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In the past, the international system cycled through regular phases of global power concentration, deconcentration, and reconcentration. These phases correspond with varying levels of international order – from high-order maintenance during times of world leadership to complete disorder during global wars. Hegemonic war is one of four phases (along with the Dissent, Crisis, and World Power phases) that comprise the long cycle. It is the one phase that the world can no longer enter. This is good news for peace but bad news for global order. Hegemonic wars serve vital functions that provide international order. They clarify the actual power distribution (who has it and who does not) and establish who rules the global core, the distribution of territory, the nature of the world economy, and the order’s social purpose. How does world politics function when the long cycle stalls in place? The short answer is, not very well if the goal is order.
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