9.3.1 Site-level management planning processes

Management planning processes and frameworks help practitioners make conservation decisions and ensure that the decisions made are based on logic. We provide two examples of organisations’ management planning procedures in Box 9.1.

The procedures used by different organisations to set priorities and create management plans vary according to differences in their organisational structure, objectives and culture. However, in our experience, effective management and decision-making systems include the following six features.

1. 1. They involve a range of people who, collectively, possess the expertise and knowledge needed to make well-informed decisions. They include site-based practitioners, their line managers and other advisers, scientists, experts and other stakeholders.

2. 2. They involve an explicit process that helps identify appropriate actions. A variety of frameworks are used in management planning to help aid decision-making. We describe two examples in Box 9.2. Other methods used to help practitioners identify solutions for complex environmental problems include structured decision-making (Gregory et al., Reference Gregory, Failing and Harstone2012), multi-criteria decision-making (Davis et al., Reference Davis, Stoms and Costello2003) and risk analysis (Pollard et al., Reference Pollard, Davies and Coley2008).

3. 3. Practitioners are involved in the decision-making and have ‘ownership’ of the final management actions. There are many examples of site management plans that have been produced by consultants and other people not involved in managing the site, which just sit on shelves gathering dust. Practitioners typically have a lot to do, and want to focus on managing their sites. Therefore, decision-making frameworks need to be as straightforward and unbureaucratic as possible, while still ensuring that decisions are the result of a logical process.

4. 4. Decisions should be underpinned by good scientific evidence. Evidence-based decision-making involves the integration of scientific research, expertise and local knowledge (Sutherland et al., Reference Sutherland, Pullin and Dolman2004; Walsh, Reference Walsh2015). Scientific evidence can be obtained from scientific studies, reviews, summaries of evidence, decision support tools or advice from scientific advisors. In cases where evidence and data are limited, all available knowledge, including expertise and opinion, can be used for initial management decisions. This should be accompanied with monitoring, evaluation and experimentation where possible to learn and generate the required evidence.

5. 5. The contents of the site management plan are checked and ‘signed off’ by colleagues who are involved in producing it. This ensures that standards are maintained, and that the contents of the management plan are sensible, feasible and consistent with regional, national and in some cases international priorities. It also helps to ensure ‘buy-in’ from relevant people in the rest of the organisation, some of whom might be involved in allocating resources for the site.

6. 6. They include a process for evaluating and reviewing whether the site is achieving its objectives and, if not, helps identifies what to change. This process is a key component of adaptive management (Runge, Reference Runge2011; Westgate et al., Reference Westgate, Likens and Lindenmayer2013; Murphy & Weiland, Reference Murphy and Weiland2014), which has been adopted in principle by many conservation organisations and agencies. However, research suggests that successful implementation of adaptive management remains elusive in many projects (Keith et al., Reference Keith, Martin and McDonald-Madden2011; McFadden et al., Reference McFadden, Hiller and Tyre2011).

9.3.2 Day-to-day decision-making

To implement actions agreed in a site’s management plan, practitioners still need to make frequent decisions about the details of the interventions. Consider this example about protecting the nests of ground-nesting waders in the UK. The scientific evidence shows that predator-exclusion fencing can be used to increase the nest survival and overall breeding success of ground-nesting waders (Sutherland et al., Reference Sutherland, Dicks and Ockendon2018) and the site’s management plan includes an action to install predator-exclusion fencing. However, practitioners still need to consider many minute details before installing the fencing, to address local circumstances and try to maximise the effectiveness of the fencing (Figure 9.1).

Figure 9.1 Decision-making at sites often involves taking account of a range of site-specific factors. Here, an ecological adviser ponders over details of the design of predator-exclusion fencing used to protect ground-nesting waders.

Photo by Malcolm Ausden.

When making decisions about the details of site management, a practitioner or their adviser will usually have a mental image of what they consider to be ideal habitat for a particular species or set of species. They will then compare the habitat present at a site with this ideal state and, based on a combination of past experience and other information, identify what they think needs to take place. This process will typically involve a visual assessment of the site, together with information from surveys and monitoring, the presence and population trends of key species, and their own and others’ experience of the impacts of management actions in the past and at other sites.

10.3.1 Case Study 1: Engaging with policy-makers – development of the Australian Environmental Offsets Policy

In 2012, Australian academic researchers formulated a calculation-based approach that set a new standard for determining environmental offset requirements. In collaboration with federal policy-makers in the Australian Department of the Environment, the calculation approach was developed into a tool for making fair and robust decisions about offsets. This became the Offsets Assessment Guide, which underpins the Australian Environmental Offsets Policy (2012) (see www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/12630bb4-2c10-4c8e-815f-2d7862bf87e7/files/offsets-policy_2.pdf) and remains the tool for determining offsets for significant impacts on more than 1800 threatened species and ecological communities in Australia (Gibbons et al., Reference Gibbons, Evans and Maron2015; Miller et al., Reference Miller, Trezise and Kraus2015). This collaborative effort between academics and policy-makers was enabled by long-term, effective relationships, significant government investment in research specifically to improve environmental decision-making,Footnote ¹ support of senior executive members of the department and a decade of scientific research led by the research team and many colleagues.

Environmental offsets are routinely used as a tool to compensate for unavoidable impacts on biodiversity as a result of development activities such as mining, urban development and agricultural expansion (Maron et al., Reference Maron, Ives and Kujala2016). In Australia, offsets have been used as conditions of development approval by state and federal governments since the early 2000s (Maron et al., Reference Maron, Bull and Evans2015; Evans, Reference Evans2016). Regulatory decisions under Australia’s federal environmental law was guided by a draft policy from 2007 onwards, but stakeholder dissatisfaction with this framework led to a policy review and development of a new draft environmental offsets policy in 2011 (Miller et al., Reference Miller, Trezise and Kraus2015).

Stakeholder consultation led by the federal Department of the Environment indicated broad stakeholder agreement with the new draft policy principles, but also a clear desire for a scientifically robust framework for estimating offset requirements (Miller et al., Reference Miller, Trezise and Kraus2015). The Department then approached academic researchers to develop an offset calculation framework that would enable impacts on threatened species and ecological communities to be adequately and effectively compensated, give effect to the policy principles and be accessible and easy-to-use for all stakeholders (Miller et al., Reference Miller, Trezise and Kraus2015).

The development of the Offsets Assessment Guide was highly collaborative and iterative. Each major revision of the calculation framework produced by the academic researchers was tested by federal government operations staff to ensure ease of use, applicability to a range of decision contexts and adherence to the policy principles. This process of co-design enabled mutual learning and fostered a shared understanding of the different constraints and incentives that policy-makers and academic researchers work under. There was intense negotiation, compromise and robust debate. The researchers had to operate within a much shorter timeframe than is normally permitted in academia and learned to appreciate the government decision processes and ministerial requirements. The Department of the Environment recognised the need for the collaboration to result in academic publications for the researchers, and publication of work in the academic literature was considered a priority (Miller et al., Reference Miller, Trezise and Kraus2015).

The research outcomes have now shaped environmental offsetting around the world (IUCN, 2016; Maseyk et al., Reference Maseyk, Barea and Stephens2016; Cowie et al., Reference Cowie, Orr and Castillo Sanchez2018). The researchers continue to work with governments, industry, local communities and international convening bodies to boost public and policy-maker capacity to engage with environmental offsets. The final independent report to the Australian Government on the $154 M National Environmental Research Program highlighted this work as one of the Program’s most important impacts (Spencer et al., Reference Spencer, McVay and Sheridan2014):

10.3.2 Case Study 2: Engaging local communities – co-existence with large carnivores in Costa Rica

Amit and Jacobson (Reference Amit and Jacobson2018) present an example of community engagement in a project designed to facilitate co-existence between large carnivores (jaguars and pumas) and people in Costa Rica. Through the use of a group decision-making technique based on the Delphi process (see Mukherjee et al., Reference Mukherjee, Hugé and Sutherland2015), they engaged 133 members of seven communities, as well as 25 multi-disciplinary experts from government, NGOs and academic science. Four decision-making rounds were undertaken.

• Round one: community representatives were identified by using a database of ranches with the potential for big cat attacks on livestock. After selecting two ranchers and two community leaders from each of seven ‘attack hotspots’, further participants were identified in consultation with them. At a workshop held at the University of Costa Rica, these local representatives were used to define the project agenda, to identify the major problems, and to brainstorm potential solutions. Draft solutions to incentivise co-existence were developed.

• Rounds two and three: the draft incentives were reviewed through online questionnaires sent to a panel of multi-disciplinary experts (NGOs, academics, government). The draft list of incentives was iteratively developed based on the opinions of these experts.

• Round four: a workshop was held with the communities in each of the seven ‘attack hotspots’. They had an average duration of three hours and were conducted by five facilitators at venues such as schools and community halls. Through anonymous voting, and a satisfaction questionnaire, the study team were able to test for consensus, and the willingness of participants to pilot particular incentives.

Detailed results and other methodological information are presented in the original paper (Amit & Jacobson, Reference Amit and Jacobson2018). The authors claim that their structured, bottom-up communication process stimulated social learning in a trusting, transparent, collaborative environment. Although one community declined to take part in future research, citing a lack of information provided in the process, the study team argued that the list of incentives for co-existence was able to integrate issues of governance, equity and social norms. As a result, support for the incentives, and for working in a transdisciplinary way, was strengthened in many of the communities.

10.3.3 Case Study 3: Engagement of multiple stakeholders and decision-makers at a regional level – the Sea Change – Tai Timu Tai Pari marine spatial planning process

In 2000 the Hauraki Gulf Marine Park (HGMP) was established to recognise the national significance of the Hauraki Gulf/Tīkapa Moana (also known as Te Moananui-ā-Toi) in New Zealand. While a number of management plans were developed over the years to mitigate key threats in the HGMP, they were never implemented. This lack of implementation was due to a lack of stakeholder involvement, weak governance and ineffective management (Hauraki Gulf Forum, 2011, 2014).

In response, Sea Change – Tai Timu Tai Pari was developed in 2013 as a new marine conservation and spatial planning process for the region. In contrast to previous planning efforts, Sea Change – Tai Timu Tai Pari was created as a collaborative, stakeholder-led, co-governance process to design, develop and action a new plan for the HGMP. A Stakeholder Working Group and a number of issues-based roundtables were established to navigate the co-development of the plan in consultation with mana whenua iwi and hapū (indigenous Māori tribes and sub-tribes), technical experts, local communities and stakeholders across a range of issues and priorities. This work was supported and assisted by five key partner agencies, including the Hauraki Gulf Forum, Waikato Regional Council, Auckland Council, the Ministry of Primary Industries and the Department of Conservation. In addition, conservation scientists were invited to collaborate with Sea Change – Tai Timu Tai Pari to develop participatory tools and approaches to enhance public and stakeholder engagement, while incorporating local knowledge and diverse values, views and priorities into the planning process (Jarvis et al., Reference Jarvis, Bollard Breen and Krägeloh2015b, Reference Jarvis, Bollard Breen and Krägeloh2016; Jarvis, Reference Jarvis2016). The final plan was released in April 2017 (Sea Change – Tai Timu Tai Pari, 2017).

Effective engagement and collaboration was seen as critical for the Sea Change – Tai Timu Tai Pari process and the development of the plan. This highly collaborative approach required negotiation, perseverance and sacrifice, in addition to the vision and commitment offered by those involved. While some work is already underway, the next step of the plan will be broad implementation across all goals and key principles. Strong and effective co-governance will be key to continuing engagement and effective implementation. There are high hopes that mana whenua iwi and hapū, communities, agencies and government will continue to work together to protect and conserve the future of the HGMP, support healthy and prosperous communities and safeguard this precious natural resource.

10.3.4 Case Study 4: Engagement of researchers, practitioners and NGOs at a global level – developing a code of conduct for marine conservation

As marine conservation gathers pace around the globe to achieve our conservation targets and the Sustainable Development Goals, there is a risk that these efforts fail to engage stakeholders and local people effectively. As a result, some actions taken may undermine the rights, dignity and freedoms of local people by not considering their needs or involving them in conservation processes. In response, a code of conduct (COC) was developed to provide a social baseline for how marine conservation should be undertaken, while raising the profile of effective engagement practices and the need for community and stakeholder involvement (Bennett et al., 2017a).

The COC was developed to promote fair governance and decision-making, support social justice and promote transparency and accountability in our marine conservation actions. This includes principles of human rights, indigenous rights and food security, as well as ensuring that marine conservation is carried out in a fair, inclusive way that supports local people. The COC has the potential to have wide-ranging impacts in the way scientists and practitioners undertake marine conservation to ensure it is socially just and environmentally effective.

The lead authors of the proposed code of conduct undertook an initial scoping review and prepared an initial list of principles for discussion with the broader marine conservation community (Bennett et al., 2017a). Next, they convened a meeting with a diverse group of leading experts in marine conservation at the IUCN 2016 World Conservation Congress in Hawaii to debate what is considered acceptable and unacceptable in marine conservation with researchers and practitioners from universities, non-profit organisations and government agencies from around the world. The final list of principles was agreed after several rounds of iterations with the authors and workshop participants, incorporating a thorough review of peer-reviewed literature, conservation policies and procedures and foundational policy documents.

The COC (Bennett et al., 2017a) was the result of this collaborative process and was communicated in a wide variety of formats to different media around the world, presented to policy-makers and discussed at high-level meetings, such as the United Nations Ocean Conference in June 2017. As a result, the COC has already been adopted as guiding principles for the Global Environment Facility Blue Carbon Project (GEF, 2017), with partners and beneficiaries that include the United Nations, 40 NGOs and a number of academic institutions, practitioners and members of the scientific community. The objective is for all Blue Carbon Projects to be developed following the COC by 2020. Engagement and discussion around the application of COC more broadly is ongoing. The goal is to establish the COC as a clearly articulated and comprehensive set of social standards to guide marine conservation actions at multiple scales and ensure that marine conservation goals are met through effective engagement, fair decision-making, accountability and inclusive participatory processes.

1. Know who you need to talk to

This important theme of inclusivity is commonplace in the literature (see Table 10.1). All relevant decision-makers need to be engaged with, or vital knowledge may be missed or unnecessary conflicts created (e.g. de Vente et al., Reference de Vente, Reed and Stringer2016; Enquist et al., Reference Enquist, Jackson and Garfin2017; Lazos-Chaveros et al., Reference Lazos-Chavero, Zinda and Bennett-Curry2016; Reed et al., Reference Reed, Vella and Challies2017). The composition of key decision-makers will always vary with context and may depend on the specific impact that is sought, but robust stakeholder analyses should be conducted before commencement of work (Reed et al., Reference Reed, Graves and Dandy2009; de Vente et al., Reference de Vente, Reed and Stringer2016). If time or resources are short, then decision-makers may be classified by the extent to which they are affected by a conservation issue (Reed et al., Reference Reed, Graves and Dandy2009), as Amit and Jacobson (Reference Amit and Jacobson2018) did by identifying ‘predator attack hotspots’.

Once decision-makers are identified and engaged with, scientists should seek to differentiate between different groups and understand relationships between them. Part of this process can be an attempt to understand their workflows, their values and culture and even the constraints under which they work. Once groups have been differentiated, then different styles of engagement and conflict management might be needed to work with each (Blicharska & Grandin, Reference Blicharska and Grandin2015). Furthermore, an appreciation and understanding of political, social and cultural context is always useful (Sterling et al., Reference Sterling, Betley and Sigouin2017).

2. Engage early, with clearly defined aims

Decision-maker engagement must have a clear purpose in order for all participants to work together towards a clear goal and outcome (Enquist et al., Reference Enquist, Jackson and Garfin2017). Involving decision-makers at an early stage of a project may provide ownership of a project to local communities, building support, legitimacy, and trust, as well as leading to the production of relevant, ‘use-inspired’, or ‘actionable’ knowledge (Wall et al., Reference Wall, McNie and Garfin2017). The need for local community-led engagement was illustrated by the examples of human-carnivore co-existence in Costa Rica (Amit & Jacobson, Reference Amit and Jacobson2018), marine conservation in New Zealand (Jarvis, Reference Jarvis2015; Jarvis et al., Reference Jarvis, Borrelle and Bollard Breen2015) and the biodiversity offsetting project stimulated by the Australian Department of the Environment (Miller et al., Reference Miller, Trezise and Kraus2015).

3. Decision-makers should find it easy to engage

Participation for all decision-makers must be easy (de Vente et al., Reference de Vente, Reed and Stringer2016). For example, meetings should be held in a convenient place for all and project timescales should consider the busy and varied workflows of all decision-makers involved, so as not to disincentivise engagement. Language should also be geared towards participants, and thus a common language and understanding should be developed wherever possible (Amano et al., Reference Amano, González-Varo and Sutherland2016; de Vente et al., Reference de Vente, Reed and Stringer2016). While we do not necessarily condone offering financial incentives for attendance, researchers could at least consider what the relative advantage of engagement is for decision-makers (what do different decision-makers gain from being part of the process?) and cover costs at the very least (particularly where poorer communities are being involved).

4. Embrace and include multiple knowledge(s), perspectives and worldviews

Engagement with decision-makers must be meaningful, and the perspectives and opinions of all stakeholders must be genuinely valued throughout the process (see all studies in Table 10.1). Participation should not merely be tokenistic. The first step towards this is humility on the part of researchers, which fosters a genuine sense to learn from others, while also accepting and appreciating that science is just one input into policy and practical processes. In their study of co-management in South African freshwater ecosystems, Roux et al. (Reference Roux, Nel and Cundill2017) warn against perceived scientific authority, and an attitude that bemoans some decisions made by policy-makers and other stakeholders as irrational if they are not ‘evidence-based’. The second step is to find ways of integrating multiple knowledge types into a project, including lay and indigenous knowledges, and local experiential knowledges, and ultimately fostering respect and understanding across different values and motivations (Sterling et al., Reference Sterling, Betley and Sigouin2017). The final step is to be able to reflect on your own values and motivations as a conservationist and be prepared to learn from those held by others (Bodin, Reference Bodin2017).

If these steps are followed, it is more likely that a truly collaborative spirit of cooperation will be achieved, which will help to build common understanding of an issue. This will not always mean that everyone agrees, but it will still be possible for all participants to understand each other’s point of view. Such a collaborative spirit has been shown to help a range of conservation projects, including in the case studies highlighted above.

5. Think hard about power

As researchers, we must do more than simply speak truth to the most obvious powers-that-be (Chambers, Reference Chambers1997); rather, we should seek to understand how communities work as thoroughly as possible, something that may require long-term engagement (e.g. using ethnography). Lazos-Chavero et al. (Reference Lazos-Chavero, Zinda and Bennett-Curry2016) found that paying attention to gender, generational and power disparities in a given region was essential to the success of tropical reforestation schemes. Furthermore, Kleiber et al. (Reference Kleiber, Harris and Vincent2015) showed that including women in the management of fisheries is essential for conservation success because a significant proportion of fishers are women (something that had often been ignored in previous studies). Thus, ensuring that all stakeholders have equal decision-making power is important for effective engagement. This also includes the balance of power between the stakeholders and the researchers themselves.

6. Build mutual trust

This theme is just about universally accepted in the literature and needs little explanation (see Table 10.1). Without mutual trust, transparency and respect, then engagement exercises with decision-makers are doomed to failure. Although Lacey et al. (Reference Lacey, Howden and Cvitanovic2018) warn against too much trust (e.g. because this could lead to facts being accepted on ‘blind faith’), it is logical to expect that relationships built on trust will yield better results. This is because participants will feel valued and able to challenge the opinion of others. Good practices for building trust include respecting participant confidentiality, following through on promises and committing to long-term engagement if it has been offered.

7. Good facilitation is key

Engagement processes need to have good facilitators (de Vente et al., Reference de Vente, Reed and Stringer2016). As illustrated by guides on how to conduct participatory methods, such as focus groups (Nyumba et al., Reference Nyumba, Wilson and Derrick2018), the facilitator plays a key role in managing group dynamics, encouraging stakeholder input and building trust. A good facilitator will be aware of potential sensitivities within the group (Gibbons et al., Reference Gibbons, Zammit and Youngentob2008) and be able to skilfully avoid and manage conflict, which is so important for a healthy engagement process (Amit & Jacobson, Reference Amit and Jacobson2018; Chapter 14). In controversial cases in particular, which are not unusual when dealing with the complex problem of biodiversity loss, the potential for conflict is more pronounced.

8. Learn new skills for good engagement

Good engagement and facilitation is helped if the individual is a good communicator. As individuals, it will become increasingly important to develop a range of different skills (as per Jackson et al., Reference Jackson, Garfin and Enquist2017) and be able to communicate differently with different people. In doing so, it is important to recognise that conservation can greatly benefit from better use of qualitative methods that improve communication, enhance engagement and give voice to others (Mukherjee et al., Reference Mukherjee, Zabala and Hugé2018). However, it may not be possible for individuals to learn all the different skills key for good engagement themselves. Therefore the development of truly inter- and trans-disciplinary teams could be one approach to bring all the necessary tools and skills together and co-design research that properly integrates the natural and social sciences (Bennett et al., 2017b, 2017c) while engaging with stakeholders from the outset and throughout conservation processes (Reed et al., Reference Reed, Vella and Challies2017). Where scientists feel unable to facilitate engagement processes effectively, much of the literature suggests using knowledge brokers (alternatively called boundary spanners or bridging agents; Cvitanovic et al., Reference Cvitanovic, Hobday and van Kerkhoff2015; de Vente et al., Reference de Vente, Reed and Stringer2016; Roux et al., Reference Roux, Nel and Cundill2017; Bednarek et al. Reference Bednarek, Wyborn and Cvitanovic2018). These individuals have the skills to bridge the gap between varying backgrounds, cultures, interests and languages.

9. You don’t have to reinvent the wheel – consider making use of existing spaces and opportunities

In conservation, there are several good schemes that encourage scientists to engage better with decision-makers across research, policy and practice (see Elliott et al., Reference Elliott, Ryan and Wyborn2018 for a global database of 650 conservation capacity initiatives). Such schemes have been developed to reflect requirements for the foundational skills necessary for good engagement while also providing existing opportunities for conservationists to develop their own capacity for effective communication, interpersonal interaction and boundary-crossing. By making use of such schemes, conservation scientists can develop their engagement skills while also being able to better adapt to the changing needs of conservation.

An additional point worthy of consideration is whether conservation researchers make the most of existing informal spaces of engagement to harness the views of decision-makers. Chilvers et al. (Reference Chilvers, Pallett and Hargreaves2017) criticise engagement processes for usually being established on the terms of researchers. In other words, groups of stakeholders are assembled to talk about an issue that is framed and defined by researchers or policy-makers, such as through public forums (see Chilvers & Kearnes, Reference Chilvers and Kearnes2016). Very rarely do we seek to ‘listen in’ on existing spaces of public participation (e.g. in the village hall, in the pub, on social media) to see what people are concerned about. Could the same criticism be levelled at conservation engagement exercises? Do we seek to assemble groups of decision-makers to discuss conservation issues that we have already framed, rather than asking, for example, local communities to devise the questions of interest (see tip 4)? We suggest that it is important to consider these questions in order that engagement exercises are led by communities, rather than done to them.

10. Don’t give up!

The need for long-term engagement is commonly highlighted in the literature (see Table 10.1). One important aspect to take from our recommendations is that they will not always yield immediate, tangible rewards, but this should not be the sole aim of practising good engagement. Rather, ongoing, long-term engagement can lead to a change in the overall policy framing of problems and solutions (Rose et al., Reference Rose, Mukherjee and Simmons2017), something which can occur diffusely over long timescales (Owens, Reference Owens2015). Reed et al. (Reference Reed, Vella and Challies2017) argue that engagement in controversial issues, where people hold deep core values, will need to be more long term (de Vente, Reference de Vente, Reed and Stringer2016; Roux et al., Reference Roux, Nel and Cundill2017). It can take some time to build the trust and confidence for stakeholders to contribute, and continued engagement after implementation is usually required for conservation projects (Lazos-Chavero et al., Reference Lazos-Chavero, Zinda and Bennett-Curry2016). So it is vital not to give up; as Amit and Jacobson (Reference Amit and Jacobson2018) argue, ‘participatory decision-making has an inherent phase of struggle and frustration’, which is perfectly normal. Sterling et al. (Reference Sterling, Betley and Sigouin2017) further describe knowledge co-production as a ‘slow’ process because it requires long-term committed engagement from all sides.

However, it is also important to note that flexibility of process is also key (Sterling et al., Reference Sterling, Betley and Sigouin2017). When inviting decision-makers to contribute to a project, the outcome might be different to the one that the researcher envisaged. Indeed, because you are incorporating multiple values and perspectives into decision-making, the unexpected may be the norm. Most importantly, expect the unexpected and don’t give up!

We acknowledge that it is not easy for conservation scientists to initiate and manage collaborative research projects, particularly those that work with a variety of stakeholder groups outside of academia. There are certainly challenges in achieving the new kind of science that Keeler et al. (Reference Keeler, Chaplin-Kramer and Guerry2017) envisaged (or in embracing the ‘post-normal’ reality, see Colloff et al., Reference Colloff, Lavorel and van Kerkhoff2017; Rose, Reference Rose2018), which would be more inclusive of people beyond academia. This includes practical difficulties (e.g. time, money) of engaging decision-makers (Sutherland et al., Reference Sutherland, Shackelford and Rose2017), as well as the challenge for conservation scientists of developing the skills needed to engage with people, a task for which many of us are not traditionally trained (Jackson et al., Reference Jackson, Garfin and Enquist2017). Furthermore, being actively involved with decision-makers might not be something that appeals to individual conservation scientists. Although the boundaries between science, policy and practice are fluid (Rose, Reference Rose2014b; Toomey et al., Reference Toomey, Knight and Barlow2016), scientists sometimes worry about moving beyond their comfort zone. Yet, if there is a scientific discipline in which advocacy is easier to do, then it should be mission-driven conservation biology (Soulé, Reference Soulé1985; Rose et al., Reference Rose, Sutherland and Amano2018b).

Ultimately, achieving effective engagement and conservation impact may mean changing the way conservationists work, including those housed in universities and research institutions. One significant challenge is for academic conservation scientists to find the time, motivation and support to engage decision-makers (Chapin, Reference Chapin2017; Keeler et al., Reference Keeler, Chaplin-Kramer and Guerry2017; Littell et al., Reference Littell, Terrando and Morelli2017). Often, academics are not rewarded adequately for producing tangible impacts (Jarvis et al., Reference Jarvis, Borrelle and Bollard Breen2015; Tyler, Reference Tyler2017), and activities focused on delivering these impacts are still widely sidelined in favour of career-enhancing academic publication. However, there is no real reason why impact cannot be better incentivised, and new opportunities developed to explore the different ways we can better navigate science, policy and practice. Why, for example, cannot academic departments have dedicated policy teams to highlight policy demand and to foster collaboration with decision-makers? A new kind of conservation science could certainly be imagined, which would reward outreach and incentivise inter-, multi- and trans-disciplinary collaborative work. Where we are unable to invest the time to engage with decision-makers ourselves, we could make much better use of knowledge brokers or boundary spanners (Bednarek et al., Reference Bednarek, Wyborn and Cvitanovic2018).

11.3.1 Probabilistic, qualified evidence

In the introductory example above, the evidence for the effectiveness of a management intervention was measured as a probability. In terms of providing evidence, this is a routine way in which a scientist would express their recommendation. However, for implementing management, this can be problematic. For instance, telling a manager that there is a 70% chance that the intervention will work is only partly addressing the question of the manager, namely should they undertake the action or not? How is a manager to know whether their particular circumstances are likely to lead to them being in the 70% of cases in which the intervention works or in the 30% in which it fails?

In this context, the meaning of probabilities conveyed by scientists may not always be fully clear. Consider an everyday example. We might be told by a weather forecaster that there is a 50% chance of rain today. However, the meaning of that probability is not typically explained. Here are four interpretations.

1. (i) It will either rain everywhere or nowhere: it could be one or other of these outcomes, for example, because it is not possible to predict the precise location of a weather system.

2. (ii) It will rain for 50% of the time during the forecast period: for example, there are patchy rain clouds that are continually moving.

3. (iii) It will rain in 50% of places: for example, there are rain clouds cover 50% of the area that do not move.

4. (iv) The forecaster is unable to tell us whether it will rain or not and is telling you to flip a coin.

The technical interpretation of a probability in a weather forecast is that this probability represents the fraction of times a given outcome (e.g. raining within a defined set of areas) occurs in a set of stochastic realisations. This definition, interestingly, can incorporate all four of the above interpretations. Nevertheless, the probability quoted is a form of knowledge uncertainty that has a very specific meaning: it is a measure of model uncertainty/variance.

This highlights a second aspect of scientific evidence that is problematic from the perspective of management, namely that scientific evidence is usually qualified. The statement ‘there is a 50% chance of rain’ from a scientific perspective should also be qualified by the statement ‘across a set of simulations, given the assumption that the model is correct’. If the model is wrong then the prediction could be greatly different.

The task of a manager is to convert such evidence into action (i.e. the binary outcome of whether to act or not). As noted in the introduction, the decision then involves costs and benefits, defined in the widest sense and including values. To continue the hypothetical example, carrying an umbrella is low cost and high benefit, so a 50% chance of rain would render this a good strategy. On the other hand, a manager who is spraying a pesticide requires good conditions, and a 50% chance of rain would potentially carry an unacceptable risk that this costly action (in terms of fuel, time and chemicals) would fail.

11.3.2 General versus situational outcomes

The aim of science is typically to find answers that are as general and robust as possible. A scientist faced with evaluating the effectiveness of a management intervention will attempt to find whether there is evidence of its effectiveness, on average, and then probably focus on understanding the mechanisms that drive it. In contrast, a manager is faced with the task of managing a given site over a defined time period. There is a potential conflict between these perspectives, as the scientific perspective typically averages over variation arising from site-specific variations, whereas this is precisely the variation that a manager is focused on. For a scientist, the local variation at a specific site is essentially nuisance variance.

Although perhaps something of a caricature, there is undoubtedly a real problem in addressing these differences in perspectives. The situation is complicated by the difference in success measures for scientists and managers: scientists prove success by presenting results that are of interest to a wide range of others and that do not focus on specific instances (e.g. in scientific papers); managers measure success based on the state of their site. This difference in perspectives is reflected in the contrasting ways that scientists and managers treat uncertainty. From the science perspective the variation around the mean is a quantity that is to be minimised where possible; in contrast, a manager needs to know where their site sits with respect to this variation, and whether local circumstances render the overall average outcome pattern inapplicable.

11.4.1 Ignoring uncertainty should not be an option

One of the most important causes of uncertainty is lack of information. This is particularly an issue when information is lacking on rare and difficult-to-observe species, meaning that clade-wide conservation assessments are potentially compromised. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) is an important organisation that collates data on the conservation status of species from a wide range of taxa into a set of threat states (Mace & Lande, Reference Mace and Lande1991). This extensive and important exercise informs conservation strategies in a range of contexts (Rodrigues et al., Reference Rodrigues, Pilgrim and Lamoreux2006). The basis for the assessment is a five-point scale of threat status for wild extant species. Species are classified as Least Concern (LC), Near Threatened (NT), Vulnerable (VU), Endangered (EN) or Critically Endangered (CE). Extinct in the Wild and Extinct are categories of extinction beyond these five points, representing species loss.

The amount of data required to apply these criteria varies between taxa. In some cases the amount of information required is quite low. For example, the Nechisar nightjar (Camprimulgus solala) is classified as VU despite being known from only a single wing and a single sighting. On the other hand, for some groups (e.g. mammals and amphibians) the data requirements for the assignment of conservation status are more exacting. Those species for which sufficient information is not available are assigned a status termed Data Deficient (DD). The number of DD mammal species is a considerable fraction of the group (483 of 4186 species; i.e. >10%) of mammals studied by Jetz and Freckleton (Reference Jetz and Freckleton2015).

Denoting species as DD is, effectively, a way of dealing with uncertainty. It is essentially the same as ignoring missing data in an analysis. This way of dealing with data uncertainty is, however, fraught with pitfalls, and a large literature exists on dealing with missing data and associated uncertainty (Nakagawa & Freckleton, Reference Nakagawa and Freckleton2008). It is well understood that non-randomness in the pattern of ‘missingness’ can yield highly misleading analyses.

In the case of conservation assessments, the concern with DD mammal species is that the factors that drive data deficiency are closely related to those that determine extinction threat. For instance, if species are difficult to observe it is likely to be because they only occur at low density in remote locations, or population trends are unknown because they are so rare. It is easy to see that this set of criteria could lead to species being ignored from conservation assessments even though they are threatened.

Jetz and Freckleton (Reference Jetz and Freckleton2015) tested this hypothesis by applying a framework for phylo-spatial modelling of IUCN threats, then using this to predict the probability that DD species are threatened. Species that are DD are predicted to have much higher threat probabilities than those that have been assessed already (Figure 11.1). The fraction of threatened mammal species is therefore underestimated by the current system of assessment.

Figure 11.1 The importance of dealing with uncertainty in conservation assessments. We used models to generate threat probabilities for mammals. (a) These probabilities do an effective job of distinguishing species that are Least Concern (green bars) from those that are Critically Endangered (orange bars); (b) our models were used to predict threat probabilities for species that were Data Deficient (DD) (pink bars) compared to species that were assessed (grey bars) (i.e. to reduce uncertainty in assessment).

Interestingly, the same is not true of birds (Lee & Jetz, Reference Lee and Jetz2011), as a much smaller fraction of them are considered DD because a lower threshold of information is required to assess threat status. Thus, the recent taxonomic explosion that has led to the creation of 1000 new species of birds (del Hoyo et al., Reference del Hoyo, Collar and Christie2014, Reference del Hoyo, Collar and Christie2016) has not resulted in 1000 species being assigned to the DD category.

This example illustrates an important point about uncertainty that is relevant to conservation and management. Ignoring uncertainty by simply excluding cases where data are missing runs the risk of introducing bias and so, in general, should be addressed if at all possible (Millner-Gulland & Shea, Reference Millner-Gulland and Shea2017). In the introduction I noted that the likelihood of implementing an action is low, irrespective of its actual effectiveness, when there is great uncertainty associated with its effectiveness (i.e. the parameter p is low). In this example, data-deficiency data result in no action being taken (p is low because of uncertainty), although the evidence (Figure 11.1) is that the intervention (assigning status of ‘threatened’) is justified with high probability.

11.4.2 Providing more data/evidence

The preceding example highlights that, where possible, additional data should be used to plug gaps in knowledge. One of the ways that scientists tend to qualify conclusions (see Section 11.3.1) is to say that we cannot be confident because more data are required. As argued by Millner-Gulland and Shea (Reference Millner-Gulland and Shea2017), this can prevent effective management-relevant advice being given.

The example from Jetz and Freckleton (Reference Jetz and Freckleton2015) (see also Safi & Pettorelli, Reference Safi and Pettorelli2010; Bland et al., Reference Bland, Orme and Bielby2015) addressed this qualification by extracting as much information as possible out of the existing data using advanced statistical methods. There are a large range of techniques that have been used to infer missing data and it is not possible to review them here, except to point out that suitable methods have been developed (Nakagawa & Freckleton, Reference Nakagawa and Freckleton2008), or that the problem can be dealt with using flexible statistical frameworks, such as Bayesian modelling (Gelman et al., Reference Gelman, Carlin and Stern1995). Another recent application used models to infer the maximal population growth rate of several shark species for which this demographic rate has not been otherwise estimated (e.g. Pardo et al., Reference Pardo, Cooper and Reynolds2018).

In many cases, however, the bottom line is that sufficient data do not exist and there is no option but to collect more. Data are time-consuming and expensive to collect. Engaging in a programme of data collection will delay implementation and use up resources that could be targeted at on-the-ground management. Frequently there will not be resources available for data collection and hence the knowledge gap is never plugged.

On the assumption that more information could be obtained, a key question arises: will collecting more information improve management decisions (Maxwell et al., Reference Maxwell, Rhodes and Runge2015)? Canessa et al. (Reference Canessa, Guillera-Arroita and Lahoz-Monfort2015) highlight a measure called the ‘Value of Information’ (VoI). This measure is the difference in outcome between the expected management action based only on whatever prior information was available, and action taken with new information provided (Yokota & Thompson, Reference Yokota and Thompson2004; Canessa et al., Reference Canessa, Guillera-Arroita and Lahoz-Monfort2015). They provide an example that is typical of many in conservation or land management. Imagine that a species of conservation concern occurs in one location within a protected area. The aim of conservation is to maximise the size of the population in the area over a specified time period. In order to meet this aim, one strategy could be to create a new population. However, imagine further that there is a chance that a disease could be present that would limit the effectiveness of the reintroduction. The VoI in this case reflects the change in estimated effectiveness that would be achieved by testing for the presence of disease before starting the reintroduction programme. Thus, a test might be performed and return a positive or negative result. Given a prior estimate of the prevalence of the disease, the difference between initial and updated estimates can be calculated using Bayesian updating. These differences then measure the VoI provided by conducting testing. This represents the possible improvement in decision-making through the removal of uncertainty.

11.4.3 Addressing uncertainty through benchmarking

A manager might apply a conservation intervention which, if the outcome is positive, leads to a question of whether the intervention should be used again, or even recommended to another manager. Informal communication of outcomes of this sort are not unusual in land management (Henrich, Reference Henrich2001).

From a scientific perspective, this is not an acceptable way of proceeding unless appropriate controls and experimental design are used in the evaluation of the method. Furthermore, the intervention would ideally be evaluated at more than a single site. This reflects, of course, the tension between the situational and general perspectives of practitioners and scientists. There are pitfalls in both views. There is of course, no guarantee that if management appears to work at one site that it is not simply due to natural variation. Figure 11.2a gives an example of this from an agricultural case study. At one site a specific intervention was used and appeared to be successful. However, compared with the outcome on a set of farms that did not use the technique, there is no obviously large effect. On the other hand, if we are too picky about standards of evidence or data then there is a real danger that useful information will be discarded.

Figure 11.2 Uncertainty and benchmarking in weed control. (a,b) Predicted responses of populations of the weed Alopecurus myosuroides to rotational management. The initial frequency of weeds at each sowing density was the same in each case (dashed blue line). Each grey line represents a matrix generated from a different field following two forms of management. (a) What would have been the density (0 = zero, L = low, M = medium, H = high and VH = very high) of an average field had it been planted with spring barley. This is compared with (b) the predicted response from maintaining winter wheat. The red line in (a) represents a single field that was managed with variable sowing densities. Figures (c–e) compare the observed effect of management with difference sources of background variation to disentangle the uncertainty in management. We generated models for each field: 22 in winter wheat and 12 rotated from winter wheat to spring barley, and their results are presented in rank order. The effect range is the estimate of the random effect for each field, location or rotation.

Developments such as evidence-based conservation promote the collation of evidence on the effectiveness of management (Sutherland, Reference Sutherland2003; Sutherland et al., Reference Sutherland, Pullin and Dolman2004; see also Chapter 4). The idea here is twofold. First, if the same management has been used in different places then, even if individual interventions do not meet the criteria of a randomised trial (as in Figure 11.2a), the collective body of evidence might be useful. Resources such as www.conservationevidence.com allow this work to be synthesised. Second, using systematic review approaches, it is possible to synthesise this information to provide answers to management problems (Pullin & Stewart, Reference Pullin and Stewart2006; see also Chapter 7).

In the example shown in Figure 11.2a, a single manager implemented one management intervention. On its own this is not enough to determine effectiveness. However, if many people implement the same management then it may be possible to use non-intervention cases as a benchmark and compare the difference with those places where interventions were made. For example, Figures 11.2a and 11.2b show the distribution of weed population sizes in fields subject to intervention (Figure 11.2a) compared with those in which no intervention was made (Figure 11.2b). There is an apparent difference in outcome, but clearly with a high degree of variance. Modelling the data (Figure 11.2c–11.2e) reveals that, although there is an effect of the intervention (Figure 11.2e), there is also a high degree of variance resulting from the initial state (Figure 11.2c) or from the variation in population dynamics from field to field (Figure 11.2d). Consequently, the effect of management, although measurable (Figure 11.2e), is relatively small compared with the intrinsic variability of this system. In this example, the results in Figure 11.2c–e confirm the expectation that the specific management intervention should work, but they also confirm anecdotal local reports that the effectiveness of this approach is patchy, and suggest that frequently the positive effects observed may be attributable to other factors (the large negative effect sizes in Figure 11.2c and d).

Benchmarking of this sort could be extremely valuable in aiding management decisions (Freckleton et al., Reference Freckleton, Hicks and Comont2018). Technological advances, such as widespread instrumentation of agricultural machinery, UAS technology (Paneque-Gálvez et al., Reference Paneque-Gálvez, McCall and Napoletano2014; Lambert et al., Reference Lambert, Hicks and Childs2018) and remote sensing (Kerr & Ostrovsky, Reference Kerr and Ostrovsky2003; Turner et al., Reference Turner, Spector and Gardiner2003) offer the possibility of widescale automated data collection at massive scales. When combined with ecological models, such data could provide a hitherto impossible resource for reducing uncertainty in predicting future management outcomes.

12.1.1 Mainstreaming natural capital: the drivers of change

Mainstreaming natural capital involves bringing nature’s stock and flows of goods and services into decision-making. A key element of this is to provide decision-makers with an understanding of the factors that drive change in natural capital resource use. While analyses generally examine the advantage of moving from current to alternative resource use, they commonly fail to investigate how the move between these two states is to be effected. For example, it is relatively easy to demonstrate that a move from current intensive agricultural production practices to lower-input systems will deliver improvements in water quality, greenhouse gas emissions, wildlife habitat and greenspace access. These advantages are often rigorously demonstrated without guidance as to how such change should be delivered, leaving the decision-maker facing uncertainty regarding how best to act. Such natural capital analyses alone are of little practical value as they do not acknowledge that land-use change is driven by a wide array of socio-economic/market, policy and environmental forces. Understanding the drivers of change, and the consequences brought about by policy decisions, is one of the major reasons for bringing economists into decision-making.

12.1.2 Natural capital, ecosystem services, goods and values

When making policy decisions regarding the natural environment it is important to understand the linkages between the various forms of natural capital, the ecosystem services they provide and their transformation into valued goods and services (Figure 12.1). In the upper left of Figure 12.1 we have the raw inputs to this system: energy (from the sun) and matter (from the earth). Together these yield stocks of physical natural capital and natural processes. Combining these stocks and processes provides the myriad ecosystem service flows provided by the natural environment. However, as shown in the third column, goods are more typically obtained by combining ecosystem service flows with other human-derived forms of capital, such as labour, machinery and technology. Here the term ‘goods’ refers to anything which alters human well-being, ranging from tangible products like timber or food to non-tangibles, such as the positive emotions associated with knowing that biodiversity is being conserved. Similarly, while some of these goods are provided through markets and consequently have prices, others are provided outside markets and lack prices. Nonetheless, all are, by definition, of value.

Figure 12.1 Decision-making and the environment: from natural capital to decisions. The yellow arrows illustrate the multiple effects typical of a change in natural capital, in this case those arising from an investment to establish woodland on a currently farmed area.

Because natural capital and ecosystem services can be used to generate a wide variety of goods, it is useful to understand whether those resources could be used in better ways. In effect, we need some measure of the value of a set of goods (Figure 12.1). Many of the goods that contribute to human well-being can be assessed in economic values, and changes in these can be analysed in terms of the resultant benefits and costs. However, a few well-being–bearing goods cannot be robustly assessed in terms of economic value and therefore other, ideally quantitative, measures have to be incorporated into decisions.

In their raw, unused state, natural capital resources have high usefulness and can be employed to generate a wide range of goods, often simultaneously. However, this means that changes to the use of natural capital often generate multiple consequences. The environment is an interconnected system; changing its use in one way can have multiple effects, many of which might not have been anticipated by the decision-maker who prompted that original change (Figure 12.1). To illustrate, afforestation of farmland will typically reduce the amount of food produced. If the analysis is curtailed there, then an investment to convert farmland to woodland might often appear to yield poor value; timber values are long delayed and may well be less than the food value that can be generated over that period. Such restricted analysis is common, especially if food and timber are the only marketed, and hence priced, goods produced by such a change. However, afforestation can affect the production of a wide range of other goods. A shift from agriculture to woodland can often result in an improvement in water quality as forests require much lower inputs of fertiliser than farmland, reducing the run-off of nutrients into waterways, resulting in less-polluted rivers and higher water quality. In very many cases woodlands also reduce emissions of air pollution and store carbon, helping reduce climate change. Similarly, woodlands typically provide much greater recreational benefits than many forms of agriculture. To improve decisions regarding natural capital we need to assess all the major trade-offs arising from a proposed change and ensure that they are valued on a level playing field.

12.1.3 Decisions, trade-offs and valuation

12.1.4 Payment mechanisms: uniting payers and providers of ecosystem services

As part of any investment analysis, consideration needs to be given to who will provide and fund a given natural capital change, with the ‘payment mechanism’ being an important element of the appraisal process (Table 12.1). The provision of non-market environmental goods is most commonly funded by the public sector, while the private sector provides the goods (e.g. farmers subsidised to provide conservation services). A common challenge for public funding schemes is that subsidies are often allocated as untargeted flat-rate payments across all locations, whereas the provision of biodiversity and ecosystem services varies spatially. While such an approach is easy to administer, it is highly inefficient. By combining environmental modelling and economic valuation, interventions can be targeted to where they will yield greater benefits. This ensures that funders, ultimately tax payers, receive better value for money. It also means that the same level of resource generates enhanced environmental outcomes. Further improvements in the efficiency and impact of funding can be delivered through the use of ‘natural capital markets’ to allocate support payments. By creating competitive market structures (so-called ‘reverse auction’ markets; Elliott et al., Reference Elliott, Day and Jones2015; Fooks et al., Reference Fooks, Messer and Duke2015) which induce competition between ecosystem service providers, the incentive for private firms to over-charge for their actions is reduced.

Of course, from a public-sector perspective, these mechanisms are further enhanced if the private sector finances these initiatives. Corporate social responsibility investments now represent a substantial source of private-sector funding for environment projects involving major multinational corporates. For example, since 2012 Microsoft’s global operations have been completely carbon-neutral (Microsoft Corp., 2017), an initiative recently taken up by Google (Google, 2016; Hölzle, Reference Hölzle2016). While such investments clearly represent short-term costs to such companies, the social and reputational benefits generated by environmental improvements may well raise sales, generate price premiums and hence improve profits (e.g. Bateman et al., 2015). Moving more in the direction of conventional profit-bearing activities, many companies invest in areas that overtly yield a mix of both private and public benefits. For example, Häagen-Dazs (2017) has invested substantially in approaches to sustain honeybee populations, recognising that they are of considerable non-use value to society, as well as being vital to the ingredients supply chain of the ice cream manufacturer. Combining these activities with competitive Payments for Ecosystem Service markets allow companies to achieve cost reductions or revenue increases at minimum cost, thereby maximising the profitability of such actions (Day et al., Reference Day, Couldrick and Welters2013; Bateman et al., Reference Bateman, Binner, Day, Daily, Mandle and Salzman2018).

12.1.5 Spatial scaling and targeting

From a pure natural science perspective it can be argued that there is no single perfect scale for decision-making involving an ecological system. This situation is further complicated by intersecting administrative jurisdictions and boundaries defined by the geographical extent of the economic benefits generated by ecosystem services (Bateman et al., Reference Bateman, Day and Georgiou2006). We have to recognise these boundaries, overlaps and conflicts when making decisions to delineate the spatial scale that is most suitable for the investment. As highlighted above, a further spatial issue concerns the degree to which policies are untargeted, effectively ignoring the natural variation in the environment. These challenges have to be acknowledged and incorporated within decision-making systems if we are to achieve the levels of value for money that limited public funding requires. In particular, the tendency towards simplistic administrative methods has to be resisted. What appears to be financially cheap can often be economically very expensive in terms of the high opportunity costs and poor value for money delivered.

12.2.1 Background

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) highlighted global ecosystem service degradation and urged action at all governmental levels to address this problem. The first major national level response to this challenge was provided by the UK through its National Ecosystem Assessment (NEA). The NEA sought to assess the consequences of natural capital use and land-use change, and showed that over 30% of the services provided by the UK’s natural environment are in decline.

The data provided by the NEA (UK NEA, 2011) formed the basis of the models used in the assessment outlined in this case study (Bateman et al., Reference Bateman, Abson and Andrews2011b, Reference Bateman, Harwood and Mace2013, Reference Bateman, Agarwala and Binner2016). A wide range of highly detailed, spatially referenced, environmental data covering all of Great Britain were collected, ranging from soil characteristics (e.g. susceptibility to water logging), climate variables (e.g. temperature, rainfall) and land use (e.g. agricultural output) (Figure 12.2). This was complimented by similar spatially and temporally referenced data on market variables (e.g. prices, costs) and policy (e.g. subsidies, regulations such as land-use constraints). The analysis linked environmental, economic and policy factors to examine both the market and non-market consequences and values generated by land use and changes thereto. The spatial nature of these analyses also demonstrated how future policy can be targeted to most efficiently allocate available resources to maximise their net benefits.

Figure 12.2 The drivers, consequences and values of land-use change, associated with agricultural land use in Great Britain and incorporated within the conceptual framework of the National Ecosystem Assessment.

(Mace et al., 2011)

Each analysis began from an econometric model of the environmental, economic and policy drivers of land-use (Fezzi & Bateman, Reference Fezzi and Bateman2011). This model drew upon long-term (~50 year) and high-resolution (2 × 2 km grid square or finer) national-scale data sets. The NEA set out to consider six policy scenarios (UK NEA, 2011; Bateman et al., Reference Bateman, Harwood and Mace2013), each of which integrated both high and low future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends (Fezzi et al., Reference Fezzi, Bateman and Askew2014). Each predicted land use served as the base data, inputting to a series of interlinked ecosystem service impact and economic valuation models detailing the delivery of food production, emission and sequestration of greenhouse gases (including CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O), expected numbers of open-access recreational visits, levels of urban greenspace amenity and biodiversity metrics (Abson et al., Reference Abson, Termansen and Pascual2014; Bateman et al., Reference Bateman, Harwood and Abson2014; Fezzi et al., Reference Fezzi, Bateman and Askew2014; Perino et al., Reference Perino, Andrews and Kontoleon2014; Sen et al., Reference Sen, Harwood and Bateman2014).

12.2.2 Land-use–derived ecosystem services and their economic valuation

The major ecosystem services in the analyses were valued using a mix of market and non-market valuation techniques, with biodiversity set as a no-loss constraint, as follows.

• Food output provided the key, market-valued ecosystem service, determining approximately 75% of land use in the UK, including cropland, grassland, mountain, moor and heathland environments (Bateman et al., Reference Bateman, Harwood and Mace2013).

• GHG sequestration had a non-market value. The quantity of GHG emission/storage associated with land was determined by the use and management of that land (e.g. cattle stocking density of cattle, other major methane producers, machinery emissions), annual flows of soil carbon due and accumulation/emission of carbon dioxide via terrestrial vegetative biomass. GHG values can be obtained through various routes, including estimates of the expected damage of climate change, the cost of abating emissions and the values of carbon traded in emission markets (Abson et al., Reference Abson, Termansen and Pascual2014).

• Open-access recreational visits had a non-market value that varied across environments (e.g. mountains, coasts, forests, urban greenspaces) and location (Sen et al., Reference Sen, Harwood and Bateman2014).

• Urban greenspace had a non-market value reflecting aesthetic, physical and mental health, neighbourhood, noise regulation and air pollution reduction benefits (Perino et al., Reference Perino, Andrews and Kontoleon2014).

• Wild bird species diversity was used to represent biodiversity, because these species are high in the food chain and are often considered to be good indicators of wider ecosystem health (Gregory et al., Reference Gregory, van Strien and Voríšek2005). As discussed previously, current estimates of biodiversity values and, in particular, pure non-use existence values are insufficiently robust. Following the reasoning set out above, we imposed a ‘no-loss’ constraint on biodiversity as a consequence of land-use change (Bateman et al., Reference Bateman, Harwood and Mace2013).

12.2.3 Identification of the beneficiaries

The same change can yield very differing consequences to different groups of people. So we considered both the market and non-market net benefits to farmers, foresters, recreationalists, wildlife enthusiasts, etc. This allows the decision-maker to comparatively assess the scenarios and understand which provides the best value for money to society (both nationally and globally). Here, we ignore these distributional issues (but see Bateman et al., Reference Bateman, Abson and Andrews2011b; Perino et al., Reference Perino, Andrews and Kontoleon2014) and focus upon the overall benefits to society. The major beneficiaries of alternative land-uses included the following.

• Farmers: the latitude and generally colder climate of the UK means that temperature rises are likely to result in farmers increasing their profits and intensive arable production in areas that are not liable to drought (Fezzi et al., Reference Fezzi, Bateman and Askew2014; Fezzi & Bateman, Reference Fezzi and Bateman2015). However, in turn, this will probably negatively impact upon water quality due to nutrient pollution (Fezzi et al., Reference Fezzi, Harwood, Lovett and Bateman2015). Lower river water quality will also impact negatively upon freshwater biodiversity and river-related recreational values (Bateman et al., Reference Bateman, Agarwala and Binner2016).

• Recreationalists: open-access recreational sites benefit individuals who visit them, with the net benefit declining as distance from an individual’s home or outset point grows.

• Urban residents: urban greenspace value is reflected in local property and rental value, with the value generally decaying as distance increases (Day et al., Reference Day, Bateman and Lake2007; Andrews et al., Reference Andrews, Ferrini and Bateman2017). Increasing access to urban greenspace typically generates significant aggregate social benefits. However, the distribution of benefits can be uneven and result in gentrification, which has the potential to push poorer families out to less-advantaged areas. Recently developed techniques such as Equilibrium Sorting Analyses seek to capture this effect and bring it into decision-making (Binner & Day, Reference Binner and Day2015).

• Biodiversity beneficiaries: improvements in species diversity not only benefit the species being directly or indirectly (e.g. through food chains) conserved, but people who value such improvements through use (e.g. hunter, fisherman, wildlife watchers) or non-use (existence values). Biodiversity also indirectly delivers value through roles in ecosystem functioning and service provision.

12.2.4 Analysing trade-offs across alternative land-use scenarios

For simplicity, we considered the two most extreme policy scenarios in this chapter. The World Markets scenario prioritises economic growth by completely liberalising trade, removing tariffs and trade barriers and ending agricultural subsidies; as a result, farming moved towards large-scale, intensive production methods. By contrast, the Nature@Work scenario priority is to adapt to climate change and enhance ecosystem service provision.

While considering market goods alone and ignoring non-market impacts captures only a single dimension of impact, the World Markets scenario indicated values which are frequently given primacy in policy decisions. This scenario saw agricultural value increase £1.03 billion per annum because of a shift towards more intensive production (Table 12.2). Conversely, the Nature@Work scenario led to agricultural values declining by £0.13 billion per annum as farmland was converted to urban-fringe and recreational greenspace. So, if we restricted our analysis to market-priced goods alone, then the World Markets scenario almost always appeared justified. This conclusion was unaffected by varying the degree of climate change across our analysis (Bateman et al., Reference Bateman, Mace and Fezzi2011a, p. 1268).

However, when we extended our assessment to consider the impacts of land-use change upon non-market goods, we find that the Nature@Work scenario consistently yielded preferable outcomes (Table 12.2). GHG emission values in the World Markets scenario were negative in nearly all areas. In contrast, under the Nature@Work scenario, most areas saw benefits in terms of increased carbon storage; the exceptions were upland areas dominated by fragile peatlands which were vulnerable to both agricultural intensification in the World Markets scenario and increasing forestry in the Nature@Work scenario. The World Markets scenario saw losses in visitor values in almost all areas across the country, while the Nature@Work scenario led to recreational benefits over the large majority of the country. Similar results were seen for urban greenspace values. Our biodiversity metric clearly shows that the World Markets scenario resulted in major declines across large swathes of the country. In comparison, the Nature@Work scenario generated improvements across the lowlands (and, therefore, much of the UK), although the picture in the uplands was more mixed, with insignificant or weakly negative effects. This suggests that an optimal solution would combine elements of multiple policies.

In summary, the World Markets scenario increased the production of marketed agricultural output at the cost of significant declines in all other ecosystem services, which strongly outweighed the value of agricultural gains. It therefore lowered overall social value very substantially. In contrast, the Nature@Work scenario reversed this pattern, causing a relatively modest reduction in agricultural production in return for very substantial increases in all other non-market ecosystem service–related goods, and a correspondingly major increase in overall social value. This disparity was further reinforced when we considered the non-monetised biodiversity measures. If we applied our constraint that any decision that would lower biodiversity in an area is ruled ineligible then, at a national level, the World Markets scenario was unacceptable. A spatially targeted optimisation approach could avoid biodiversity losses in local areas and further enhance decision-making.

12.2.5 Policy implications

The UK Government responded quickly and positively to the challenge of the National Ecosystem Assessment, adopting an overarching policy goal to be ‘the first generation to leave the natural environment in a better state than it inherited’ (HM Government, 2011, 2018; House of Commons, 2012). As part of this ambition, the UK has invested in research seeking to develop a ‘natural capital approach’ to decision-making, which explicitly recognises the dependence of economic value and well-being on the natural capital stocks provided by the environment and the ecosystem service flows which those assets provide. To help guide this process, the 2011 Natural Environment White Paper (HM Government, 2011) set up the world’s first independent Natural Capital Committee (NCC) to advise on the restoration and improvement of natural capital as a means of sustaining and enhancing economic growth in the UK (Defra, 2012; NCC, 2013). Importantly, while it has a close relationship with the UK’s environmental department, the NCC actually reports to the country’s finance ministry. Indeed, the UK’s Chief Finance Minister, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, chairs the Economic Affairs Committee (EAC, 2017), which the NCC formally advises (NCC, 2017a).

The NCC has reported extensively on methods to ‘mainstream’ natural capital considerations into both policy and business decision-making (NCC, 2017a, 2017b). Furthermore, it has also provided extensive advice on the valuation, accounting and financing of natural capital enhancement (NCC, 2017a, 2017c). Additionally, the NCC proposed and advised on a 25-year plan for the natural environment, focusing upon the need to ensure sustainable flows of ecosystem services from the UK’s natural capital (NCC, 2015, 2017d), a recommendation which was then adopted by all of the major UK political parties and government (HM Government, 2018). This places the natural capital approach at the heart of decision- and policy-making over both the short and long term.

13.3.1 Policy briefs

At one end of the spectrum, strategies include one-off events or communication products. For example, policy briefs are succinct documents that address a single policy issue of high interest to policy-makers. The analysis of a priority policy problem is context-specific, incorporates solutions and implementation considerations and is usually completed within days (Lavis et al., Reference Lavis, Permanand and Oxman2009a). Policy briefs are an acknowledged method for disseminating knowledge to policy-makers and are often used in the health and social sciences sectors (Lavis et al., Reference Lavis, Boyko and Oxman2009b; Rajic et al., Reference Rajic, Young and McEwen2013; Balian et al., Reference Balian, Drius and Eggermont2016). The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations adopted policy briefs to disseminate information about agricultural development issues to the general public. However, the impact of policy briefs depends on the reader. Experts are less likely to change their opinion after reading a brief than non-experts (Masset et al., Reference Masset, Gaarder and Beynon2013).

13.3.2 Science–policy forums

A science–policy forum, or policy dialogue, brings stakeholders and scientists together. In contrast to policy briefs, policy dialogues may concentrate on actions in response to research evidence. The main aim of this tool is to facilitate discussion (Lavis et al., Reference Lavis, Boyko and Oxman2009b). Policy dialogues can be time-intensive to plan and organise but provide an opportunity to hear about experiences from a diversity of stakeholders. They may establish and cultivate ongoing personal relationships between decision-makers and researchers (Boydell et al., Reference Boydell, Dew and Hodgins2017). Deliberate engagement techniques, such as policy dialogues, can generate confidence among participants that their inputs will guide policy development (Gregory et al., Reference Gregory, Hartz-Karp and Watson2008).

13.3.3 Training courses, exchange programmes and job-shadowing

Training courses for researchers and policy-makers may support translation skills, communication and networking skills or understanding of subject matter or of government processes, so individuals can communicate more effectively with their counterparts (Young et al., Reference Young, Waylen and Sarkki2014). Exchange programmes such as secondments are a useful way for scientists to learn how to translate their knowledge to generate benefits in the specific decision-making contexts in which policy-makers work. They can also catalyse new relationships (Gibbons et al., Reference Gibbons, Zammit and Youngentob2008). The National Environmental Research Program in Australia 2010–2015 aimed, in part, to enhance mutual understanding by offering short-term secondments for researchers into policy settings (DIISRTE, 2012). Job-shadowing, in which individuals accompany high-level policy-makers in their daily professional interactions, is also valuable for improving understanding of the realities of decision-making (Young et al., Reference Young, Waylen and Sarkki2014).

13.3.4 Knowledge brokers

One outcome of theoretical or practical learning may be the emergence of so-called knowledge brokers, individuals or groups that facilitate interactions and knowledge transfer between researchers and end users (Rajic et al., Reference Rajic, Young and McEwen2013) by understanding and serving the needs of both. However, the effectiveness of such arrangements is not often evaluated (Ward et al., Reference Ward, House and Hamer2009; Meagher & Lyall, Reference Meagher and Lyall2013).

13.3.5 Informal working groups

When scientists and policy-makers have established relationships, they may create ad-hoc working groups to address public policy issues (Burgman, Reference Burgman2015a). If participants define problems and outputs well, and consider incentives for both parties, then working groups offer shared responsibility for objectives and the prospect of effective outcomes for policy needs (Gibbons et al., Reference Gibbons, Zammit and Youngentob2008). Working groups have the potential to grow into longer term arrangements. For example, in the USA, the ad-hoc formation of a working group of waterfowl managers and biologists from federal and state agencies led to the development of a now long-running programme based on adaptive resource management principles (Nichols et al., Reference Nichols, Johnson and Williams2015).

13.3.6 National funding schemes

National funding schemes can aim to bring scientists and policy-makers closer together by creating policy-relevant incentives for research institutions. The Australian Research Council (ARC) linkage funding scheme, for example, encourages the development of partnerships between science and government, business, industry and community organisations. ARC has also created Centres of Excellence, consisting of long-term collaborations between eligible higher education organisations and partner businesses and agencies. They focus on priority research that is identified by the Australian Government, and operate within clearly articulated governance structures (ARC, 2018). The Australian Cooperative Research Centres Association programme was established in 1990 to bring large groups of researchers in the public and private sectors together with end users (CRCA, 2018). The role of the end users is to help plan the direction of the research and monitor its progress (Burgman, Reference Burgman2015a; CRCA, 2018).

In the UK, from the early 1900s, the Haldane Principle guided government investment in research based on the philosophy that decisions about research priorities should be made by researchers. In 1972, this was replaced by the Customer Contractor Principle, which introduced a market-orientated approach to government support for research (Kogan et al., Reference Kogan, Henkel and Hanney2006; Daniels et al., Reference Daniels, Spector, Goetz, Weber and Duderstadt2014). The 2014 UK Research Excellence Framework (HEFCE, 2018) guided national research investment in universities and used impact to assess the benefits of research beyond academia (Greenhalgh & Fahy, Reference Greenhalgh and Fahy2015). Similarly, in the USA, the Office of Productivity, Technology & Innovation was created in the Department of Commerce in 1981 to advocate Research and Development Limited Partnerships at universities to accelerate the transfer and private appropriation (through patents) of federally funded technology. The US National Science Foundation now considers the benefits for society of scientist’s discoveries when allocating funding (Wiley, Reference Wiley2014; N. Voulvoulis & M. Burgman, unpublished data).

13.3.7 Shared governance

Long-term arrangements, such as Centres of Excellence and Research and Development Limited Partnerships, focus on joint research priorities. However, research centres operating under a model of shared governance go a step further. In the shared governance model, scientists and policy-makers co-develop and co-manage research priorities, business cases and project plans, and the delivery of research outcomes. Shared governance, also referred to as ‘co-production’, between scientists and policy-makers is possible when partners ‘have sufficient trust, willingness and institutional room to manoeuvre to share information and decision-making power’ (Van Kerkhoff & Lebel, Reference Van Kerkhoff and Lebel2015). This model encourages the formation of research–policy partnerships built on strong personal relationships (Gibbons et al., Reference Gibbons, Zammit and Youngentob2008) and has the potential to overcome many of the issues limiting the effective use of science in policy. The Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis (CEBRA) is one example (Burgman, Reference Burgman2015a).

15.3.1 The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)

The CBD is, with regards to goals addressed, the most comprehensive global treaty dealing with nature conservation. Its three overarching objectives are (Article 1 of the Convention):

1. (a) the conservation of biological diversity,

2. (b) the sustainable use of its components and

3. (c) the fair and equitable sharing of the benefits arising out of the utilisation of genetic resources.

Thus, the CBD’s objectives refer to both intrinsic and instrumental values of biodiversity. It does so by including an unconditional call for the conservation of biodiversity in combination with the acknowledgement that people depend on nature and need to make use of it, as well as a call for dividing the benefits that are derived from nature equitably.

In total, the Convention’s text contains 42 Articles that further define aims and assign duties to the bodies of the Convention. The CBD’s clear recognition of the interaction between nature-related and societal goals is also codified in its principles. For example, the first CBD principle states that the ‘objectives of management of land, water and living resources are a matter of societal choices’, while the twelfth acknowledges that ‘the ecosystem approach should involve all relevant sectors of society and scientific disciplines’. The CBD is a legally binding treaty. Thus, a state that has signed and ratified the Convention is obliged to implement the Convention on its territory through national policies and practical management. Every two years, representatives of the member states meet at the Conference of the Parties (COP). The COP is the highest decision-making body of the CBD and it operates according to the consensus principle. This means that the text of a decision is negotiated until a compromise is reached among all parties present. If no consensus is reached, parties do not vote. Instead, only text to which no party objects is agreed upon and a decision on unresolved questions is postponed. A CBD COP decision therefore almost always represents a compromise between states with differing views. This ‘consensus principle’ has been criticised for preventing progress and watering down any suggestion to the lowest common denominator, often resulting in general, vague or ambiguous text (Kanie, Reference Kanie, Conca and Dabelko2014; Kemp, Reference Kemp2016). However, a shift from the consensus principle to a voting system faces many obstacles, e.g. the fear that parties could perceive this as a loss of sovereignty and could therefore drop out of the Convention, or that such a reform would open a ‘Pandora’s box’ and encourage open disputes on, and possibly change in, other principles or rules of procedure (Kemp, Reference Kemp2016).

To facilitate negotiations under the consensus principle, the CBD parties are divided into groups of states that discuss and align their positions; one of their members is then responsible for representing them in the plenary of the COP. Important associations of states are the European Union and the official United Nations Regional Groups (African Group, Asia–Pacific Group, Eastern European Group, Latin America and Caribbean Group, Western European and Others Group), alongside some informal groups, such as an alliance of industrialised non-EU countries called JUSCANNZ (i.e. Japan, United States, Switzerland, Canada, Australia, Norway, New Zealand).

Meetings of the CBD COP and of many other CBD bodies (e.g. of the Subsidiary Body of Technical and Technological Advice – SBSTTA, see 15.5.1) are open to so-called ‘observers’. The observer status can be obtained by, for example, non-governmental organisations, business associations or scientific institutions and it gives the right to speak in plenary but not to veto a decision.

One way in which the CBD fosters progress towards its objectives is by setting up particular Programmes of Work, each with a vision and suggested actions that CBD parties are encouraged to support. These are concerned with topics related to Agricultural Biodiversity, Dry and Sub-humid Lands Biodiversity, Forest Biodiversity, Inland Waters Biodiversity, Island Biodiversity, Marine and Coastal Biodiversity and Mountain Biodiversity. The CBD also dedicates work to cross-cutting issues, such as Climate Change and Biodiversity; Communication, Education and Public Awareness, Economics, Trade and Incentives Measures or Identification, Monitoring, Indicators and Assessments. It aims to link work on these themes closely with other UN Conventions by collaborating with, for example, UNFCCC and UNCCD secretariats (www.unccd.int/convention/about-convention/unccd-cbd-and-unfccc-joint-liaison-group).

Approximately every five years, parties must report the steps taken to implement the CBD provisions and their effectiveness to the CBD Secretariat. These ‘National Reports’ are used by the CBD Secretariat to gain an overview of global trends in the implementation process. However, as the parties are sovereign entities, they decide individually about their national implementation approaches, and are free to set own priorities (with the exception of EU member states who coordinate their efforts and are committed to EU regulations). There are no established CBD non-compliance procedures. The degree of compliance therefore varies widely and, overall, has proven to be generally insufficient, as the CBD’s goals and targets, formulated in the Convention’s Strategic Plans, have been repeatedly missed. For the period 2002–2010, the core element of the CBD’s Strategic Plan was the ‘2010 Target’: a ‘significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss at the global, regional and national level as a contribution to poverty alleviation and to the benefit of all life on Earth’ (COP-Decision VI/26). However, this 2010 Target was widely missed (Butchart et al., Reference Butchart, Walpole and Collen2010; Dirzo et al., Reference Dirzo, Young and Galetti2014).

For the following decade, the level of ambition was raised further: ‘to halt the loss of biodiversity’ by 2020. To better address the underlying causes of biodiversity loss and be more explicit about what needed to be done to make progress towards the CBD objectives, the Strategic Plan for 2011–2020 was underpinned with five strategic goals and 20 ‘Aichi Biodiversity Targets’ that formed the backbone of the Plan (see Figure 15.1). Setting up such a comprehensive framework that addressed the direct and indirect drivers of the ongoing biodiversity crises was seen as a major achievement. Furthermore, the Strategic Plan 2011–2020 has been highly relevant, beyond the global biodiversity agenda; it was endorsed by the UN General Assembly and other multi-lateral environmental agreements and therefore formed the principle global roadmap for the conservation of nature. The 20 Aichi Biodiversity Targets that formed the core of the Strategic Plan 2011–2020 were also incorporated into the global development agendas and fed into the Millennium Goals (until 2015) and subsequently the Sustainable Development Goals (until 2030).

Figure 15.1 The 20 Aichi Biodiversity Targets.

Image: Copyright BIP/SCBD.

However, despite this high political recognition, the Aichi Targets were not on track in 2018 and most will be widely missed by 2020, as indicated by the fourth Global Biodiversity Outlook report (Leadley et al., Reference Leadley, Krug and Alkemade2014) and the IPBES Global Assessment (IPBES/7/10/Add.1). Despite progress towards some Targets, the overall picture leaves no doubt: efforts need to be increased dramatically to halt and reverse the current situation, in which the drivers of biodiversity loss worldwide strongly override conservation efforts. There have been accelerated policy and management responses to the biodiversity crisis, but these are unlikely to significantly reverse trends in the state of biodiversity by 2020 (Tittensor et al., Reference Tittensor, Walpole and Hill2014).

For the post-2020 period, it is therefore crucial to focus on the implementation of the new CBD strategic framework that will then be in place. This needs to be achieved, in the first place, by the parties at the national level. Therefore, besides increased globally concerted efforts, place-based and context-specific approaches are essential for monitoring, conserving and sustainably using biodiversity.

15.3.2 Intergovernmental Science–Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES)

As a response to knowledge needs that became evident in the context of the CBD and other multi-lateral environmental agreements, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA, 2005) was conducted in 2005, followed by several national ecosystem assessments (Schröter et al., Reference Schröter, Albert and Marques2016). Building on this experience (Carpenter et al., Reference Carpenter, Mooney and Agard2009) and modelled on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Intergovernmental Science–Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) was established in 2012 to generate an integrative knowledge foundation on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services and their impact on human and societal well-being (UNEP, 2012). IPBES is not a convention but a science–policy interface that supports governments and stakeholders in decision-making at multiple scales by providing policy-relevant and scientifically credible information on the status and trends of nature and its contributions to people (Brooks et al., Reference Brooks, Lamoreux and Soberón2014). IPBES does not enforce decisions on conventions or countries, but aspires to develop an expert-based platform that provides an accessible, useful and scientifically rigorous evidence base to support biodiversity-related decision-making by national governments and international conventions (e.g. CBD, RAMSAR, CITES, UNCCD).

To achieve this, IPBES operates via four main functions – assessment, knowledge generation, policy support and capacity-building – that are implemented through voluntary participation of experts chosen by governments and organisations globally, with balanced representation across regions, gender and disciplines (IPBES, 2014). Over the coming years, IPBES aims to continue bringing together the best knowledge-holders and institutions on biodiversity around the globe, synthesising the complex dynamics of nature and their impact on human societies and the planet, providing the most credible information available through research and practice, and catalysing the generation of new knowledge to fill critical gaps in order to better conserve nature and ensure human and societal well-being (Figure 15.2).

Figure 15.2 (a) IPBES operational model of the Platform (adapted from IPBES, 2014), (b) analytical conceptual framework of assessments.

(adapted from Díaz et al., Reference Díaz, Demissew and Joly2015)

The IPBES Plenary, where 130 member states form a governing body, meets annually to track the progress of the work programme and to make decisions on the way forward. A Multidisciplinary Expert Panel (MEP) advises on scientific and technical aspects of the programme. The expert groups, taskforces and assessment authors are the scientists and knowledge-holders. Stakeholders and observers also play significant roles in IPBES by providing diverse perspectives and forms of knowledge and acting as catalysts for conservation in their respective communities of practice. In particular, IPBES is developing a mechanism to better integrate holders of indigenous and local knowledge into the process for a more comprehensive understanding and outlook on nature’s values and futures (IPBES, 2014).

The decision-making process of IPBES is lengthy but transparent, due to the nature of the intergovernmental plenary system (Figure 15.3 shows the participants).

Figure 15.3 Structures of IPBES (a) science–policy platform, (b) intergovernmental plenary.

(IPBES, 2018b)

IPBES is an independent intergovernmental platform that works in partnership with the large United Nations Programmes such as the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the UN Development Programme (UNDP). Its work is aligned to the CBD and other international Conventions (e.g. Ramsar, CITES, as well as the UNCCD). Its unique role is to mobilise scientific communities from multiple disciplines to harmonise research agendas on biodiversity and its impact on societies among key organisations, such as the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Future Earth and the Group On Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON) (IPBES, 2018a). While the social sciences and humanities are still underrepresented in the process (Vadrot et al., Reference Vadrot, Rankovic and Lapeyre2018), IPBES aims to attract more social scientists.

15.3.3 The Sustainable Development Goals

The establishment of IPBES was well timed to coincide with the inception of United Nation’s new global agenda, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (UN, 2015). Historically, the concept of sustainability builds on more than 30 years of intense political discourse, following the Brundtland Commission (1987), the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development (UN, 1992) and the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (McArthur, Reference McArthur2014). These included a goal to ‘ensure environmental sustainability’, but did not relate to biodiversity specifically. Based on the MDGs, the SDGs were developed as a more holistic and integrated approach to development following the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development in 2012. In January 2016, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, comprising 17 SDGs with 169 targets and a declaration, were officially approved during a UN Summit attended by 193 member states (UN, 2015). The 2030 Agenda aimed to stimulate action in areas of critical importance for humanity and the planet with a set of approved goals (Figure 15.4). It provides a holistic strategy that combines economic development, social inclusion and environmental sustainability and applies to all countries – poor, rich and middle-income alike – and to all segments of society (ICSU, 2017); this is the major novelty and strength of this framework, in which biodiversity conservation is no longer isolated.

Figure 15.4 The Sustainable Development Goals ‘wedding cake’.

(source/credit: Azote Images for Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University)

Its main decision body, the High-level Political Forum, provides a central platform for all member states to review progress towards the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the SDGs. To foster the implementation of the SDGs, the United Nations partnered with several governmental and non-governmental organisations worldwide to ensure commitment to this cause and also enhance synergies across global conventions. Several international coalitions, including the G20 and G8, have incorporated the 2030 Agenda into their policy frameworks, although reviews have indicated that the implementation of SDGs in general and the biodiversity goals in particular (SDG 14 life below water and SDG 15 life on land) are not yet sufficiently incorporated into national policies of either OECD or non-OECD countries (O’Connor et al., Reference O’Connor, Mackie and Van Esveld2016; Schmidt-Traub et al., Reference Schmidt-Traub, Kroll and Teksoz2017). Achieving the SDGs requires a willingness to cooperate at the international level and sustainable development to be anchored as a guiding principle in all policy fields at national, European and international levels (Schmidt-Traub et al., Reference Schmidt-Traub, Kroll and Teksoz2017). However, the achievement of many SDGs depends largely on action taken in member states and above all requires the development and implementation of strong operative concepts at national and regional levels (Schmidt-Traub et al., Reference Schmidt-Traub, Kroll and Teksoz2017). Governments and other stakeholders are expected to mobilise efforts to establish national and regional plans towards implementation of the SDGs (ICSU, 2017). This requires a balance between addressing the scope and systemic nature of the 2030 Agenda with budgetary, political and resource constraints that inevitably mean countries prioritise certain targets (ICSU, 2017) and the associated risk of negative effects for ‘non-prioritised’ ones, particularly if they are in a conflicting, even mutually exclusive, relationship (Schmalzbauer & Visbeck, Reference Schmalzbauer and Visbeck2016). Furthermore, the goals are rarely independent and consequently failures in one area can quickly undermine progress in other areas (Schmalzbauer & Visbeck, Reference Schmalzbauer and Visbeck2016). National policy-makers thus face the challenge of understanding the inter-dependencies across the SDGs and achieving coherent implementation to ensure that progress in some areas is not made at the expense of progress in others. In addition, national policies often have implications on neighbouring countries or across globalised value chains, i.e. we need to avoid pursuing objectives in one region that negatively affect other countries’ pursuit of their objectives (ICSU, 2017).

15.5.1 CBD

To conserve biodiversity, it is important to devise action on reliable, sound knowledge about its components. The CBD has incorporated this principle by obliging all contracting parties to identify and monitor particularly diverse ecosystems and habitats, threatened species and other biodiversity components of ecological, social, economic, cultural or scientific importance (Article 7 and Annex 1 of the Convention). To effectively conserve biodiversity, it is furthermore crucial to build action on sound evidence about the factors that lead to its loss and measures to reduce their impact, e.g. possible policy and management responses and their effectiveness.

The CBD collates, utilises and synthesises such knowledge in various ways. The CBD secretariat, for example, regularly publishes notifications that call for input with regard to particular questions. Approximately every five years, it publishes the ‘Global Biodiversity Outlook’, an assessment of global biodiversity states and trends and of the progress toward the CBD objectives (Leadley et al., Reference Leadley, Krug and Alkemade2014).

The CBD’s Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical and Technological Advice (SBSTTA) is responsible for processing knowledge-related tasks and providing advice and guidance to the COP with respect to scientific (and technical and technological) questions. The SBSTTA plays a crucial role because it presents recommendations that are often later followed by the COP (sometimes with modifications). Therefore, its meetings are highly politicised and cannot provide a comprehensive and balanced evidence base with regard to upcoming COP negotiations. This has long been a major criticism of the SBSTTA and was one of the major motivations for creating the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.

15.5.2 IPBES

As a platform of scientific communities and knowledge-holding networks, IPBES is expected to play a critical role in providing the best available, rigorous and comprehensive scientific evidence to various biodiversity-related conventions and international initiatives. Since its establishment in 2012, IPBES has brought together more than a thousand scientists and knowledge-holders from around the globe to integrate knowledge systems from multiple disciplines. The main IPBES products and deliverables are assessments, which synthesise scientific findings and evidence on biodiversity change and its impact on human well-being to inform policy decisions.

One of the first IPBES assessments, the IPBES pollination assessment (IPBES, Reference Potts, Imperatriz-Fonseca and Ngo2016) has made a significant global impact on policy development. For instance at the 13th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity in Mexico in 2016 (CBD COP13), a COP decision recognised its relevance for the planned fifth edition of the Global Biodiversity Outlook and listed it among the best available scientific information. The COP also encouraged parties, other governments, relevant organisations, the scientific community and stakeholders, as well as indigenous peoples and local communities, to develop and use these tools and contribute to their further development (CBD, 2016a). The pollination assessment provides a best-practice ‘toolkit’ of the approaches that can be used to decide policies and actions by governments, the private sector and civil society. Different valuation methodologies are evaluated according to different visions, approaches and knowledge systems, as well as their policy relevance, based on the diverse conceptualisation of values of biodiversity and nature’s benefits to people, including provisioning, regulating and cultural services. As such, this assessment has generated a wide range of follow-up products, actions and policy initiatives, including the following.

• A formal endorsement of the key messages of the assessment by the parties to the CBD at the 13th Conference of the Parties (COP13) in Mexico (CBD, 2016b).

• The formation of a ‘Coalition of the Willing’ by a growing number of governments around the world, inspired by the assessment to act nationally to protect pollinators and promote pollination (Promote pollinators, 2018).

• Publications in high-ranking scientific journals building on and reviewing the assessments (Potts et al., Reference Potts, Imperatriz-Fonseca and Ngo2016; Díaz et al., Reference Díaz, Pascual and Stenseke2018).

• An expanding list of national strategies and action plans on pollination in countries including, among others, Brazil, France, Germany, the Netherlands, the Republic of Korea and South Africa.

The IPBES scientific community also made significant contributions to the controversial discourse on the appropriateness of the ecosystem service concept and paved the way to reconciling differing views on conceptualisation of the human–nature relationship (Díaz et al., Reference Díaz, Pascual and Stenseke2018; Stenseke & Larigauderie, Reference Stenseke and Larigauderie2018). It should be recognised, however, that the community will continue to use many different terms for ecosystem services or the contributions people receive from nature, depending on context, and this plurality should be welcomed (Peterson et al., Reference Peterson, Harmácková and Meacham2018). Both the open-ended stakeholder network and the new concept of nature’s contributions to people reflect the co-design and co-development aspects of IPBES as a learning organisation.

The challenges posed in IPBES are many, including a more balanced integration of scientists and experts from both natural and social sciences for a holistic understanding of biodiversity and its interactions with society and humanity (Jetzkowitz et al., Reference Jetzkowitz, van Koppen and Lidskog2018; Stenseke & Larigauderie, Reference Stenseke and Larigauderie2018). A more thorough consideration of, and improvement in, achieving the balance and quality of geographic, gender and disciplinary representations will be critical in filling the knowledge gaps and adding interdisciplinary value to the IPBES assessments (Obermeister, Reference Obermeister2017; Heubach & Lambini, Reference Heubach and Lambini2018). Moving forward, it will be important for IPBES to liaise with the private sector for greater impact on socially responsible and sustainable development, and with the public in disseminating scientific knowledge to promote changes in individual behaviour and decisions conscious of biodiversity conservation.

15.5.3 SDGs

It is crucial that progress in the implementation of the SDGs in national policy processes is adequately monitored (Hák et al., Reference Hák, Janoušková and Moldan2016; Reyers et al., Reference Reyers, Stafford-Smith and Erb2017). To track the SDGs, the UN Statistics Commission has recommended over 230 official indicators, and countries are invited to submit voluntary national reviews of their progress to the High-Level Political Forum (Sachs et al., Reference Sachs, Schmidt-Traub and Kroll2017). However, not all of the indicators have well-established definitions or data for all UN member states. A review of reports submitted so far (Bizikova & Pinter, Reference Bizikova and Pinter2017) found they were particularly weak on the environmental SDGs 12–15 (Sachs et al., Reference Sachs, Schmidt-Traub and Kroll2017) and the assessment of interlinkages, synergies and trade-offs between targets (Allen et al., Reference Allen, Metternicht and Wiedmann2018). The evaluation of SDGs and tracking the progress to their achievement requires holistic scientific approaches to better understand the linkages between the SDGs and their underlying challenges, to understand thresholds, rebound effects and tipping points, and to explain the benefits and trade-offs of a range of development pathways that could lead to a more sustainable global society (Schmalzbauer & Visbeck, Reference Schmalzbauer and Visbeck2016).

The IPBES community of scientists can also provide best expert knowledge and scientific evidence for the sustainable development of the planet to inform the SDGs. For example, the recent IPBES assessment of land degradation and restoration (IPBES, Reference Scholes, Montanarella and Brainich2018c) mapped the relevance of land degradation against the SDG goals. This may help to mainstream biodiversity across sectors and societies and bring forth synergies between global initiatives. A well-functioning knowledge generation mechanism connecting scientific and policy bodies of the platform will be particularly important if IPBES is to become an effective catalyst and orchestrator of harmonised science, policy and practice for better conservation.