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4 - African Population, 1650–2000: Comparisons and Implications of New Estimates

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 September 2014

By
Patrick Manning
Edited by
Emmanuel Akyeampong ,
Robert H. Bates ,
Nathan Nunn  and
James Robinson
Patrick Manning
Affiliation:
University of Pittsburgh
Emmanuel Akyeampong
Affiliation:
Harvard University, Massachusetts
Robert H. Bates
Affiliation:
Harvard University, Massachusetts
Nathan Nunn
Affiliation:
Harvard University, Massachusetts
James Robinson
Affiliation:
Harvard University, Massachusetts
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Summary

New and comprehensive estimates of African population, at regional and continental levels, suggest that from the seventeenth to the twentieth century the continent’s population was much larger in size yet growing at a slower rate than previously thought. In a project that is nearing completion, Scott Nickleach and I, with the assistance of Yun Zhang, Brian McGill, and Bowen Yi, are projecting African populations from 1950 back to 1650. The analysis relies on a combination of methods that account for decennial and regional estimates of net growth rates, effects of various social and environmental factors, and especially the demographic impact of enslavement and the attendant migration and mortality. Two hypotheses – a dense early modern African population and a decline in African population because of slave trade – are linked tightly together.

The present chapter focuses on the social implications of this new demographic argument. It begins with a concise summary of the new estimates at continental and regional levels, a comparison with previously accepted figures, and a brief exploration of the plausibility of the new figures. The bulk of this chapter discusses global comparisons of African population estimates and focuses especially on the main economic and social implications of these new estimates for our understanding of African history.

Type
Chapter
Information
Africa's Development in Historical Perspective , pp. 131 - 150
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2014

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