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Tracing the electorate of the MoVimento Cinque Stelle: an ecological inference analysis

Part of: IPSR-RISP 5-Star Collection

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 November 2016

Luana Russo ,
Pedro Riera  and
Tom Verthé
Luana Russo*
Affiliation:
Maastricht University, Department of Political Science, Maastricht, The Netherlands
Pedro Riera
Affiliation:
University Carlos III of Madrid, Department of Social Sciences, Madrid, Spain
Tom Verthé
Affiliation:
Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Department of Political Science, Brussels, Belgium
*
*E-mail: l.russo@maastrichtuniversity.nl
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Abstract

The 2013 Italian parliamentary election was characterized by the outstanding performance of the MoVimento Cinque Stelle, which in its first participation in a general election obtained a remarkable 25% of the national vote. Where did these votes come from? Furthermore, is it possible to observe different electoral dynamics across geographical areas of Italy? In order to address these questions, we first estimate the flow of votes between the 2008 and 2013 general elections by applying an ecological inference method – the Goodman model – to the entire Italian voting population, and then we take a closer look at the differences in the four geopolitical areas in which Italy is traditionally divided. We find that the extraordinary performance of the MoVimento 5 Stelle was largely due to its capacity of attracting similar amounts of former Partito Democratico and Popolo della Libertà supporters, as well as a considerable amount of voters from their traditional allies: Lega Nord and Italia dei Valori. The MoVimento 5 Stelle was also able to mobilize previous non-voters. We shed light on the territorial features of these dynamics.

Keywords

electionsItalyvoting behaviour
Type
Research Article
Information
Italian Political Science Review / Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica , Volume 47 , Issue 1 , March 2017 , pp. 45 - 62
Copyright
© Società Italiana di Scienza Politica 2016 

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http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/20IR0P
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