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This chapter explores the cultural reception of Pablo Neruda in China and Japan. Between 1949 and 1979, Neruda was among the most translated foreign writers in China, playing an essential role as a cultural diplomat for the Chinese government. In addition, he established a friendship with the poet Ai Qing (1910–1996), and their memory is still remembered through Ai Qing’s son Ai Weiwei (1957–), one of the most famous Chinese artists and activists today. Compared with his popularity in China, Neruda never received much critical attention in Japan. After World War II, the US occupation forced Japan to unwillingly become the centerpiece for America’s Cold War strategy in East Asia. Although the country never embraced communism as a significant political force, the essay argues that contemporary Japanese artists such as Taeko Tomiyama (1921–2021) and Nobu Takehisa (1940–) found inspiration in Neruda’s work regarding literature, art, politics, and nature in Latin America.
The rise of community capitalism since the mid-2010s is reflected in the return of protectionism, authoritarianism, nativism, and violent conflict. European capitalism was forced to adapt by being more assertive. Europeans have embraced solutions that were previously refused as too protectionist, such as European preference, free trade contingent on adhering to social and environmental norms, subsidies to industry for strategic reasons, and competition policy decisions based on reciprocity. Some of these ideas were long defended by France. Germany previously criticised them, but has embraced some in trade since 2016, and others in foreign policy since 2022. The management of Brexit has reaffirmed the basis of European soft power, which depends on the unity of the Single Market. The Covid-19 pandemic (2020–21) forced the Union to adopt protectionist and interventionist measures. The Russo-Ukrainian War has led to very strong sanctions packages, as well as the Union’s foray into military matters. But the Europeans still remain heavily dependent on the US for defence. Donald Trump’s return to power in 2025 has forced Europe to think harder about organising community capitalism.
This is the first interdisciplinary work on marriage migration from the former Soviet Union to Reform-era China, almost invariably involving a Slavic bride and a Chinese husband. To understand China better as a destination for marriage migration, Elena Barabantseva delves into the politics and lived experiences of desire, marriage and race, all within China's pursuit of national rejuvenation. She brings together diverse sources, including immigration policies, migration patterns, TV portrayals, life stories, and digital ethnography, to present an embodied analysis of intimate geopolitics. Barabantseva argues that this particularly gendered and racialised model of international marriage is revealing of China's relations within the global world order, in which white femininity embodies the perceived success of Chinese masculinity and nationhood. This title is also available as open access on Cambridge Core.
Chapter 3 focuses on Hong Kong, where there were 261 death sentences but no executions after 1966. Chinese hostility to democratic reforms prevented the constitutional advances that occurred in other colonies in this period and left the British government vulnerable to parliamentary scrutiny in the wake of an execution. Previous studies argued that Britain required Hong Kong’s governors to commute death sentences from the mid 1960s, but colonial correspondence shows that clemency was not automatic until a decade later. Clemency appeals were judged on a case by case basis, even after Governor Murray MacLehose’s decision to uphold Tsoi Kwok-cheung’s death sentence was overruled by the British government in 1973. MacLehose thereafter played a central role in negotiating the Hong Kong Executive Council’s support for reprieves and eventually oversaw de facto abolition, as he strived to prevent capital punishment compromising his administration’s reform agenda. MacLehose also set a precedent for future governors by opposing reforms to the death penalty in other British Dependent Territories, which he feared would draw unwanted attention to Hong Kong’s anomalous position.
Thought reform campaigns aimed at the psychological transformation of captives have long been tools to enhance national security and political legitimacy in East Asia. Fusing Soviet concepts of human perfectibility and Confucian ideals of transformation through education, sophisticated systems have evolved to convert political opponents. Whether labelled as tenkō in Japan, ‘self-renovation’ in Nationalist China, or ‘new learning’ in the People’s Republic of China, these programmes shared the fundamental goal of pressuring individuals to renounce previous beliefs and adopt state-sanctioned ideologies. This article examines how Japanese war crimes prisoners, political dissidents, and former Chinese Nationalist officers experienced these campaigns. Despite differences in implementation, each regime used confession, group study, and psychological coercion. This historical perspective is particularly relevant today as China’s leadership continues to weaponise historical narratives – including the ‘correct’ understandings of WWII history – with implications for contemporary tensions between China and Taiwan.
Over the past decade, China has significantly expanded its security cooperation with other authoritarian regimes, yet existing research struggles to capture the informal and ambiguous nature of these relationships. This article develops a new conceptualisation of ‘security ties’ grounded in the logic of authoritarian rule. Security ties are sustained interactions that contribute to regime survival and unfold across five functional domains: diplomatic and military contacts, support for regime security, military capacity building, non-combat operations, and wartime support. To capture variation, this article analyses security ties along three dimensions: depth, durability, and domestic involvement. As a proof of concept, the framework is applied to China’s security ties with ten representatively selected autocracies between 2019 and 2024. The analysis reveals that China’s ties to Russia are by far the deepest, most durable, and institutionalised. Ties to other autocracies are more selective and uneven. Military capacity building emerges as a central but varied pillar, while cooperation aimed at regime security and wartime support remains limited to a narrow set of partners. The article advances debates on authoritarian alignment by conceptualising it as a differentiated web of security ties rather than a cohesive alliance, and it offers a framework for systematically analysing autocratic security cooperation.
Network ties are crucial sources of organizational learning. Different types of networks, however, embody different types of resources and may relate to exploitative and exploratory learning differently. Drawing on social network theory and organizational learning, we differentiate overseas business and overseas ethnic ties of exporting small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and examine their relationship with exploitative and exploratory learning, respectively. Our results based on survey data of exporting SMEs in China find that overseas business ties are positively related to exploitative learning, whereas overseas ethnic ties are positively related to exploratory learning. Furthermore, slack resources strengthen the positive relationship between overseas ethnic ties and exploratory learning. Our study provides new theoretical and managerial insights for the utilization of business and ethnic ties to achieve exploratory and exploitative learning, particularly in the context of exporting SMEs.
Why would a strong authoritarian state choose not to enforce its own policy? We extend the theory of forbearance to autocracies, highlighting its distinct incentives and characteristics. Using China’s social insurance policies as a case study, we argue that promotion-driven local officials under intense interjurisdictional competition allow firms to evade payroll taxes to boost economic performance and advance their careers. This effect is most significant among domestic private firms and foreign firms. We conduct one of the first systematic analyses of firm-level social insurance contributions in an authoritarian context, supplemented by individual-level survey data. Our findings show that bureaucratic forbearance of China’s social insurance policies has a pro-business bias, undermining the policies originally designed to address inequalities during market reforms.
Why is the Liberal International Order unraveling – and will this lead to global disorder? Broken Cycle explores this urgent question by viewing international politics through a dynamic lens focused on the rise and fall of great powers – whose periodic global wars determine who rules and which ideas and values prevail in the reordered international system. Randall L. Schweller uncovers recurring patterns of change, offering a framework to anticipate the contours of the emerging world. Rather than tracking short-term diplomatic shifts, this book seeks the deeper rhythms of history – cycles of growth, expansion, and decline – that shape international politics over centuries. These patterns are not inevitable, but they are powerful. By understanding them, we gain insight into the forces driving today's dissent – and tomorrow's possibilities. This is a study of the structural forces that govern change, the crises that break the old order, and the ideas that rise in its place.
States require an accurate perception of the external environment to thrive in a competitive international system. With a solid grasp of the landscape, states can wisely define their core interests, assess threats and opportunities, and bring power and commitments into balance. A commonly used method to understand the external environment is the historical analogy, comparing present events and controversies to more momentous ones from the past. The present international environment has been analogized to the pre-World War I period, to Nazi Germany, and the Cold War. While they offer superficial similarities to the current state of affairs, these analogies are not helpful for understanding present times. Instead, the current system is one of unbalanced bipolarity – a system that existed from 1945 to 1970. But even though the structures are the same, there remain important differences between these two systems. This chapter discusses what is new and noteworthy about present-day unbalanced bipolarity.
Systemic change by means of hegemonic war amounts to a transformation of the parameters of political legitimacy. The war decides who rules and the content of legitimacy at the global level. As such, only the most extensive major-power wars – ones that end in a new phase of substantial capability re-concentration and global military-political and economic leadership – can be designated hegemonic wars. The history of international order and, therefore, of the Long Cycle started with the Italian renaissance and the West European maritime explorations of the late fifteenth century. I identify four hegemonic wars: the Italian Wars (1496–1559), the Thirty Years’ War (1618–1648), the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars (1792–1815), and World War II (1939–1945). To this list, I add one “failed” power transition, the end of the Cold War (1989–1991). A new Long Cycle began in 1991, with the United States serving as the lone World Power. This chapter explores each Long Cycle and all four phases therein. This discussion is comparatively brief for the first two long cycles, becoming more extensive for the three most recent cases, for they offer more “usable pasts” than the earlier cycles from which to draw relevant lessons for modern times.
Recent scholarship has emphasized methodological innovations to mitigate preference falsification in public opinion data, yet systematic scrutiny of bias in regression analyses remains limited. Drawing on analyses of political trust in China, we offer three key insights. First, determining the direction of social desirability bias in regression estimates—whether over- or underestimation—is challenging ex ante. Second, analyses of two nationally representative Chinese surveys, one incorporating a list experiment, cast doubt on the purported positive effect of social welfare expansion on political trust. Extending beyond social welfare and the Chinese case, we find similar biases when regressions rely on direct questions. Third, we show that certain identification strategies can partially mitigate regression bias when direct questions are unavoidable.
The article examines artificial intelligence (AI) narratives of the three most important powers in the emerging global AI order – the US, China, and the EU. It argues that these narratives are central to constructing the meanings ascribed to AI in international politics and therefore to understanding the global competition for AI leadership. Specifically, the article uses a method of narrative analysis to reconstruct the AI narratives of the three powers from government documents and strategy papers. These narratives speak to the worldviews and AI images of the powers, how they view each other’s aspirations and behaviours, and what their objectives and motivations are to engage in AI competition. The relationship between the narratives sheds light on the scope for international AI cooperation and conflict. The results reinforce expectations of an intensifying ‘AI race’ between the US and China for global AI leadership. The EU comes out more as a bystander to this geopolitical competition, but strives to lead the development of international AI norms and standards. The article points to different potentials for cooperation and conflict on different aspects of AI and identifies status-seeking as a possible driver of AI competition.
This article examines how China’s central political inspections indirectly enhance municipal provision of invisible public goods. Such goods (e.g., underground pipelines, drainage systems) eludes reliable public assessment through daily observation. Drawing on Mani and Mukand, we emphasize their two defining attributes: (1) conditional evaluation (public judgment requires specific triggers like extreme weather), and (2) temporal accountability lag (delayed quality assessment). Unlike technical business inspections, political inspections prioritize provincial leaders’ political loyalty, generating cascading deterrent effects on municipal officials. Confronting heightened career risks, rational local officials strategically reallocate resources to rectify undersupplied invisible goods. Empirical analysis leveraging the first wave of nationwide inspection data confirms this causal mechanism.
Globalisation has always shaken the kaleidoscope of connections between people into new patterns. In the greatest global shift of power since the United States assumed Britain’s former role in the world, China and India returned to global supremacy in the twenty-first century. By 2000, China loomed on the horizon as the next global juggernaut. Half a millennium after Europe rose to dominance, the world witnessed a fundamental rebalancing of West and East from the developed countries to the developing powers of North and South Asia. This metamorphosis in economic and power relations reshaped New Zealand’s export economy.
After the Zero COVID policy ended on December 7, 2022, ~90% of mainland Chinese were infected in a COVID-19 wave. This systematic review synthesized research estimating excess mortality during that wave in mainland China. We searched seven databases in May 2024 and updated our search in July–August 2025. Peer-reviewed research (Chinese or English), published since January 1, 2023, estimating excess deaths in the COVID-19 wave post-Zero-COVID was included. Risk of bias was assessed using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Two authors independently conducted abstract screening, full-text review, data extraction, and risk-of-bias assessment. Seven articles were included. Two studies analysed the death records of a town and a district in Shanghai, estimating the excess mortality rates of 153.6% and 174.3%, respectively. Using indirect methods, four studies estimated national excess mortality (range: 0.71–1.87 million). Another study estimated excess mortality in Taiyuan. Studies used diverse methods to estimate excess deaths, resulting in widely varying and uncertain estimates. Choice of reference period, seasonality, and other factors affect expected mortality estimates.
Captivity is a complex phenomenon in international politics with a broad range of purposes, functions, and consequences. Existing scholarship suggests that states use captivity, for example, to facilitate hostage or prisoner exchanges, to extract material rewards, or, in the case of human shields, for deterrence purposes. This article argues that states may use captivity to deter not only traditional military threats emanating from other states, but also perceived threats to regime security posed by non-state actors, including individuals, and that emotions are central to this process. The argument is illustrated through three empirical vignettes that show how the Chinese government has detained foreign academics, publishers, and NGO workers engaged in activities seen as threatening regime security. Detention is interpreted as attempts to deter such actors. While fear is often seen as key to successful deterrence, the article indicates that paying attention to other emotions can help better understand deterrence failure. Specifically, because captivity, and deterrence, involve the denial of the captive’s agency and may trigger feelings of humiliation and shame, it can backfire as the target of deterrence efforts might seek to act to regain agency.
Shipwrecks provide invaluable insights into human society and trade. Their unique preservation conditions also mean that they can serve as exceptional biobanks, recording traces of organisms carried aboard or arriving post wreck. Yet only limited research has explored the genetic potential of onboard sediments. Here, the authors present environmental and metagenomic analyses of sediments contained in a large amphora from the 150-year-old Yangzi Estuary II shipwreck. Weaving the results with historic texts, they reconstruct part of the history of the wrecked vessel, elucidating cargo-packing techniques, its likely season and port of sailing, and its ultimate submersion within the estuarine environment.
This article considers the responses of the Indian Workers’ Association (Great Britain) (IWA) to food scarcities in India during the late 1960s. It reveals Maoist optics informed IWA critiques, departing from coexistent appraisals articulated in leftist circles in India. In doing so, the article demonstrates the relevance of worldviews, idioms, and paradigms emanating from global conjunctures beyond places of origin among diaspora. IWA luminaries were embedded in revolutionary anti-colonial networks shaped by decolonization and the global Cold War, and bestowed substance upon Maoism in these contexts. Ultimately, this informed IWA perceptions of causes and solutions to the food ‘crisis’: in their characterizations of reliance on external aid as indicative of post-1947 India’s semi-colonial status; in portrayals of Soviet ‘social imperialism’ in India during the Sino-Soviet split; or in demands for radical land reform based on a selective rendering of the Chinese model, which downplayed the consequences of the ‘Great Leap Forward’.
Threats to the ability of democratically elected governments to drive and preserve their citizens’ economic development and thus promote their human rights are threats to the confidence of their citizens in democracy itself. Threats to the cyber resilience of critical infrastructure assets — that enable and preserve economic development — are threats to that very confidence. This chapter positions the technical backbones for digital public infrastructure (DPI), which delivers digitally native essential services, as critical infrastructure assets. This chapter uses the approach to DPI of the world’s largest democracy as a case study. It explores how India’s DPI — built per an open standards-based paradigm, implemented by protocols and Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) that comprise the ‘India Stack’ – operates at the scale of the world’s largest population. It finds the cyber resilience of the technical backbones for India’s DPI vital to India’s democratic resilience. This chapter thus calls on India to prosecute systemic cyber risks to these backbones that stem from the critical software running on them. India must incentivise vendors of that software to invest in the security of their software development life cycles and mitigate software supply chain risks. India must also manage open source software risks to its DPI appropriately. This chapter concludes by putting forward how India can export its approach and the India Stack. Other democracies, especially India’s Global South partners, stand to gain from its experience, including by strengthening the trust and confidence of their citizens in democracy itself, as well as by implementing norms for responsible state conduct in cyberspace that were approved by the United Nations General Assembly. Such benefits will be reinforced by Indian advice on how to deploy DPI in a cyber-resilient manner, informed by the multilateral consensus on DPI, software security and cyber resilience, which India forged as G20 President in 2023.