Hostname: page-component-89b8bd64d-46n74 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2026-05-09T05:47:10.355Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Calculating individualized risk components using a mobile app-based risk calculator for clinical high risk of psychosis: findings from ShangHai At Risk for Psychosis (SHARP) program

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 December 2019

TianHong Zhang
Affiliation:
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200030, China
LiHua Xu
Affiliation:
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200030, China
HuiJun Li
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, Florida A and M University, Tallahassee, Florida 32307, USA
Kristen A. Woodberry
Affiliation:
Harvard Medical School Department of Psychiatry, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, 75 Fenwood Rd, Boston, MA 02115, USA Center for Psychiatric Research, Maine Medical Center Research Institute, Portland, Maine
Emily R. Kline
Affiliation:
Harvard Medical School Department of Psychiatry, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, 75 Fenwood Rd, Boston, MA 02115, USA
Jian Jiang
Affiliation:
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200030, China
HuiRu Cui
Affiliation:
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200030, China
YingYing Tang
Affiliation:
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200030, China
XiaoChen Tang
Affiliation:
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200030, China
YanYan Wei
Affiliation:
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200030, China
Li Hui
Affiliation:
Institute of Mental Health, The Affiliated Guangji Hospital of Soochow University, Soochow University, Suzhou 215137, Jiangsu, China
Zheng Lu
Affiliation:
Department of Psychiatry, Tongji Hospital, Tongji University, School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
LiPing Cao
Affiliation:
Department of Early Intervention, Affiliated Brain Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University (Guangzhou Huiai Hospital), Guangdong Engineering Technology Research Center for Translational Medicine of Mental Disorders, Guangzhou 510370, China
ChunBo Li
Affiliation:
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200030, China
Margaret A. Niznikiewicz
Affiliation:
Harvard Medical School Department of Psychiatry, Veteran's Administration Medical Center, Boston, MA 02130, USA
Martha E. Shenton
Affiliation:
Departments of Psychiatry and Radiology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, and Harvard Medical School, and VA Boston Healthcare System, Boston, MA, USA
Matcheri S. Keshavan
Affiliation:
Harvard Medical School Department of Psychiatry, Veteran's Administration Medical Center, Boston, MA 02130, USA
William S. Stone
Affiliation:
Harvard Medical School Department of Psychiatry, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, 75 Fenwood Rd, Boston, MA 02115, USA
JiJun Wang*
Affiliation:
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200030, China Key Laboratory for the Genetics of Developmental and Neuropsychiatric Disorders (Ministry of Education), Bio-X Institutes, Shanghai, China CAS Center for Excellence in Brain Science and Intelligence Technology (CEBSIT), Chinese Academy of Science, Shanghai, China
*
Author for correspondence: JiJun Wang, E-mail: jijunwang27@163.com
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Background

Only 30% or fewer of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) convert to full psychosis within 2 years. Efforts are thus underway to refine risk identification strategies to increase their predictive power. Our objective was to develop and validate the predictive accuracy and individualized risk components of a mobile app-based psychosis risk calculator (RC) in a CHR sample from the SHARP (ShangHai At Risk for Psychosis) program.

Method

In total, 400 CHR individuals were identified by the Chinese version of the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes. In the first phase of 300 CHR individuals, 196 subjects (65.3%) who completed neurocognitive assessments and had at least a 2-year follow-up assessment were included in the construction of an RC for psychosis. In the second phase of the SHARP sample of 100 subjects, 93 with data integrity were included to validate the performance of the SHARP-RC.

Results

The SHARP-RC showed good discrimination of subsequent transition to psychosis with an AUC of 0.78 (p < 0.001). The individualized risk generated by the SHARP-RC provided a solid estimation of conversion in the independent validation sample, with an AUC of 0.80 (p = 0.003). A risk estimate of 20% or higher had excellent sensitivity (84%) and moderate specificity (63%) for the prediction of psychosis. The relative contribution of individual risk components can be simultaneously generated. The mobile app-based SHARP-RC was developed as a convenient tool for individualized psychosis risk appraisal.

Conclusions

The SHARP-RC provides a practical tool not only for assessing the probability that an individual at CHR will develop full psychosis, but also personal risk components that might be targeted in early intervention.

Information

Type
Original Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2019
Figure 0

Table 1. Clinical and cognitive variables selected from the development sample, comparison between converters and non-converters

Figure 1

Table 2. Standardized factor loadings obtained from exploratory factor analysis, using varimax rotation, of 14 clinical and cognitive variables (n = 196)

Figure 2

Table 3. Logistic regression for predicting the conversion to psychosis

Figure 3

Fig. 1. Receiver operating characteristic curve for the development model.

Figure 4

Fig. 2. Frequency distributions of model-predicted risks among non-converters and converters.

Figure 5

Table 4. Prediction statistics for conversion to psychosis across various levels of model-predicted risk

Zhang et al. supplementary material

Zhang et al. supplementary material 1

Download Zhang et al. supplementary material(Video)
Video 5.1 MB
Supplementary material: File

Zhang et al. supplementary material

Zhang et al. supplementary material 2

Download Zhang et al. supplementary material(File)
File 465.9 KB
Supplementary material: File

Zhang et al. supplementary material

Zhang et al. supplementary material 3

Download Zhang et al. supplementary material(File)
File 205 KB
Supplementary material: File

Zhang et al. supplementary material

Zhang et al. supplementary material 4

Download Zhang et al. supplementary material(File)
File 180.7 KB
Supplementary material: File

Zhang et al. supplementary material

Zhang et al. supplementary material 5

Download Zhang et al. supplementary material(File)
File 256.5 KB