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Natural remission rates of depression among rural adult populations in India: multilevel analysis of the SMART Mental Health Project

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 May 2025

Pallab K. Maulik*
Affiliation:
Research, George Institute for Global Health, New Delhi, India Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Mercian Daniel
Affiliation:
Research, George Institute for Global Health, New Delhi, India
Arpita Ghosh
Affiliation:
Research, George Institute for Global Health, New Delhi, India
Siddhardha Devarapalli
Affiliation:
Research, George Institute for Global Health, New Delhi, India
Sudha Kallakuri
Affiliation:
Research, George Institute for Global Health, New Delhi, India
Amanpreet Kaur
Affiliation:
Research, George Institute for Global Health, New Delhi, India Jindal School of Psychology & Counselling, O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat, India
Rajesh Sagar
Affiliation:
Department of Psychiatry, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
Laurent Billot
Affiliation:
Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia Research, George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, Australia
Graham Thornicroft
Affiliation:
Centre for Global Mental Health and Centre for Implementation Science, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King’s College London, London, UK
Shekhar Saxena
Affiliation:
Global Health and Population, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, USA
Anushka Patel
Affiliation:
Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia Research, George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, Australia
David Peiris
Affiliation:
Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia Research, George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, Australia
*
Correspondence: Pallab K. Maulik. Email: pmaulik@georgeinstitute.org.in
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Abstract

Background

Natural remission from common mental disorders (CMDs), in the absence of intervention, varies greatly. The situation in India is unknown.

Aims

This study examined individual, village and primary health centre (PHC)-level determinants for remission across two rural communities in north and south India and reports natural remission rates.

Method

Using pre-intervention trial data from 44 PHCs in Andhra Pradesh and Haryana, adults ≥18 years were screened for CMDs. Screen-positive people (Patient Health Questionnaire-9 Item (PHQ9) or Generalised Anxiety Disorder-7 Item (GAD7) score ≥10, or a score ≥2 on the self-harm PHQ9 question) were re-screened after 5–7 months (mean). Remission was defined <5 scores on both PHQ9 and GAD7 and <2 score on self-harm. Multilevel Poisson regression models with random effects at individual, village and PHC levels were developed for each state to identify factors associated with remission. Time to re-screening was included as offset in regression models.

Results

Of 100 013 people in Andhra Pradesh and 69 807 people in Haryana, 2.4% and 7.1%, respectively, were screen positive. At re-screening, remission rate in Andhra Pradesh was 82.3% (95% CI 77.5–87.4%) and 59.4% (95% CI 55.7–63.3%) in Haryana. Being female, increasing age and higher baseline depression and anxiety scores were associated with lower remission rates. None of the considered village- and PHC-level factors were found to be associated with remission rate, after adjusting for individual-level factors.

Conclusion

Natural remission for CMDs vary greatly in two Indian states and are associated with complex, multilevel factors. Further research is recommended to better understand natural remission.

Information

Type
Original Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Royal College of Psychiatrists
Figure 0

Fig. 1 Screening and re-screening samples in Andhra Pradesh and Haryana.

Figure 1

Fig. 2 Remission rates in primary health centres in Andhra Pradesh and Haryana.

Figure 2

Table 1 Baseline characteristics of study participants

Figure 3

Table 2 Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) from multilevel Poisson regression models – univariable analyses

Figure 4

Table 3 Multilevel Poisson regression – multivariable analysis

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