Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications

doi:10.1017/CBO9780511611308

Decision analysis is a prescriptive theory that aids individuals or groups confronted with complex problems in a wide variety of contexts. By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book is a mixture of historical and forward-looking essays on key topics in decision analysis. Part I covers the history and foundations of decision analysis. Part II discusses structuring decision problems, including the development of objectives and their attributes, and influence diagrams. Part III discusses probabilities and their elicitation and Bayes nets. Part IV discusses additive and multiplicative utilities, risk preferences, and 'option pricing' methods. Part V discusses risk analysis. Part VI puts decision analysis in a behavioral and organizational context. Part VII presents case studies of applications.

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Contents

Frontmatter
pp i-iv
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Contents
pp v-viii
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List of Contributors
pp ix-x
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Preface
pp xi-xvi
- By Ward Edwards, University of Southern California, Ralph F. Miles, Jr., Consultant in risk and decision analysis, Detlof von Winterfeldt, Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering and of Public Policy and Management, University of Southern California (USC)
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1 - Introduction
pp 1-12
- By Ward Edwards, Department of Psychology, University of Southern California, Ralph F. Miles, Jr., Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Detlof von Winterfeldt, Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California
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PART I - HISTORY AND FOUNDATIONS OF DECISION ANALYSIS
pp 13-13
- By Ward Edwards, University of Southern California, Ralph F. Miles, Jr., Consultant in risk and decision analysis, Detlof von Winterfeldt, Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering and of Public Policy and Management, University of Southern California (USC)
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2 - The Emergence of Decision Analysis
pp 13-31
- By Ralph F. Miles, Jr., Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
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3 - The Foundations of Decision Analysis Revisited
pp 32-56
- By Ronald A. Howard, Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University
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4 - Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It Got Started and Evolved
pp 57-70
- By Howard Raiffa, Harvard Business School and the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
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5 - Reflections on the Contributions of Ward Edwards to Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research
pp 71-80
- By Lawrence D. Phillips, Department of Operational Research, London School of Economics and Political Science, Detlof von Winterfeldt, Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California
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PART II - STRUCTURING DECISION PROBLEMS
pp 81-81
- By Ward Edwards, University of Southern California, Ralph F. Miles, Jr., Consultant in risk and decision analysis, Detlof von Winterfeldt, Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering and of Public Policy and Management, University of Southern California (USC)
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6 - Defining a Decision Analytic Structure
pp 81-103
- By Detlof Von Winterfeldt, Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California, Ward Edwards, Department of Psychology, University of Southern California
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7 - Developing Objectives and Attributes
pp 104-128
- By Ralph L. Keeney, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University
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PART III - PROBABILITIES AND BAYES NETS
pp 129-129
- By Ward Edwards, University of Southern California, Ralph F. Miles, Jr., Consultant in risk and decision analysis, Detlof von Winterfeldt, Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering and of Public Policy and Management, University of Southern California (USC)
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8 - Eliciting Probabilities from Experts
pp 129-153
- By Stephen C. Hora, College of Business and Economics, University of Hawaii-Hilo
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9 - Aggregating Probability Distributions
pp 154-176
- By Robert T. Clemen, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Robert L. Winkler, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University
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10 - Model Building with Belief Networks and Influence Diagrams
pp 177-201
- By Ross D. Shachter, Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University
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11 - A Bayesian Approach to Learning Causal Networks
pp 202-220
- By David Heckerman, Machine Learning and Applied Statistics Group, Microsoft Research
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PART IV - UTILITIES
pp 221-221
- By Ward Edwards, University of Southern California, Ralph F. Miles, Jr., Consultant in risk and decision analysis, Detlof von Winterfeldt, Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering and of Public Policy and Management, University of Southern California (USC)
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12 - Utility and Risk Preferences
pp 221-231
- By David E. Bell, Harvard Business School, Harvard University
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13 - Practical Value Models
pp 232-252
- By Ralph L. Keeney, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Detlof von Winterfeldt, Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California
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14 - Extensions of the Subjective Expected Utility Model
pp 253-278
- By Robert F. Nau, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University
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PART V - RISK ANALYSIS
pp 279-279
- By Ward Edwards, University of Southern California, Ralph F. Miles, Jr., Consultant in risk and decision analysis, Detlof von Winterfeldt, Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering and of Public Policy and Management, University of Southern California (USC)
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15 - Probabilistic Risk Analysis for Engineered Systems
pp 279-301
- By Vicki M. Bier, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Louis Anthony Cox, Jr., Cox Associates and University of Colorado
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16 - The Engineering Risk-Analysis Method and Some Applications
pp 302-324
- By M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University
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17 - Health Risk Analysis for Risk-Management Decision-Making
pp 325-350
- By Anthony (tony) Cox, Jr., Cox Associates and University of Colorado
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PART VI - DECISION ANALYSIS IN A BEHAVIORAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT
pp 351-351
- By Ward Edwards, University of Southern California, Ralph F. Miles, Jr., Consultant in risk and decision analysis, Detlof von Winterfeldt, Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering and of Public Policy and Management, University of Southern California (USC)
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18 - What Have We Learned from Our Mistakes?
pp 351-374
- By Barbara Mellers, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, Connson Locke, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley
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19 - Decision Conferencing
pp 375-399
- By Lawrence D. Phillips, Department of Operational Research, London School of Economics and Political Science
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20 - Resource Allocation Decisions
pp 400-418
- By Don N. Kleinmuntz, School of Policy, Planning, and Development, University of Southern California
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From Foundations to Applications

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