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¹⁰ Gandhi and Przeworski, ‘Authoritarian Institutions and the Survival of Autocrats’; Magaloni, ‘Credible Power-Sharing and the Longevity of Authoritarian Rule’.

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²⁰ These typological distinctions are not simply another way of coding institutional variables such as the number of parties or legislatures. As Table 2 (see below) demonstrates, all institutional configurations are found in all types of regimes.

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³¹ We are grateful to an anonymous reviewer for pointing this out to us.

³² Party-based regimes without legislatures include: Algeria 1965–76, Bolivia 1953–54, Burundi 1968–87, Iraq 1969–79, Laos 1985–90, Lesotho 1970–86, Panama 1968–77, Rwanda 1974–88. A quick comparison of these regimes with the mass party organization of the PRI in Mexico or the CCM in Tanzania suggests that the latter parties (with legislatures) had more extensive distribution networks and voter mobilization reach.

³³ As an example of the ‘winner’ category, recall that in Mexico while the PRI candidate lost to the PAN candidate in the presidential election in 2000 and placed third in 2006, the PRI won the largest share of votes in the lower house in 2003. See the Appendix for details on the post-transition electoral results used to code these parties (A12).

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³⁵ Many ARENA legislators left the party after 1985, leading to the demise of ARENA, but these legislators often found homes in other parties. See Hagopian, Frances, ‘Democracy by Undemocratic Means? Elites, Political Pacts, and Regime Transition in Contemporary Brazil’, Comparative Political Studies, 23 (1990), 147–170CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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⁴⁰ Croissant argues that Roh Tae-woo ‘personally guaranteed the protection of the military's interests, values, and political status’. See Croissant, Aurel, ‘Riding the Tiger: Civilian Control and the Military in Democratizing Korea’, Armed Forces & Society, 30 (2004), 357–381CrossRefGoogle Scholar, p. 371.

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⁴⁶ Gandhi, Political Institutions under Dictatorship. Because these data are coded as of 31 December each year, we recode these variables with the previous year's observation for years in which there is a transition. Without these changes to the institutions variables, the coding would be endogenous by construction.

⁴⁷ This variable for parties measures de facto parties which are parties that exist outside the ruling front. This variable does not code whether the parties have seats in the legislature.

⁴⁸ Williams and Walter, Militarization and Demilitarization.

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⁵⁵ Maddala, Limited Dependent and Qualitative Variables, p. 244–5. We estimated the parties equation in (3), using both ordered probit and OLS with the same set of explanatory variables (X ₁, X ₂). The instruments produced by these two estimation methods are nearly perfectly collinear (though with different scales; the in-sample correlation coefficient is 0.997). This means that the cut points in the ordered model are capturing roughly the same amount of (linear) latent space. This should give us some confidence that using OLS instead of an ordered model in (3) will produce similar results. We then estimated a full maximum likelihood model of equations (1)–(4) in which Parties is estimated with OLS and Democ with a probit. See Keshk, Omar, ‘CDSIMEQ: A program to implement two-stage probit least squares’, Stata Journal, 3 (2003), 157–167Google Scholar. This estimation corrects the standard errors according to the method suggested by Maddala (pp. 244–5). Next, we compared the standard errors from the two-step estimator (using ordinary least squares (OLS) in (3)) and the full maximum likelihood estimator. We found that in each of the specifications the corrected standard errors were roughly 2 per cent larger than the (uncorrected) standard errors from the two-step estimator. We then estimated the system using an ordered model for (1) and (3) in two stages and adjusted the errors in (2). In the Democracy models 1–3 in Table 3, we inflated the errors by 2.0 per cent and deflated the errors in the Dictator models by 5.7 per cent (for the institutions variables). In models 4–6, the respective standard error corrections were: +4.5 per cent and −6.2 per cent. In models 7–9, the respective standard error corrections were: +3.3 per cent and −1.2 per cent.

⁵⁶ Islam is the share of the population that is Muslim, from Bruce Bueno de Mequita, Alastair Smith, Randolph Siverson and James Morrow, Logic of Political Survival (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2003),with updates from the CIA, World Factbook. Ethnic fractionalization is from Fearon, James D. and Laitin, David, ‘Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War’, American Political Science Review, 97 (2003), 75–90CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Both of these variables are time invariant.

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⁶⁰ If the control for Military regime is excluded from the specification, legislatures decrease the likelihood of democratization, a finding consistent with Hypothesis 2.

⁶¹ Predicted probabilities calculated from Models 6 and 9 in Table 3, respectively. We use CLARIFY and set Cold War to zero with all other variables set to their mean or median values. For CLARIFY, see Tomz, Michael, Wittenberg, Jason and King, Gary, ‘Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation’, American Journal of Political Science, 44 (2000), 347–361Google Scholar. For each regime type, we set the duration variables to the in-sample mean value for each regime type. For military regimes, this value is 7, for personalist regimes 12, and for party regimes 20. The instrument for parties () is a continuous variable, so we take the median from the distribution of 's that lies below the first cut-point (zero parties); the median between the cut-point (one party); and the median from the distribution of 's that lies above the second cut-point (two parties). For , we use the median for the subset of 's that lie below the mean predicted value as ‘no legislature’ and the median for the subset of 's that above below the mean predicted value as ‘legislature’. These latter values are close to the 25 percentile and the 75 percentile of the distribution of 's.

⁶² Lust-Okar, Structuring Conflict in the Arab World; Magaloni, ‘Credible Power-Sharing and the Longevity of Authoritarian Rule’.

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⁶⁷ We also checked these results with a Heckman selection model where the first stage models selection into one of three categories: no parties; one party; multiple parties. The results from this analysis suggest that multiple parties increase the likelihood of democratization. Among non-personalist regimes, the likelihood of democratization is 0.6 per cent, increasing to 0.8 per cent with one party, and increasing again to 3.1 per cent with multiple parties.

⁶⁸ In a random effects specification, though, these coefficients are statistically significant at the 0.10 level.

⁶⁹ We did not estimate separate samples for military and party-based regimes because nearly all party regimes have a legislature.

⁷⁰ There are many fewer observations for military regimes than for dominant party regimes, reflected in the larger standard error estimate for Parties in military regimes.

⁷¹ Gandhi and Przeworski, ‘Authoritarian Institutions and the Survival of Autocrats’; Abel Escribà-Folch, ‘El Destino de los Dictadores tras el Poder ¿Quién y Cómo Puede Castigarlos?’ Revista de Estudios Polìticos, 140 (2008), 105–33. Concretely, these data are coded as the Effective Head of Government: (1) presidents in presidential democracies; (2) prime ministers in parliamentary and mixed democracies, except in the cases of Djohar in Comoros and Preval in Haiti; (3) general-secretaries of the communist party in communist dictatorships, except in the case of Deng Xiaoping in China; (4) kings, presidents and de facto rulers in non-communist dictatorships, except in the cases of Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, where the effective head is sometimes the prime minister; and (5) military or other figure, when sources indicate that the nominal head is a puppet figure.

⁷² Goemans, Gleditsch and Chiozza, ‘Introducing Archigos’. The Archigos data are episode data, with one observation per leader per country. The Archigos variable Post Tenure Fate indicates the fate of the leader in the period up to one year after the leader lost power: 0 (OK), 1 (Exile), 2 (Imprisonment, including house arrent) or 3 (Death).

⁷³ Stephen Haggard and Kaufman, Robert R., Political Economy of Democratic Transitions (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1995)Google Scholar.

⁷⁴ The results in columns 5 and 6 remain if we exclude those regimes that have regularized leadership turnover: Brazil (1964–85), El Salvador (1948–82), Mexico (1929–2000), Uruguay (1973–84) and Tanzania (1986–2002/censored).

⁷⁵ Geddes, ‘Authoritarian Breakdown’; Boix, Democracy and Redistribution; Smith, ‘Life of the Party’; Magaloni, Beatric, Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and Its Demise in Mexico (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Gandhi and Przeworski, ‘Authoritarian Institutions and the Survival of Autocrats’; Brownlee, Authoritarianism in the Age of Democratization; Gandhi, Political Institutions Under Dictatorship; Magaloni, ‘Credible Power-Sharing and the Longevity of Authoritarian Rule’; Wright, ‘Do Authoritarian Institutions Constrain?’

⁷⁶ Gandhi and Przeworski, ‘Authoritarian Institutions and the Survival of Autocrats’; Magaloni, ‘Credible Power-Sharing and the Longevity of Authoritarian Rule’; Geddes, ‘Party Creation as an Autocratic Survival Strategy’. For a view which parallels ours, see Cox, Gary, ‘Authoritarian Elections and Leadership Succession, 1975–2000’ (unpublished paper, Department of Political Science, University of California, San Diego)Google Scholar.

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⁷⁹ See, for example, Moustafa, Tamir, The Struggle for Constitutional Power: Law, Politics, and Economic Development in Egypt (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁸⁰ Most of the sub-Saharan Africa dominant party regimes in Table 1 have not fared well in the post-transition period. However, some former authoritarian parties in personalist regimes in this region have met with some electoral success. For example, the NDC in Ghana finished a strong second in 2004 and the MPC in Malawi finished a strong second in 1999 and won in 2004. This underscores the need to measure the relationship between the leader and the party more precisely than a dummy variable for Personalist regimes.

⁸¹ Peceny, Beer and Sanchez-Terry, ‘Dictatorial Peace?’; Reiter and Stam, ‘Identifying the Culprit’; Weeks, Jessica, ‘Autocratic Audience Costs: Regime Type and Signaling Resolve’, International Organization, 62 (2008), 35–64CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Wright, ‘Do Authoritarian Institutions Constrain?’ Fjelde, Hanne, ‘Generals, Dictators, and Kings: Authoritarian Regimes and Civil Conflict, 1973–2004’, Conflict Management and Peace Science, 27 (2010), 195–218CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Michael Albertrus, ‘Political Regimes and Poverty Reduction, 1950–2002’, presented at the Midwest Political Science Association meeting, Chicago, 2009.

⁸² Jackson and Rosberg, Personal Rule in Black Africa; Huntington, ‘How Countries Democratize’; Bratton and van de Walle, ‘Patrimonial Regimes and Political Transitions in Africa’; Geddes, ‘Authoritarian Breakdown’.