Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home
Hostname: page-component-56f9d74cfd-mgjtl Total loading time: 0.342 Render date: 2022-06-27T22:20:35.004Z Has data issue: true Feature Flags: { "shouldUseShareProductTool": true, "shouldUseHypothesis": true, "isUnsiloEnabled": true, "useRatesEcommerce": false, "useNewApi": true }

Book contents

14 - Inside the Planning Fallacy: The Causes and Consequences of Optimistic Time Predictions

from PART ONE - THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL EXTENSIONS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 June 2012

Roger Buehler
Affiliation:
Psychology Department Wilfrid Laurier University
Dale Griffin
Affiliation:
Department of Commerce University of British Columbia
Michael Ross
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology University of Waterloo
Thomas Gilovich
Affiliation:
Cornell University, New York
Dale Griffin
Affiliation:
Stanford University, California
Daniel Kahneman
Affiliation:
Princeton University, New Jersey
Get access

Summary

Individuals, organizations, and governments all commonly plan projects and estimate when they will be completed. Kahneman and Tversky (1979) suggested that such estimates tend to be optimistic because planners rely on their best-case plans for a current project even though similar tasks in the past have typically run late. As a result of this planning fallacy, predicted completion times for specific future tasks tend to be more optimistic than can be justified by the actual completion times or by the predictors' general beliefs about the amount of time such tasks usually take.

Anecdotal evidence of the planning fallacy abounds. The history of grand construction projects is rife with optimistic and even unrealistic predictions (Hall, 1980), yet current planners seem to be unaffected by this bleak history. One recent example is the Denver International Airport, which opened 16 months late in 1995 with a construction-related cost overrun of $3.1 billion; when interest payments are added, the total cost is 300% greater than initially projected. The Eurofighter, a joint defense project of a number of European countries, was scheduled to go into service in 1997 with a total project cost of 20 billion Eurodollars; it is currently expected to be in service in 2002 with a total cost of some 45 billion Eurodollars. One of the most ambitious regional mega-projects is Boston's Central Artery/Tunnel expressway project, originally scheduled to open in 1999. The project is currently forecast to open 5 years late and double the original budget.

Type
Chapter
Information
Heuristics and Biases
The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment
, pp. 250 - 270
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2002

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)
60
Cited by

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×