Key technologies

We started by examining all of the known new technologies currently ‘on the wireless horizon’ or, in some cases, much closer to implementation.

We looked at fourth-generation cellular systems and noted that they might bring some advantages in terms of both higher data rates and more efficient use of spectrum. With new spectrum becoming available to cellular operators in bands such as UHF (between 500 and 800 MHz), 2.6 GHz and 3.4 GHz, there is an inclination to use this for a new generation of technology rather than deploying more 3G, and this additional spectrum alone will provide much additional capacity. However, with cellular capacity rapidly being consumed by data, end users might not notice a substantial difference on going from 3G to 4G – instead the technology may be more about reducing the operator's cost base. A major question mark over 4G is the extent to which MIMO can bring benefits in real deployments; if it does not, then many of the promised gains of 4G will not prove to be real.

Femtocells are a topic of much current interest. We are certain that there will be small cells in the home – indeed, there already are WiFi hotspots in many. What is less clear is whether femtocells will be deployed in addition to WiFi. Much of this depends on the business models of the cellular operators; already different operators are deploying different models.