Previous research has identified a vulnerability paradox in global mental health: contrary to positive associations at the individual level, lower vulnerability at the country level is accompanied by a higher prevalence in a variety of mental health problems in national populations. However, the validity of the paradox has been challenged, specifically for bias from modest sample sizes and reliance on a survey methodology not designed for cross-national comparisons.

To verify whether the paradox applies to suicide, using data from a sizable country sample and an entirely different data source.

We combined data from the World Health Organization 2014 suicide report and the country vulnerability index from the 2016 World Risk Report. Suicide was predicted in different steps based on gender, vulnerability and their interaction, World Bank income categories, and suicide data quality.

A negative association between country vulnerability and suicide prevalence in both women and men was found. Suicide rates were higher for men, regardless of country vulnerability. The model predicting suicide in 96 countries based on gender, vulnerability, income and data quality had the best goodness-of-fit compared with other models. The vulnerability paradox is not accounted for by income or data quality, and exists across and within income categories.

The study underscores the relevance of country-level factors in the study of mental health problems. The lower mental disorder prevalence in more vulnerable countries implies that living in such countries fosters protective factors that more than compensate for the limitations in professional healthcare capacity.

None.

To examine the lifetime prevalence and risk of psychiatric disorders associated with natural and man-made disaster exposure in Australia.

We utilised data from a nationally representative population survey (N = 8841) which were analysed through univariate and multivariate logistic regression in order to examine the full spectrum of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) affective, anxiety and substance use disorders associated with exposure to natural and man-made disaster.

Man-made disaster exposure was primarily associated with an increased lifetime risk (odds ratio (95% CI)) of alcohol abuse disorder 2.29 (1.56–3.37), post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) 2.27 (1.36–3.79), obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD) 1.95 (1.08–3.51) and major depressive disorder 1.69 (1.01–2.85). Multiple natural disaster exposure was associated with an increased lifetime risk of panic disorder 2.26 (1.11–4.61). Among the broader disorder spectrum examined, alcohol abuse disorder accounted for the single greatest increase in lifetime disorder prevalence associated with man-made disaster exposure, and the greatest number of natural or man-made disaster exposed individuals who had developed a lifetime psychiatric disorder. Despite the relatively greater disorder risk associated with man-made disaster, natural disaster exposure was associated with more cases of psychiatric disorder, likely due to the frequency with which these events occur in Australia.

Notwithstanding the inability to draw causal inferences from cross-sectional survey data, population-based analyses provide a comprehensive and consistent method to ascertain the population imprint of psychiatric disorder and disaster exposure. Mental health policy and services should be targeting a range of psychiatric disorders in disaster contexts in addition to the usual focus on PTSD and depression, including alcohol abuse, panic disorder and OCD. Despite the relatively greater disorder risk associated with man-made disaster exposure, the national burden of psychiatric disorder in natural disaster contexts is particularly high.