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Appendix - Don’t be fooled by statistics

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 December 2013

N. I. Fisher
Affiliation:
ValueMetrics, Australia
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Summary

The only statistics I trust are those I made up myself.

W. S. Churchill

There is no data that can be displayed in a pie chart, that cannot be displayed BETTER in some other type of chart.

John W. Tukey

Numerical quantities focus on expected values, graphical summaries on unexpected values.

John W. Tukey

I never touch statistics. I just deal with the facts.

F. J. Vine

Lucky Fred (Vine)! Unfortunately, the rest of us have to deal with the real world, which is pervaded by uncertainty. It behoves anyone being presented with quantitative information in the form of individual numbers, tables and graphs to gain an understanding of what all this stuff means. After all, if it’s being presented to you, you may well be accountable for what it all implies. So, to help you elicit this information, here are some basic questions to ask.

  1. How reliable is this number?/What sort of error do you associate with this number?

  2. How do you know it has changed significantly from last month’s (last quarter’s) number?

  3. Where is the trend chart for these numbers?

  4. Is that apparent increase/decrease/cyclic effect in this trend chart really meaningful?

  5. What is the justification for using so many significant digits/decimal points?

  6. How representative was the sample used to calculate these numbers? How was the sample collected? What biases might be present? How do you know you collected sufficient data to produce a reliable estimate? What demographic factors do you think might affect this number?

  7. Why are you presenting a pie chart instead of a dot chart?

  8. Why are you presenting a divided bar chart instead of some dot charts?

  9. If we’re supposed to be seeing a pattern in the data, why aren’t we looking at graphs instead of tables?

  10. How do you predict these numbers will change in the future, and what is the uncertainty in your forecasts?

  11. Why is this a realistic target? How do you know the system is capable of achieving it?

Type
Chapter
Information
Analytics for Leaders
A Performance Measurement System for Business Success
, pp. 199 - 200
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2013

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