A Unified Theory of Party Competition: A Cross-National Analysis Integrating Spatial and Behavioral Factors

James F. Adams; Samuel Merrill III; Bernard Grofman

doi:10.1017/CBO9780511614453

This book integrates spatial and behavioral perspectives - in a word, those of the Rochester and Michigan schools - into a unified theory of voter choice and party strategy. The theory encompasses both policy and non-policy factors, effects of turnout, voter discounting of party promises, expectations of coalition governments, and party motivations based on policy as well as office. Optimal (Nash equilibrium) strategies are determined for alternative models for presidential elections in the US and France, and for parliamentary elections in Britain and Norway. These polities cover a wide range of electoral rules, number of major parties, and governmental structures. The analyses suggest that the more competitive parties generally take policy positions that come close to maximizing their electoral support, and that these vote-maximizing positions correlate strongly with the mean policy positions of their supporters.

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Contents

Frontmatter
pp i-iv
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Contents
pp v-ix
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List of Tables and Figures
pp x-xvi
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Acknowledgments
pp xvii-xviii
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A Unified Theory of Party Competition
pp xix-xx
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1 - Modeling Party Competition
pp 1-14
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2 - How Voters Decide: The Components of the Unified Theory of Voting
pp 15-27
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3 - Linking Voter Choice to Party Strategies: Illustrating the Role of Nonpolicy Factors
pp 28-51
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4 - Factors Influencing the Link between Party Strategy and the Variables Affecting Voter Choice: Theoretical Results
pp 52-71
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5 - Policy Competition under the Unified Theory: Empirical Applications to the 1988 French Presidential Election
pp 72-93
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6 - Policy Competition under the Unified Theory: Empirical Applications to the 1989 Norwegian Parliamentary Election
pp 94-116
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7 - The Threat of Abstention: Candidate Strategies and Policy Representation in U.S. Presidential Elections
pp 117-131
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8 - Candidate Strategies with Voter Abstention in U.S. Presidential Elections: 1980, 1984, 1988, 1996, and 2000
pp 132-151
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9 - Policy Competition in Britain: The 1997 General Election
pp 152-169
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10 - The Consequences of Voter Projection: Assimilation and Contrast Effects
pp 170-183
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11 - Policy-Seeking Motivations of Parties in Two-Party Elections: Theory
pp 184-200
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12 - Policy-Seeking Motivations of Parties in Two-Party Elections: Empirical Analysis
pp 201-226
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13 - Concluding Remarks
pp 227-240
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Appendix 1.1 - Literature Review: Work Linking Behavioral Research to Spatial Modeling
pp 241-244
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Appendix 2.1 - Alternative Statistical Models of Voter Choice
pp 245-246
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Appendix 2.2 - Controversies in Voting Research: The Electoral Impact of Party Identification
pp 247-250
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Appendix 2.3 - Relationship between the Unified Discounting Model and the Directional Model of Rabinowitz and Macdonald
pp 251-253
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Appendix 3.1 - Spatial Models That Incorporate Valence Dimensions of Candidate Evaluation
pp 254-257
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Appendix 4.1 - Uniqueness Theorem and Algorithm for Computing Nash Equilibria
pp 258-262
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Appendix 4.2 - Proof of Theorem 4.1
pp 263-264
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Appendix 4.3 - Simulation Analysis and an Approximation Formula for Nash Equilibria
pp 265-267
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Appendix 4.4 - Derivations of Formulas Relating Electoral Factors to the Shrinkage Factor, ck
pp 268-269
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Appendix 6.1 - Equilibria for Outcome-Oriented Motivations: The Kedar Model
pp 270-274
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Appendix 7.1 - Proof of Lemma 7.1
pp 275-276
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Appendix 7.2 - Derivations for the Unified Turnout Model
pp 277-278
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A Unified Theory of Party Competition

A Cross-National Analysis Integrating Spatial and Behavioral Factors

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