Introduction

Projections of future climate and its impacts on society and the environment have been crucial for the emergence of climate change as a global problem for public policy and decision-making. Climate projections are based on a variety of scenarios, models and simulations which contain a number of embedded assumptions. Central to much of the discussion surrounding adaptation to climate change is the claim – explicit or implicit – that decision-makers need accurate, and increasingly precise, assessments of the future impacts of climate change in order to adapt successfully. According to Füssel (2007), ‘the effectiveness of pro-active adaptation to climate change often depends on the accuracy of regional climate and impact projections, which are subject to substantial uncertainty’. Similarly, Gagnon-Lebrun and Agrawala (2006) note that the level of certainty associated with climate change and impact projections is often key to determining the extent to which such information can be used to formulate appropriate adaptation responses. If true, these claims place a high premium on accurate and precise climate predictions at a range of geographical and temporal scales. But is effective adaptation tied to the ability of the scientific enterprise to predict future climate with accuracy and precision?

This chapter addresses this important question by investigating whether or not the lack of accurate climate predictions represents a limit – or perceived limit – to adaptation.