Introduction

Early in the twenty-first century, a nexus of globalization, climate change, and geopolitics is shaping the future of the maritime Arctic. The implications of these forces have never been more compelling for Arctic marine transport. Exploration and development of the Arctic's vast natural resources, such as oil, gas, and hard minerals (e.g., nickel, copper, zinc), have been driven by high commodity prices and worldwide demand, and the result is that the Arctic is becoming much more integrated with the global economy. Importantly, most of these activities rely on marine transport systems. At the same time, the Arctic's sea ice cover is undergoing a historic transformation – thinning, extent reduction in all seasons, and reduction in the area of multiyear ice in the central Arctic Ocean. These changes allow for increases in marine access throughout the Arctic Ocean and for potential longer seasons of navigation and possibly transarctic voyages in the summer. Surface ships in recent years have also reached previously difficult coastal areas and remote regions of the central Arctic Ocean. In addition, the ongoing process for delimitation of the outer continental shelf in the Arctic Ocean under article 76 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) presents unique marine challenges for gathering data and adds to the already complex geopolitics influencing the future of the maritime Arctic. Taken together, these changes present very real challenges to the existing legal and regulatory structures governing marine safety and environmental protection, and to the general lack of adequate marine infrastructure in most of the Arctic. However, the evolving process of moving to an integrated system of rules and regulations for Arctic navigation will have to be sensitive to the basic principles of freedom of navigation and the overall security concerns of the Arctic states.