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El Paso Housing Sector Econometric Forecast Accuracy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 January 2015

Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.  and
Brian W. Kelley
Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.
Affiliation:
University of Texas at El Paso Department of Economics & Finance
Brian W. Kelley
Affiliation:
University of Texas at El Paso Department of Economics & Finance
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Abstract

There is comparatively little empirical evidence regarding the accuracy of regional housing sector forecasts. Much of the recent analysis conducted for this topic is developed for housing starts and indicates a relatively poor track record. This study examines residential real estate forecasts previously published for El Paso, TX using a structural econometric model. Model coverage is much broader than just starts. Similar to earlier studies, the previously published econometric predictions frequently do not fare very well against the selected random walk benchmarks utilized for the various series under consideration.

Keywords

applied econometricsmetropolitan housing sector forecastsC53R15R31

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Type
Articles
Information
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics , Volume 40 , Issue 1 , April 2007 , pp. 385 - 402
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 2008

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