We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.
To save content items to your account,
please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies.
If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account.
Find out more about saving content to .
To save content items to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org
is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings
on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part
of your Kindle email address below.
Find out more about saving to your Kindle.
Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations.
‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi.
‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.
Chapter 2 describes a process of intergenerational change linked with rising levels of existential security occurring across countries. Using representative national surveys carried out almost every year in six West European countries, Chapter 2 documents that a move from older to younger cohorts is linked to gradual shifts toward a diminishing proportion of Materialists and a growing proportion of Postmaterialists. This chapter also finds that the younger cohorts remain relatively Postmaterialist over time, implying that as the younger cohorts replace the older, the society’s prevailing values will change. Chapter 2 argues that the logic of the Postmaterialist shift has significant implications for other countries as well and predicts that the shift from Materialist to Postmaterialist values will be spreading to many other countries. While Postmaterialists constitute tiny minorities in many developing countries, such as China and India, if they continue on their present trajectories, a shift toward Postmaterialist values will take place when a younger generation emerges that has grown up taking survival for granted.
What people believe and value varies substantially across countries. These cross-national differences are robust and enduring, and are closely linked with a society’s level of economic development. This chapter identifies two most important dimensions of global cultural variation: (1) Traditional versus Secular-rational values and (2) Survival versus Self-expression values. Echoing Classic modernization theory, the evidence from the Values Surveys shows that the people of agrarian societies tend to emphasize traditional values, while societies with a high percentage of industrial workers are much likelier to emphasize Secular-rational values. Evolutionary Modernization theory considers another dimension of cross-cultural variation that classic modernization theory did not discuss—Survival versus Self-express values. The shift from Survival values to Self-expression values is linked with the transition from industrial society to post-industrial society. Existentially secure societies consistently rank high on an underlying Individualism/ Autonomy/Self-expression super-dimension, while less secure societies consistently rank low on it.
Chapter 1 introduces the evolutionary modernization theory and outlines major hypotheses to be tested in the following chapters. Evolutionary Modernization theory updates the Classic modernization by modifying the classical theory’s one-sided emphasis on cognitive factors and by integrating Emotional and experiential factors in explaining cultural change. Socioeconomic development causes major cultural change not just by influencing people’s cognition but also by directly affecting people’s sense of existential security. The increased sense of existential security followed by rapid economic growth and the absence of war brought a value shift from giving top priority to economic and physical security toward greater emphasis on free choice, environmental protection, gender equality and tolerance of gays. This in turn led to major societal changes such as a surge of democratization around 1990 and the legalization of same-sex marriage. Yet this intergenerational value shift transforms the societies’ prevailing values with long time-lags because a society’s values are shaped by its entire historical heritage, and not just its level of existential security.
High levels of economic and physical security encourage a shift from Materialist to Postmaterialist values. This makes people more favorable to a variety social changes, grows people’s acceptance of gender equality and homosexuality, and leads a shift from “pro-fertility norm” (emphasizing traditional gender roles and stigmatizing any sexual behavior not linked with reproduction) to “Individual-Choice Norms” (supporting gender equality and tolerance of homosexuality). This chapter provides evidence for the claim that economic development is conducive to the emergence of individual-choice norms by showing that these norms are more widespread among the publics of rich countries than poor ones. While basic cultural norms don’t change immediately and change happens slowly even in economically secure societies, intergenerational population replacement has gradually made individual-choice norms increasingly acceptable in high-income societies. The shift from Pro-fertility norms to Individual-choice norms has reached a tipping-point where conformist pressures have reversed polarity and are now bringing major societal changes such as legalization of same-sex marriage.
The shift from Pro-fertility norms to Individual-choice norms followed by economic modernization reduces the extent to which people are willing to engage in war, contributing to the virtual disappearance of war between major powers. Cross-sectional evidence, longitudinal evidence and multi-level evidence from societies containing most of the world’s population indicates that rising existential security encourages a shift toward Individual-choice orientations and reduces tolerance of human casualties, bringing a diminishing willingness to fight for one’s country. These changes are closely related with the advent of knowledge societies which need a less hierarchical and a stereotypically feminine leadership style that emphasizes innovation and creativity. These findings echo the findings from recent works which suggests that “democratic peace” exists because most modern democracies are prosperous and interrelated through trade. The evidence suggests that this transformation has been going on over the last thirty years, strengthening the factors supporting international peace. While these trends are reversible, the norms of the Long Peace continue to prevail for now.
While rising existential security makes people more open to new ideas and more tolerant of outgroups, declination of existential insecurity has the opposite effect: it encourages an Authoritarian Reflex in which people close ranks behind strong leaders, with strong in-group solidarity, rigid conformity to group norms and rejection of outsiders. Support for xenophobic populist authoritarian movements is motivated by a backlash against cultural change. From the start, the younger Postmaterialist birth cohorts disproportionately supported environmentalist parties, while older, less secure people supported xenophobic authoritarian parties, in an enduring intergenerational value clash. Declining existential security explains why support for these movements is greater now than it was thirty years ago. During the past three decades, as a large share of the population experienced declining real income and job security, along with a massive influx of immigrants and refugees, strong period effects have been working to increase support for xenophobic parties.
Classic secularization theory held that religion would gradually disappear, with the spread of education and scientific knowledge. But basic cultural norms don’t change immediately as is evidenced by the persistence of religion, The growth of religious parties in the Muslim world, the evangelical revival sweeping through Latin America and many former communist countries, and the prominence of fundamentalist politics in the U.S. demonstrate that religion has remained a powerful factor in social and political life. Although economic modernization tends to bring secularization within any country that experiences it, religion is unlikely to disappear in the foreseeable future for several reasons: First, secularization brings a sharp decline in human fertility rates, which remain relatively high in religious societies. The world as a whole has a larger proportion of people with strong religious beliefs today than it did 30 years ago. Second, while industrialization was linked with an increasingly materialistic, mechanical secular worldview, the rise of the knowledge society brings growing interest in ideas, innovation and Postmaterialist concerns.
High-income countries are now entering the stage of Artificial Intelligence Society-- an advanced phase of the Knowledge Society, in which virtually anyone’s job can be automated. While artificial intelligence has a huge potential to improve our prosperity and health, it also brings a winner-takes-all society that creates a high level of inequality. The deepening inequality in the era of artificial intelligence undermines existential security for most of the population, making many high-income societies regress toward the xenophobic authoritarian politics. The current xenophobic authoritarian politics, however, are different from the xenophobic authoritarianism that surged during the Great Depression in that the current one does not result from objective scarcity. Insecurity today results not from inadequate resources but from misallocation of resources— which is ultimately a political question. With appropriate political realignment and the emergence of a new coalition emerges that restores political power to the majority, humanity can devise the means to stay in control of Artificial Intelligence.
This book is designed to help the reader understand of how people’s values and goals are changing, and how this is changing the world. People’s values and behavior are shaped by the degree to which survival is secure. For most of the time since humans first appeared, survival has been precarious. During the decades since World War II, growing existential security has been propelling most of the world’s societies toward greater emphasis on Individualism, autonomy and Self-expression values. This book presents a new version of modernization theory-- Evolutionary Modernization theory—which generates a set of hypotheses that we test against a unique data base: the World Values Survey and European Values Study.
This chapter challenges the views that democracy has reached its high-water mark and is in long-term retreat. While it is unrealistic to assume that democratic institutions can be set up easily, the conditions conducive to democracy can and do change. The world as a whole is becoming richer and safer. This change is conducive to the rise of existential security and self-expression values, which contributes to the spread of democracy. Although the high-income countries are currently experiencing an Authoritarian Reflex, it is not because of objective scarcity (their economic resources are abundant and growing) but largely because of steeply rising economic inequality. If it were reversed, the long-term spread of democracy might resume. There is no need to panic about the fact that democracy is currently in retreat. The dynamics of modernization and democracy are becoming increasingly clear, and it is unlikely that they will fail to function in the long run.