. Demetri Pananos
Affiliation:
Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada
Amardeep Thind
Affiliation:
Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada Interfaculty Program in Public Health, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada Department of Family Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine & Dentistry, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada
Saverio Stranges
Affiliation:
Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada Department of Family Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine & Dentistry, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada Department of Population Health, Luxembourg Institute of Health, Strassen, Luxembourg
Maria Chiu
Affiliation:
ICES, Toronto, Ontario, Canada Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Kelly K. Anderson
Affiliation:
Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada Lawson Health Research Institute, London, Ontario, Canada ICES, Toronto, Ontario, Canada Department of Psychiatry, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada
*
Author for correspondence: Jordan Edwards, E-mail: jedwa@uwo.ca
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Abstract

Aims

There is currently no universally accepted measure for population-based surveillance of mood and anxiety disorders. As such, the use of multiple linked measures could provide a more accurate estimate of population prevalence. Our primary objective was to apply Bayesian methods to two commonly employed population measures of mood and anxiety disorders to make inferences regarding the population prevalence and measurement properties of a combined measure.

Methods

We used data from the 2012 Canadian Community Health Survey – Mental Health linked to health administrative databases in Ontario, Canada. Structured interview diagnoses were obtained from the survey, and health administrative diagnoses were identified using a standardised algorithm. These two prevalence estimates, in addition to data on the concordance between these measures and prior estimates of their psychometric properties, were used to inform our combined estimate. The marginal posterior densities of all parameters were estimated using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. Summaries of posterior distributions, including the means and 95% equally tailed posterior credible intervals, were used for interpretation of the results.

Results

The combined prevalence mean was 8.6%, with a credible interval of 6.8–10.6%. This combined estimate sits between Bayesian-derived prevalence estimates from administrative data-derived diagnoses (mean = 7.4%) and the survey-derived diagnoses (mean = 13.9%). The results of our sensitivity analysis suggest that varying the specificity of the survey-derived measure has an appreciable impact on the combined posterior prevalence estimate. Our combined posterior prevalence estimate remained stable when varying other prior information. We detected no problematic HMC behaviour, and our posterior predictive checks suggest that our model can reliably recreate our data.

Conclusions

Accurate population-based estimates of disease are the cornerstone of health service planning and resource allocation. As a greater number of linked population data sources become available, so too does the opportunity for researchers to fully capitalise on the data. The true population prevalence of mood and anxiety disorders may reside between estimates obtained from survey data and health administrative data. We have demonstrated how the use of Bayesian approaches may provide a more informed and accurate estimate of mood and anxiety disorders in the population. This work provides a blueprint for future population-based estimates of disease using linked health data.

Information

Type
Original Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re- use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press
Figure 0

Table 1. Concordance between survey structured interview and administrative data diagnosed mood and anxiety disorders in Ontario, Canada (Edwards et al., 2019a)

Figure 1

Fig. 1. Marginal posterior density for the prevalence of mood or anxiety disorders in Ontario, Canada, using data from both survey and administrative data combined. Note: π represents posterior prevalence using both administrative and survey data, δ1 represents sensitivity for administrative data, and γ1 represents specificity for administrative data, δ2 represents sensitivity for survey data, and γ2 represents specificity for survey data.

Figure 2

Table 2. Marginal prior and posterior medians and 95% CI of the posterior equally tailed 95% CI for the prevalence (π) and sensitivities (δ1, δ2) and specificities (γ1, γ2) for each measure of mood and anxiety disorder and the combination of the two measures

Figure 3

Fig. 2. Results from the sensitivity analysis testing the impact of variation in psychometric properties on the posterior prevalence. Note: π represents posterior prevalence using both administrative and survey data, δ1 represents sensitivity for administrative data, and γ1 represents specificity for administrative data, δ2 represents sensitivity for survey data, and γ2 represents specificity for survey data. We find that changes in the prior expectation for the sensitivities of both survey and administrative data, as well as the specificity of the administrative data, do not appreciably change the expected prevalence. We do find that changes to the specificity of the survey data have a considerable influence on the expected prevalence. The coloured intervals represent the credible intervals of the expected prevalence with three different values of the specificity for the survey data. Red represents a prior expectation for the specificity of 88%, green 93% and blue 98%.

Figure 4

Fig. 3. Posterior predictive checks to assess model reliability. Note: Our model estimates for the expected count in each cell are shown as a black dot. Associated 95% credible intervals are indicated. The vertical lines indicate the observed counts in each cell. We note that since our expectations are close to the observations, our model is capable of reproducing our data.