How does identity threat affect mass political participation during times of autocratization? Building on social identity and group threat literatures, we theorize that perceived threats to Hong Konger identity increase voter turnout; however, the political salience of this threat is contingent on the degree of autocratization. We test this argument utilizing the case of Hong Kong, whose ongoing incorporation into the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has entered an unprecedented era of autocratization. We argue that threats to Hong Konger identity came to mobilize voter participation, especially as autocratization progressed in Hong Kong. Hong Kongers resisted during this period of political change through their intention to turn out to vote. We conducted three original experiments during different transitionary periods of Hong Kong’s autocratic shift. We find that priming identity threat had no effect on voter turnout before Hong Kong’s autocratic divergence. However, once more extreme forms of autocratization began, Hong Kongers assigned to an identical identity threat treatment were substantially more likely to report a higher likelihood of voting. This mobilizing effect persisted in a third experiment. Our results suggest a paradox where citizens’ propensity to vote increases when faced with perceived shrinking opportunities to participate in elections during times of authoritarian transition.

身份威胁在威权化时期如何影响大众的政治参与?基于社会身份认同与群际威胁的相关文献, 我们提出一个理论观点:对「香港人」身份的潜在威胁会提高选民的投票意愿。然而, 这种威胁在政治上显著与否, 取决于威权化的程度。我们以香港为案例测试此论点。香港在持续被纳入中华人民共和国的过程中, 正经历前所未有的威权化时代。我们认为, 尤其在威权化不断推进的情况下, 对「香港人」身份的威胁逐渐推动选民参与选举。在这政治转型时期, 香港人以投票意愿作为一种抵抗方式。我们在香港威权转向的不同过渡阶段进行了三项原创实验。我们发现,在香港出现威权分野之前, 在实验中促发身份威胁, 对选民的投票意愿并无影响。可是, 当更为极端的威权化形式开始出现时, 被分配到相同身份威胁实验组别的香港受访者, 显著地表达更高的投票意愿。这种动员效应在第三项实验中依然存在。我们的研究结果指向一种悖论: 在威权转型时期, 当公民感知到参与选举的机会正在缩小时, 其投票倾向反而会上升