Current oil price speculations – broadly concerned with fuel substitution or technological supply constraints – hardly ever seem to account for the role of national oil companies (NOCs). This may be because NOCs, habitually secretive and subject to political discretion, typically do not render information in any timely, market-relevant way. Or it may reflect the perception that NOCs simply operate outside the realm of conventional market, corporate and regulatory controls. But it is the NOCs that, by some measure, control roughly 90% of the global hydrocarbon reserves and whose operating and investment decisions affect prices, demand adjustments, and also their own country's policy options. Recent endeavors to substitute analysis for prevailing economic and political clichés, clarify important but largely unconnected questions. This chapter charts an integrative approach. By way of introduction, section 1 ties current oil price discussions to conceivable supply adjustments and the importance of NOCs. Section 2 looks at NOCs – conceptually, historically and in current market contexts. Section 3 discusses NOC governance. Section 4 links NOCs to the challenges of steering resource-based economic development. Section 5 sums up.

Oil market evolution, supply-side adjustments and NOCs

In its 2005 forecast, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted a 51% growth of energy consumption over the next two decades up to the year 2030; oil is expected to remain the energy source of choice. Back-of-the-envelope calculations show that by 2050 the world will require double its current level of energy.