Hostname: page-component-76d6cb85b7-vdhp9 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2026-07-28T02:33:26.836Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Intermittent demand forecast in the aeronautical context: a comparative analysis of combination approaches

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 June 2026

Saymon Galvão Bandeira*
Affiliation:
Faculty of Sciences and Technology, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Aparecida de Goiânia, Brazil
Symone Gomes Soares Alcalá
Affiliation:
Faculty of Sciences and Technology, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Aparecida de Goiânia, Brazil
Rui Alexandre Matos Araújo
Affiliation:
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering (DEEC-UC), University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal
*
Corresponding author: Saymon Galvão Bandeira; Email: saymongalvao@discente.ufg.br

Abstract

Demand forecasting is a key component of planning in the aeronautical sector, where intermittent and irregular demand patterns pose significant challenges for decision-making processes. Forecast combinations have emerged as an effective strategy to improve predictive performance by leveraging the complementary strengths of diverse models. However, the quality of such combinations depends heavily on the generation schemes for combination weights. Existing learning approaches, particularly those based on meta-learning, have shown strong performance but can require substantial computational resources, limiting their practicality in large-scale or real-time environments. This study investigates LightGBM, a learning algorithm based on decision trees, as an efficient meta-learning tool for generating forecast combination weights in intermittent demand, using real data from the aeronautical sector. The current study proposes a forecasting combination framework in which LightGBM learns to assign weights based on time series features, allowing for flexible adaptation to diverse demand patterns. The method is compared to XGBoost, particle swarm optimisation and traditional combination approaches across multiple forecasting horizons. The experiments include a diverse pool of standard forecasting models with parameter variations grounded in the literature, ensuring a wider range of behaviours and method diversity. Results show that the LightGBM combination achieves forecasting accuracy comparable to XGBoost (slightly better in some cases), while consistently reducing training times by $96.11{\rm{\% }}$ on average compared to state-of-the-art approaches. These findings demonstrate that the proposed LightGBM provides a scalable, high-performance solution for forecast combinations, particularly suited to environments with intermittent demand patterns.

Information

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Royal Aeronautical Society

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

Supplementary material: File

Bandeira et al. supplementary material

Bandeira et al. supplementary material
Download Bandeira et al. supplementary material(File)
File 1.1 MB